SchaumburgStormer Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 The average decent rate for a commercial jet is 457.2 meters per 30 second interval. Nothing unusual there. Planned decent in decent weather. Unplanned decent in extreme turbulence would be less than desirable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 How does this compare to historic TCs? I'm prepared to be wrong about this, but I believe Haiyan maxed out at 8.1. Can someone confirm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 That is a planned descent. When you are flying along and then forced down 660 meters..it's a bit hairy.It's the acceleration from the jolt not the distance that probably tossed things around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 I'm prepared to be wrong about this, but I believe Haiyan maxed out at 8.1. Can someone confirm? I think you are correct...8.2 final is unprecedented. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 New frame is in... tough to say. Looks like it's turned a bit right, but I don't think it's far enough yet to be making a beeline for EZ. As usual, you guys are on top of things discussing the possibility of moving back further north. EDIT: On the other hand, the GOES West imagery makes it look like EZ is still perfect. Hooray for parallax. It was EZ or back to San Mateo. There were no real options between the two. Decided to wait for a few frames and wait it out in EZ. Once he were to move towards San Mateo there would be no coming back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasperk99 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Where can I find a looped satellite image from 3 days ago until now from depression to cat 5 in 3 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Gotta imagine recon only has enough fuel left for one more pass at this point. Hopefully everything's alright and they can at least get a second pass at the core Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 There are definite signs of an eyewall cycle going on now. The NASA MSFC infrared loop shows the eye shrinking by half over the last six hours, and it coninues to shrink. Also the loop shows signs of an inner and outer band of higher returns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Another plane is en route. Already close to the coast. Yay! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 NOAA killing it with the storm data! Our tax dollars at work for the weather weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Another plane is en route. Already close to the coast. Yay!Awesome. I don't think the NOAA Plane has enough fuel for more than one pass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Awesome. I don't think the NOAA Plane has enough fuel for more than one pass Probably more than enough...It's landfalling in about 2 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormkid Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 That second plane is Nasa's B57. At 60k ft looks like they are studying the atmosphere above Patricia. How often is that used in Hurricane research? http://www.nasa.gov/missions/research/b-57_feature.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Yea, I do hope that my immediate family lives, but....sorry if I cluttered the thread expressing it. Is there confirmation of the ERC? Shortwave or is good for that and it clearly shows an erc. The inner eye does usually hang on for a long time after the new one starts forming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Where can I find a looped satellite image from 3 days ago until now from depression to cat 5 in 3 days? Something like this? https://pbs.twimg.com/tweet_video/CSAOUzpWwAAKS2v.mp4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 NASA's Hurricane Web Page Just now · EASTERN PACIFIC - A Look at Patricia's Strongest WindsStrongest sustained winds wrapped around Hurricane Patricia's eye (red) as seen in the International Space Station's Rapid Scat Instrument on October 22 at 11 p.m. EDT.Right now, Patricia's maximum sustained winds remain near 200 mph (325 km/h) with higher gusts.Patricia is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Patricia's center was about 85 miles (135 km) southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Full update to follow shortly. Latest forecasts from the National Hurricane Center: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Credit: NASA/JPL, Doug Tyler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 So much for my expectation of weakening to a 140-155 kt. hurricane prior to landfall. I'm shocked that's it's been able to maintain such an unbelievable intensity for so long! I've been tracking/forecasting TCs since before doing a student internship at the NHC in 1986 (and again in 1994), and I've never seen such a stable eye for a relatively comparable system! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 That second plane is Nasa's B57. At 60k ft looks like they are studying the atmosphere above Patricia. How often is that used in Hurricane research? http://www.nasa.gov/missions/research/b-57_feature.html The WB-57 is equipped with a dropsonde system that can launch at a crazy fast rate, but it is not certain that they will try to go for the eye. They might be trying to blanket the storm at a larger scale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 The ERC simply won't have time to induce substantial weakening given the faster movement. I'd say a Haiyan-style landfall (160-165 kt, perhaps even a bit stronger) looks very likely now. This would put the storm in contention for the strongest landfall on record, rivaling or exceeding Haiyan and the 1935 Labor Day hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 That second plane is Nasa's B57. At 60k ft looks like they are studying the atmosphere above Patricia. How often is that used in Hurricane research? http://www.nasa.gov/missions/research/b-57_feature.html Where is data for this plane? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Where is data for this plane? Not sure this is exactly right, but I think that the plane is on a Navy-funded research mission, so probably doesn't have real-time data available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 The ERC simply won't have time to induce substantial weakening given the faster movement. I'd say a Haiyan-style landfall (160-165 kt, perhaps even a bit stronger) looks very likely now. Agreed! Not to mention the broadening of the wind field that an ERC will induce. Not necessarily that helpful at this point! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 https://www.yumpu.com/en/document/view/11435690/have-there-been-any-typhoons-stronger-than-super-typhoon2000- The assertions in this article are still speculative. You earlier saw with this storm how significantly ADT numbers can sometimes give poor estimations for observed winds. In this case, the observed winds were higher than ADT estimates; however, there is certainly an error margin on ADT, and 'concluding' that unobserved storms that had ADT numbers a few decimal points higher simply isn't good science. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNovice Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 I just caught back up and was thinking why no one is praying for the NOAA hurricane hunter and bam... saw that tweet. Can't believe they can even fly through those conditions. Absolutely, those are so VERY brave folks, especially in going into this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Looks like the NOAA plane is now coming back through behind the NASA mission from flight tracks. Should get another pass for 5PM if all goes well I would assume. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 The clear, warm eye is beginning to disappear on the latest IR image, so a structure change is well underway. The recon plane is now flying due nw toward the eye again so perhaps they fixed the problem and are able to make one final eye pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 CNN coverage gives the impression that the worst of the storm is heading for Puerto Vallarta. This does not appear to be likely to happen. The worst damage from this landfall will probably be from Punta Perula to La Manzanilla. I was able to contact a resort just west of Punta Perula (too late for an evacuation anyway) and explained to them that they may or may not be in the high impact zone but just a few miles to their east, for sure there will be severe damage from wind and storm surge. I asked them if there was any chance they could contact key people in the small towns along the coast nearby to see if preparations were adequate and to stress the life or death situation developing. And I told them that I hoped they would be on the better side of the landfall, and what to expect either way. From their pictures, they look to have some fairly substantial structures just above the probable storm surge maximum, and I'm not sure if they have many guests in this off-season month. Anyway, all I can do at this point, perhaps they will interact with police or other key people in the towns between there and La Manzanilla before communications go down, and perhaps it will help, but having looked at the images on google earth for Punta Perula, you can see it is fairly wide open to wind and high storm surge (at least it is 8-10 metres above sea level which may help with the surge issues). Anyway, if anyone is hugely concerned about Puerto Vallarta, I think they are just going to get the tropical storm or cat-1 winds on the backside, the main impact zone will of course be east of the track and along the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Im just gonna repost this in case anyone wants it. Live coverage on Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RP5Y4lISF0s&feature=player_embedded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 I know puerto vallarta is not in the ground zero path, but i have a friend riding out in a shelter there, which is actually a preschool (concrete structure with windows) 150 ft above sea level.. Winds there i imagine wont get above minimal hurricane force, you guys think shes fine with the windows even? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Mountainous terrain starting to take it's toll on Patricia or is it just an ERC? It is likely a combination of the two. Been waiting for this to ultimately occur. Now, it's a matter of how much (how quickly) it weakens prior to landfall and how these structural changes will impact the wind field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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