Superstorm93 Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 Per Phil Klotzbach Patrica has intensified 65 knots in the past 24 hrs, the strongest 24-hr intensification this season in the N. Hem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 Per Phil Klotzbach And that will most probably get broken at 7PM CDT and probably again at 10PM CDT (55 kts at both times yesterday) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 Yes, and it's a very small system in terms of hurricane winds radius...Still, Puerto Vallarta could see a very rough day if it goes directly over them. Can't resist posting the 22:15Z image...if that it's not a Cat 5, I don't know what is avn0.gif GOES22302015295tXc9LN.jpg Raw T is 7.8!! That stupid 1.3T/6hr limit flag is knocking the adjT down to a 6.1. Too bad there is no recon, the 6hr pressure drop maybe coming close to Wilma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 Raw T is 7.8!! That stupid 1.3T/6hr limit flag is knocking the adjT down to a 6.1. Too bad there is no recon, the 6hr pressure drop maybe coming close to Wilma. It's times like these where the NHC needs to get more active recon from the Air Force. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 Raw T is 7.8!! That stupid 1.3T/6hr limit flag is knocking the adjT down to a 6.1. Too bad there is no recon, the 6hr pressure drop maybe coming close to Wilma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 I see your photogenic Patricia's image and raise it with the always favorable near sunset one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 Raw T# is at 8.0! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 Raw T# is at 8.0! Has there ever been one of those in the E Pacific? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 Has there ever been one of those in the E Pacific? Maybe Rick or Linda, but I have no proof 130kts at 7PM CDT...that makes it 75kts wind speed increase in 24 hours...and that will likely be broken at 10pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 Has that west pac super Typhoon look to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 Raw T# is at 8.0! No doubt there's been at least a 30mb pressure drop since recon left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 Just out of curiosity, what was the record set by Wilma for strengthening over a 24 hour period? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 No doubt there's been at least a 30mb pressure drop since recon left. Yeah, I'm pretty sure as well. The question is if they'll go with cat 5 in the next advisory, or wait for recon to confirm it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 Great now I have to find the FTP link that goes above 8.0 Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 Maybe Rick or Linda, but I have no proof 130kts at 7PM CDT...that makes it 75kts wind speed increase in 24 hours...and that will likely be broken at 10pm Peak 3 hr ADT for Rick was 7.5 per the report and Linda was a 7.5-8.0. Won't be surprised if we surpass the former here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 Almost a Cat 5 per the National Hurricane Center, I feel it already is, but, oh well. Hurricane PATRICIA Public Advisory Home Public Adv Fcst Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive 000WTPZ35 KNHC 222347TCPEP5BULLETINHURRICANE PATRICIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11ANWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015700 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE PATRICIA WITH 150-MPH WINDS HEADEDFOR SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION----------------------------------------------LOCATION...15.8N 104.8WABOUT 225 MI...360 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICOABOUT 325 MI...520 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICOMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...934 MB...27.58 INCHESWATCHES AND WARNINGS--------------------CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:NoneSUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...* San Blas to Punta San TelmoA Hurricane Watch is in effect for...* East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro CardenasA Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...* East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro CardenasA Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expectedsomewhere within the warning area, in this case within about 24hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed tocompletion.A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions areexpected somewhere within the warning area.A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possiblewithin the watch area.For storm information specific to your area, please monitorproducts issued by your national meteorological service.DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK------------------------------At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Patricia was locatednear latitude 15.8 North, longitude 104.8 West. Patricia is movingtoward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward thenorth is expected by early Friday, followed by a turn toward thenorth-northeast Friday night. On the forecast track, the core ofPatricia will make landfall in the hurricane warning area Fridayafternoon or evening.Satellite images indicate that Patricia has continued to intensifyand maximum sustained winds have reached near 150 mph (240 km/h)with higher gusts. Patricia is a category 4 hurricane on theSaffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Patricia could become acategory 5 hurricane overnight, and is expected to remain anextremely dangerous hurricane through landfall.Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from thecenter and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles(280 km).The estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb (27.58 inches).HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND----------------------WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach thehurricane warning area Friday afternoon or evening. Tropical stormconditions are expected to first reach the warning areas by latetonight or early Friday, making outside preparations difficult ordangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should berushed to completion today. Hurricane conditions are possible in thehurricane watch area late Friday.RAINFALL: Patricia is expected to produce total rainfallaccumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20inches, over the Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan andGuerrero later today into Saturday. These rains could producelife-threatening flash floods and mud slides.STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to producesignificant coastal flooding near and to the right of where thecenter makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompaniedby large and destructive waves.SURF: Swells generated by Patricia are already affecting portionsof the southern coast of Mexico, and will spread northwestwardduring the next day or so. These swells are likely to causelife-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consultproducts from your local weather office.NEXT ADVISORY-------------Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.