Jackstraw Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 I'm not sure I buy this thing still having 165 mph top wind at landfall. Andrew had 165 mph wind with about the same pressure at landfall, but Andrew was rapidly strengthening with a very healthy inner core while Patricia had already filled 40 mb and was steadily weakening at landfall. It's been my experience that sustained surface winds very seldom verify when landfalling TC's are in a weakening stage as opposed to when they are in a strengthening phase, when they can not only verify but even be more violent than forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 I'm just so glad that it went through an ERC right before landfall. Think of all the lives and property saved. I would have hated to see something so disastrous and unprecedented in its destruction. I followed this thread all day and clicked refresh on the satellite floater page every 5 minutes hoping that it would go from a category 7 to a category 4 before anyone on the ground had to experience it or take a video of it. The emotional climax of knowing that the 25-30 people in the direct path of the eyewall are only experiencing category 4 hurricane conditions instead of global record-breaking winds was well worth the 8 hours of wasted production at work. Human well-being fetish satiated. Well said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 So we've only actually measured storms "accurately" for about 40-50 years? According to TWC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 Video of the winds at landfall: https://twitter.com/RafaAlcalde1/status/657703826598694912 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 Video of the winds at landfall: https://twitter.com/RafaAlcalde1/status/657703826598694912 That's like 100 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 Video of the winds at landfall in Puerto Vallarta: https://twitter.com/RafaAlcalde1/status/657703826598694912 Love to see some footage of the swells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 That's like 100 MPH. And? The Cat 5 winds are in the eyewall, which is far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 Video of the winds at landfall in Puerto Vallarta: https://twitter.com/RafaAlcalde1/status/657703826598694912 Lol it grazed Puerto Vallarta and the winds were offshore, has to be from another event or in taken at a different location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 Lol it grazed Puerto Valaria and the winds were offshore, has to be from another event or in taken at a different location. I think you are correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 I'm just so glad that it went through an ERC right before landfall. Think of all the lives and property saved. I would have hated to see something so disastrous and unprecedented in its destruction. I followed this thread all day and clicked refresh on the satellite floater page every 5 minutes hoping that it would go from a category 7 to a category 4 before anyone on the ground had to experience it or take a video of it. The emotional climax of knowing that the 25-30 people in the direct path of the eyewall are only experiencing category 4 hurricane conditions instead of global record-breaking winds was well worth the 8 hours of wasted production at work. Human well-being fetish satiated. Not sure about that. RMW is likely larger now due to the ERC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 I think you are correct. Other than my selling of Vallarta which I tried to fix. Fake videos get circulated every storm, hopefully the next 200mph storm hits these trolls dead on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 Guadalajara getting in on the impacts now. wind and rain starting there now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 It's not the most populated area. Bet the real scope of things won't be discovered until the AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 I was really hoping TWC would interview Josh one more time, but I'm running out of patience Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 Good news is from a met standpoint we saw arguably the strongest storm the world has ever seen which also likely won't cause a huge loss of life but some can chase a formidable storm and we received good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 To be honest, given that this system has weakened even faster than it intensified, plus the fact that I've never seen a 130+ kt cyclone without an intact inner core, I think that this is 115-120 kt tops at landfall with a central pressure in the low to mid 940s (based on extrapolation from the recon data and filling rate, plus satellite/radar trends). It's basically comparable to Kenna 2002, which attained Category 5 status but then rapidly weakened to a 120-kt hurricane before landfall. This system may even be a bit weaker than Kenna. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 I was really hoping TWC would interview Josh one more time, but I'm running out of patience He's probably too busy shooting film. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 He's probably too busy shooting film. The worst of the core has likely passed and it's dark now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALhurricane Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 Apparently this weather ob went online this morning and is located at a research site. Let the speculation begin if it is legit. http://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=CCXJ1&unit=0&timetype=LOCAL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 The worst of the core has likely passed and it's dark now. exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 MIke Smith reported that a Mexican station came in with 183 mph winds. Not sure what hte elevation was or the veracity of the observation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 Apparently this weather ob went online this morning and is located at a research site. Let the speculation begin if it is legit. http://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=CCXJ1&unit=0&timetype=LOCAL 90m elevation at a biological research station. http://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/station_total.cgi?stn=CCXJ1&unit=0 No info on the type of instrument or siting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 It's almost physically impossible to see one for a TC moving north under the influence of a mid-latitude system. True bonifide Cat 5 landfalls are only possible in the deep tropics with a westerly moving TC - Haiyan, Bopha, Dean, Gilbert, Labor Day 1935, Janet, etc. Camille wasn't bona-fide? Sent from my SM-G900R7 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 Camille wasn't bona-fide? Sent from my SM-G900R7 Camille hit at 170 MPH, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 Camille hit at 170 MPH, right?175 per the NHC reanalysis that was done last year Sent from my SM-G900R7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 Josh didn't seem impressed. The rear quadrant was likely stronger than the front... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/2015_20E/webManager/displayGifsBy12hr_04.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 From 11pm NHC disco An unconfirmed sustained wind report of 185 mph and a gust to 211mph was received from a NOAA/NWS Hydrometeorological Automated DataSystem (HADS) elevated station (295 ft) at Chamela-Cuixmala, Mexiconear the time of landfall. This observation should be consideredunofficial until it has been quality controlled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 Not much can withstand 210+ mph wind gusts. Amazed at these reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 Good news is from a met standpoint we saw arguably the strongest storm the world has ever seen which also likely won't cause a huge loss of life but some can chase a formidable storm and we received good one. So Patty is worse than those western pacific Super Typhoon bitches? I feel like those are consistently just awful..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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