wxeyeNH Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Mexico is sure lucky with this track. In these super intense storms the real crazy winds are really confined to a small area. I would guess that anyone more than 25 miles from the eye will not have super damaging winds except right along the beach to the right of where the eye comes ashore. So luckily a very, very small population is going to experience catastrophic wind conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Ya, I think the 1915z satellite frame will help. Maybe wait for that before making a decision! Moving a little to the east...trochoidal wobble in full effect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 I know puerto vallarta is not in the ground zero path, but i have a friend riding out in a shelter there, which is actually a preschool (concrete structure with windows) 150 ft above sea level.. Winds there i imagine wont get above minimal hurricane force, you guys think shes fine with the windows even? Based on my own experience with similar wind intensity, she should be. Regardless, it's always best to stay away from windows due to prospective flying debris. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 I was simply correcting your poorly worded conjecture. Perhaps you should use the scientific method and try to prove why your hypothesis is false. You have me on this one. I should have stated 'To the best of our knowledge, Hurricane Patricia is the strongest tropical cyclone in the history of reliable observations'. My apologies for harping on you, and then turning around and making a statement like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Looking at the latest radar scan from the aircraft, it looks like the eye is now open to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 edit.nm. given the look on the radar/satellite...looks like they probably missed the possibly strongest thanks to all that looping around and stalling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 As of now Josh is going to ride it out in Emiliano Zapata. Talked about moving back towards San Mateo, but at this point probably not a good idea. Just need one nice light bump to the right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 as amazing as this storm is from a weather standpoint.. it could have been even better.. why no recon this morning was baffling... to say the least.. and i don't know what been going on with the recon this afternoon.this storm stats could have been even more crazy but .. human decisions got into the way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 As of now Josh is going to ride it out in Emiliano Zapata. Talked about moving back towards San Mateo, but at this point probably not a good idea. Just need one nice light bump to the right. 20:15Z still got some east component to the motion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 The beginning of an ERC plus proximity to the south induce some slight weakening, don't think it has time to go below cat 5 prior to landfall though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cypress Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Where is data for this plane? http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Storm_pages/patricia2015/ https://noaahrd.wordpress.com/2015/10/23/doppler-radar-quick-looks-from-1100-am-p-3-flight-into-hurricane-patricia-22-october-2015/ It's a NASA plane: http://jsc-aircraft-ops.jsc.nasa.gov/wb57/index.html out of Houston, Ellington: https://flightaware.com/live/aircrafttype/WB57https://flightaware.com/live/airport/KEFD on a Tropical Cyclone Intensity Experiment mission, such as this one: http://catalog.eol.ucar.edu/tci/report/67/1127/139040/49637912 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 as amazing as this storm is from a weather standpoint.. it could have been even better.. why no recon this morning was baffling... to say the least.. and i don't know what been going on with the recon this afternoon.this storm stats could have been even more crazy but .. human decisions got into the way... The storm is what it is, regardless of whether recon samples it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Extrap 902.6mb, 83kt SFMR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 902.6mb extrapolated, 144FL, 131 SFMR.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 EST SFC Wind - (30seconds) 121.0 knots (~ 139.3 mph)Category Four Hurricane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 looks like the storm has weakened quite a bit...a few hours ago would have been different....i guess they wanted to wait till the last moment before landfall to make there final observations of the storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Definitely sone rapid weakening in the last pass. 144 kt flight level 131 kt sfmr. 902mb extrap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 As of now Josh is going to ride it out in Emiliano Zapata. Talked about moving back towards San Mateo, but at this point probably not a good idea. Just need one nice light bump to the right.Damn I nailed that spot from this AM in the other thread :cool: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 There's your rapid weakening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Definitely sone rapid weakening in the last pass. 144 kt flight level 131 kt sfmr. 902mb extrap That's in the NW quad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Dang terrain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 902 extrap. Better news for the folks down there. Still going to be a very bad situation, but at least it's not the worst case scenario (perhaps). Seems like ERC moreso than terrain at this point. Let's keep some perspective here and hope Josh gets his intercept. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 I really wish they had done a NE/SW pass instead of SE/NW... Stronger winds likely in the NE quad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 There's your rapid weakening. About time! Right when I essentially give up on it weakening substantially prior to landfall...Bam! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 That pressure rise shows how hard it is for a storm to maintain that intensity, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 That's in the NW quad. Right but I bet the inner small eye wall effectively collapsed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 the inner eye as seen on this earlier radar image must have collapsed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 902 extrap. Better news for the folks down there. Still going to be a very bad situation, but at least it's not the worst case scenario (perhaps). Seems like ERC moreso than terrain at this point. Let's keep some perspective here and hope Josh gets his intercept. It's likely a combination of both factors with drier air being able to penatrate the circulation due to the ERC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 165 knots, 900mb pressure for the 5pm advisory ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 900 MB EYE DIAMETER 5 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 165 KT WITH GUSTS TO 205 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT.......150NE 110SE 80SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 330SE 270SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.