$$Forecaster Blake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Just out of curiosity, what was the record set by Wilma for strengthening over a 24 hour period? Deepened 100 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Deepened 100 mb. Thanks. Not close to that, but the rate has still been impressive nonetheless. Has that west pac super Typhoon look to it. Sure does: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 I think ADT version 8.2.1 is a little out to lunch at the moment. SSD is currently running version 8.1.4 (same version that was run for Haiyan, by the way), and it's a little more conservative with a raw 7.4, which I'm fine with. The eye is still a little cool, but definitely warming up. It's not quite there yet, but this is going up to the top level of what we've seen in the eastern Pacific. The first storm that comes to mind when I see Patricia currently is Super Typhoon Nuri from last year, and Patricia will probably get about as intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Thanks. Not close to that, but the rate has still been impressive nonetheless. Wind speed went from 60kts to 150kts in 24 hours, a 24-hour increase of 90 kts. If the 10 PM advisory goes for a 140kts Patricia, that would be an 85 kts increase, very much in Wilma's ballpark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Wind speed went from 60kts to 150kts in 24 hours, a 24-hour increase of 90 kts. If the 10 PM advisory goes for a 140kts Patricia, that would be an 85 kts increase, very much in Wilma's ballpark. I meant more pressure-wise; we've dropped around 60 mb in the past 24 hours, versus Wilma's nearly 100 mb. Wind-wise, however, it is potentially very close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 I meant more pressure-wise; we've dropped around 60 mb in the past 24 hours, versus Wilma's nearly 100 mb. Wind-wise, however, it is potentially very close. Let's see if the eye contracts some more. The reason Wilmas winds were so high was due to the tiny eye If this thing makes landfall before erc look out Mexico Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 NHC went with 140 kt at 00Z in the operational trackfile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Raw T# up to 8.2... Really wish there was a recon out there right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 It doesn't get much more textbook than this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Wind speed went from 60kts to 150kts in 24 hours, a 24-hour increase of 90 kts. If the 10 PM advisory goes for a 140kts Patricia, that would be an 85 kts increase, very much in Wilma's ballpark. I believe a better comparitive storm would be hurricane Linda of the EPAC from 1997. It had an 81 mb 24 hour decrease in the central pressure and a 90 kt. increase in the MSW. Additionally, the 12 hour data was 54 mb and 55 knots, respectively. For Wilma, the 24 hour stats are 97 mb and 90 knots. 12 hour data was an astonishing 83 mb and 75 knots. In only a 6 hour period, hurricane Wilma's central pressure dropped a remarkable 54 mb!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 It doesn't get much more textbook than this: bd0-lalo.gif Agreed! Not surprising with the El Nino induced anamously warm water combined with a very favorable upper-level environment. It will be interesting to see if it will officially match or exceed hurricane Linda's super El Nino enhanced 1997 record intensity! It has a shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 00z hurricane models initializing at Category 5 intensity with further strengthening over the next 12 hours by more models than not: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 00z hurricane models initializing at Category 5 intensity with further strengthening over the next 12 hours by more models than not: ep202015_inten.png Baring an ERC, which could occur at any time, I suspect this will make a run at the aforementioned record EPAC intensity established by Linda in 1997. Edit: The 12 hour window, suggested by the models for continued intensification, corresponds well with the current wind shear analysis whereby Patricia will be moving into a less favorable upper-level environment beyond that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted October 23, 2015 Author Share Posted October 23, 2015 ...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE PATRICIA TURNING TOWARD SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... 10:00 PM CDT Thu Oct 22Location: 16.2°N 105.1°WMoving: NNW at 10 mphMin pressure: 924 mbMax sustained: 160 mph HURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP2020151000 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 Patricia continues to explosively intensify, with the eye becomingwarmer and better defined, along with a solid ring of very cold -90Ccloud tops in the eyewall. Subjective and objective Dvorakestimates support an initial wind speed of 140 kt, and an An AirForce Reserve reconnaissance unit aircraft is en route to check theintensity of the hurricane. Patricia is estimated to haveintensified 85 kt in the past 24 hours, from a tropical storm to acategory 5 hurricane during that time. This is a remarkable feat,with only Linda of 1997 intensifying at this rate in the satelliteera. The hurricane could strengthen a little more before increasingsouthwesterly shear causes Patricia to weaken some by Fridayafternoon, although it should remain an extremely dangeroushurricane through landfall. The latest forecast is close to theprevious NHC prediction, updated for the higher initial wind speed.After landfall, the hurricane should rapidly weaken over the highterrain and dissipate by 48 hours over the Sierra Madre mountains. The hurricane continues to turn more poleward and slow down, with aninitial motion estimate of 330/9. The track forecast reasoningremains unchanged with Patricia expected to turn northward duringthe next 12 hours as it moves around the periphery of a mid-levelhigh centered over the Gulf of Mexico. The hurricane is thenforecast to accelerate north-northeastward between the high and anamplifying trough over northwestern Mexico. The latest NHCforecast is close to the previous one, nudged a bit to the east tobetter reflect the latest consensus guidance. Model guidance continues to suggest that the mid-level remnants andmoisture from Patricia will be absorbed by a non-tropical area oflow pressure that forms over south Texas or the northwestern Gulf ofMexico this weekend. This moisture could contribute to a majorrainfall event already ongoing across portions of Texas. For moreinformation, please refer to products from your local NationalWeather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Confidence is high that Patricia will make landfall in thehurricane warning area along the coast of Mexico as an extremelydangerous major hurricane Friday afternoon or evening. Preparationsto protect life and property in the hurricane warning area should becompleted as tropical storm conditions will begin to affectthe warning area overnight or early Friday. 2. In addition to the coastal impacts, very heavy rainfall islikely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides in theMexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero beginninglate tonight and continuing into Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 16.2N 105.1W 140 KT 160 MPH12H 23/1200Z 17.4N 105.7W 145 KT 165 MPH24H 24/0000Z 19.7N 105.3W 125 KT 145 MPH...ON THE COAST36H 24/1200Z 22.5N 103.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND48H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$Forecaster Blake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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