nycwinter Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 this storm will still devastate the area it's close to.. it's stronger than andrew or katrina.. just because it weakened does not mean incredible damage and loss of many lives will not still happen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 this storm will still devastate the area it's close to.. it's stronger than andrew or katrina.. just because it weakened does not mean incredible damage and loss of many lives will not still happen... I'd bet money the winds are less than andrew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 165 knots, 900mb pressure for the 5pm advisoryESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 900 MBEYE DIAMETER 5 NMMAX SUSTAINED WINDS 165 KT WITH GUSTS TO 205 KT.64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.34 KT.......150NE 110SE 80SW 120NW.12 FT SEAS..120NE 330SE 270SW 300NW.WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICALMILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. Doesn't take into account recon then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Even a historic hurricane can't defy physics and maintain an incredibly strong, tiny inner core forever... especially as it begins to feel the pull of a trough and exits the region of perfect conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 I'd bet money the winds are less than andrew. Agreed! Suspect the NHC was being very conservative on the decrease in the MSW on that advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 So the question is will they determine that at one point sustained winds were greater than 200 mph? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 the inner eye as seen on this earlier radar image must have collapsed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 L. Eye Character (Undecoded): WEAKER WALL N-NEM. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 5 nautical miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 seems to be weakening rapidly the last few frames that mountainous terrain ere cycle.. taking it's toll.. unlike the flat land andrew had to cross in florida.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 I'd bet money the winds are less than andrew. Why? This thing had the most impressive reconnaissance readings we've ever seen in the western Hemisphere. 191-203 knot flight level winds are just insane...and everyone here knows that this was far below the 879mb that was recorded earlier today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 So the question is will they determine that at one point sustained winds were greater than 200 mph? My best guess would be that they will increase the peak MSW to 180 knots in post-season analysis. The satellite intensity estimates increased between Recon flights and they found a slightly lower pressure when they finally got back in there this afternoon. Thus, one would presume the peak intensity occurred between the two Recon flights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Doesn't look like they considered the newer recon data: A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported that Patricia changedlittle in intensity through about 1800 UTC. The aircraft measured192 kt flight-level winds at 700 mb in the southeastern eyewall,with a 166 kt surface wind estimate from the Stepped FrequencyMicrowave radiometer. The central pressure estimated from an eyedropsonde was 879 mb. Since that time, the eye has becomecloud-filled, and data from the plane suggest the formation of anouter wind maximum, with decreasing winds in the eyewall, and anincreasing central pressure. All of these indicate that thehurricane is weakening. The initial intensity is reduced to 165 kt,and this could be generous. Patricia is expected to remain aCategory 5 hurricane until landfall in southwestern Mexico in a fewhours. After landfall, a combination of the mountainous terrain ofMexico and increasing shear should cause the cyclone to rapidlyweaken, with the system likely to dissipate completely after 36hours, if not sooner.Patricia is now moving north-northeastward with an initial motionof 015/12. The cyclone is recurving into the westerlies between amid-level anticyclone to its east and a deep-layer trough overnorthwestern Mexico and the southwestern U. S., and a faster motiontoward the north-northeast is expected for the rest of the cyclone'slife. The new forecast track is shifted a little to the east of theprevious track based on the initial position and motion. It liesnear the center of the guidance envelope at 12 hours and little tothe left of the center after that time.The global models continue to depict the development of a cyclonenear the Texas coast over the weekend. This system should benon-tropical in nature. However, this cyclone is expected to drawsignificant amounts of moisture from Patricia's remnants, and couldresult in locally heavy rainfall over portions of the northwesternGulf of Mexico coastal area within the next few days. Refer tostatements from local National Weather Service forecast offices fordetails. Of course, winds could still be fairly strong in the Northeast and Southwest quadrants. I don't imagine the recon will do a 3rd flyby, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueheronNC Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 2056z image - no more eastern eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Why? This thing had the most impressive reconnaissance readings we've ever seen in the western Hemisphere. 191 flight level winds are just insane. The latest pass showed a distinct weakening of the inner eye wall and a pressure rise of 21mb. This flattened out the gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Why? This thing had the most impressive reconnaissance readings we've ever seen in the western Hemisphere. 191 flight level winds are just insane. He's talking about its current intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 The latest pass showed a distinct weakening of the inner eye wall and a pressure rise of 21mb. This flattened out the gradient. Oh I apologize, I misunderstood. I thought you were talking about the overall intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Dropsonde reported 910mb with 68kt surface wind. The pressure is likely 903-904mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Figured it should sneak an ERC in...usually do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Good thing it shouldn't have time to finish. I don't think an ERC can get done in less than 2 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 A rapid ERC was the best possible scenario. The storm won't have time for the outter eyewall to ramp up a powerful new gradiant. We're still looking at an incredibly dangerous situation, but an ERC right at landfall was the best possible scenario because the core wasn't being inhibited by negative outside influences yet (i.e. inflow and the mountains) as it is still a small core. Not downplaying, it's just a far better scenario having a weakening vortex making landfall than a 190mph vortex making landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 A rapid ERC was the best possible scenario. The storm won't have time for the outter eyewall to ramp up a powerful new gradiant. We're still looking an incredibly dangerous situation, but an ERC right at landfall was the best possible scenario because the core wasn't being inhibited by negative outside influences yet (i.e. inflow and the mountains) as it is still a small core. Not downplaying, it's just a far better scenario having a weakening vortex making landfall than a 190mph vortex making landfall. Yea, it's gone from an unprecedented, unimaginable strike, to an extreme, yet ordinary one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Actually, it looks as if the more westerly short-term track caused it to track outside the most favorable upper-level conditions and into an area of stronger southerly shear near the jet entrance region. The small inner core has yet to feel the full influence of the mountains, so I doubt that land interaction has played much of a role in the rapid weakening. I'd say shear plus ERC has done Patricia in, though it will still be a strong Category 4 hurricane at landfall (125-130 kt) in the post-seasonal analysis, most probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Doesn't take into account recon then? They don't want to decrease the winds too much which will lull the public into a false sense of security. They'll definitely take into account the recon in post-analysis, will probably lower the max sustained winds at this time point by at least 20-30 kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Actually, it looks as if the more westerly short-term track caused it to track outside the most favorable upper-level conditions and into an area of stronger southerly shear near the jet entrance region. The small inner core has yet to feel the full influence of the mountains, so I doubt that land interaction has played much of a role in the rapid weakening. I'd say shear plus ERC has done Patricia in, though it will still be a strong Category 4 hurricane at landfall (125-130 kt) in the post-seasonal analysis, most probably. I would simply add that it's likely the ERC allowed drier air to be entrained into the circulation due to its proximity to land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Yea, it's gone from an unprecedented, unimaginable strike, to an extreme, yet ordinary one. A high-end Cat 4 is hardly "ordinary"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Yeah so sad we couldn't see a 200 mph strike. It's almost physically impossible to see one for a TC moving north under the influence of a mid-latitude system. True bonifide Cat 5 landfalls are only possible in the deep tropics with a westerly moving TC - Haiyan, Bopha, Dean, Gilbert, Labor Day 1935, Janet, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 I'd say Patricia will be more like a Charley or Hugo at landfall than a Camille or Andrew. It essentially has no inner eye wall left and shear looks to be getting to it. It doesn't take long for a Cat 5 house of cards to fall if something goes out of place. Still devastating but not what could have been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Yeah, it's too soon to say anyone is lucky. Though I'd imagine Josh wanted to punch a high end cat 5 again, this thing would have wrought unimaginable death and destruction to anyone and anything not in a concrete bunker. They're still going to be devestated. Not to call a spade a spade, but you're either living well in that part of the world or in a tin can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Hope you're joking! This substantial reduction in intensity likely has saved many lives. I think you're focusing too much on the winds. Most of Mexico's deadliest tropical cyclone-related disasters have resulted from flash floods/heavy rainfall, not extreme winds (including the 1959 hurricane, most of whose 1,000+ deaths were from mudslides). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 It should be noted that a hurricane such as this will still likely bring extreme wind gusts...far exceeding the typical sustained wind to gust ratio. As a result, I won't be surprised if Josh reports of more turbulent type wind gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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