hazwoper Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Just to alleviate any confusion: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_most_intense_tropical_cyclones There you have it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Not sure it got mentioned here, but the VDM mentions 204 kts FL winds...with a 10% reduction, that's 190kts at surface. F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 118° at 204kts (From the ESE at ~ 234.8mph) Rumors say that there's equipment malfunction with recon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 What is the most intense LF on record....global scale? By maximum one-minute sustained winds, Haiyan (165 kt) holds the record, if I recall correctly. The 1935 Labor Day hurricane (160 kt) is second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 What is the most intense LF on record....global scale? By maximum one-minute sustained winds, Haiyan (165 kt) holds the record, if I recall correctly. The 1935 Labor Day hurricane (160 kt) is second. These are probably correct. Dean on the Yucatan in 2007 is another candidate (155 kt I believe). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Not really fair to call Philippines 3rd world. Plenty of poverty and slums, but more of a developing country. Been there for two typhoons, and the populace was very informed and the local reporting/warning systems had a sophistication that you wouldn't see in a true 3rd world country. Patricia's 200 mph+ winds and surge would return 1st and 3rd world locations to a similar baseline, in the area of greatest impact It was a reckless generalization on my part, and for that i apologize. Main point is that i trust Josh surviving Patricia after he was able to withstand Haiyan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Josh is live on TWC right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Latest satellite frames suggest hanging tight in EZ was probably the right call. Still going just west of due N at 1845z. Would have to turn sharply to get to La Manzanilla now. Moving quickly. 1900z satellite imagery hints that the right wobble might be beginning. EZ might be perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNovice Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Not mobile friendly i don't think.. but this is interesting view of their flight going on in real time. I predict they will draw a heart in their path! http://airbornescience.nasa.gov/tracker/#view=map&mapid=roadmap&zoom=11&lat=17.1917&lng=-103.5708&callsign=NOAA43 Good Lord, just looking at their plot makes me DIZZY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Rumors say that there's equipment malfunction with recon. Just curious as to where you're hearing that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Latest satellite frames suggest hanging tight in EZ was probably the right call. Still going just west of due N at 1845z. Would have to turn sharply to get to La Manzanilla now. Moving quickly. We're debating about him heading back to San Mateo. Northerly component is still occurring and almost back on original track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Thank you. 190 kt surface? Maybe 220 at 5pm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Not sure it got mentioned here, but the VDM mentions 204 kts FL winds...with a 10% reduction, that's 190kts at surface. F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 118° at 204kts (From the ESE at ~ 234.8mph) Rumors say that there's equipment malfunction with recon. Damn...any word on what it is? I would think if it was critical they would just fly back though. Regardless, that just figures. Strongest storm we've ever seen, at least on this side of the world, and there is equipment malfunction. Of all the damn luck. Sure hope they get it fixed asap but it's not going to matter before too much longer because it's not far from making landfall now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Just curious as to where you're hearing that? Pacific Hurricanes group in FB...obviously nothing official, so take it with a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 1900z satellite imagery hints that the right wobble might be beginning. EZ might be perfect. Heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 EZ inhabitants will chase Josh with torches and pitchforks next time they see him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Not sure it got mentioned here, but the VDM mentions 204 kts FL winds...with a 10% reduction, that's 190kts at surface. F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 118° at 204kts (From the ESE at ~ 234.8mph) Rumors say that there's equipment malfunction with recon. These are probably correct. Dean on the Yucatan in 2007 is another candidate (155 kt I believe). Dean and Felix both made landfall at 150 kt, as did Janet 1955. Typhoon Zeb (1998) hit the Philippines at 155 kt, if I recall correctly. And that 204-kt flight-level wind likely means that this storm will be upgraded in post-seasonal analysis to a peak of 180-185 kt (90% reduction yields ~184 kt 10-m winds). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Kyle Griffin @kgriffin0 7m7 minutes ago Hearing of a 660 m drop in 30 sec by the @NOAA_HurrHunter in center of #Patricia. Must take some time to clean up the cabin after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 We're debating about him heading back to San Mateo. Northerly component is still occurring and almost back on original track. Ya, I think the 1915z satellite frame will help. Maybe wait for that before making a decision! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Hurricane Patricia is the strongest tropical cyclone measured 1-min sustained winds by aircraft reconnaissance in the recorded meteorological history. Pacific typhoon wind speed is generally satellite measured. I would venture to conclude several Pacific typhoons would have as fast or faster 1-min sustained winds using the same metric. I wouldn't venture to conclude anything from unsubstantiated speculation. Also, the Dvorak estimates for this system were comparable to, or higher than any other numbers I am familiar with. Does anyone recall what the highest observed Dvorak numbers are? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Kyle Griffin @kgriffin0 7m7 minutes ago Hearing of a 660 m drop in 30 sec by the @NOAA_HurrHunter in center of #Patricia. Must take some time to clean up the cabin after that. That would explain it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Dean and Felix both made landfall at 150 kt, as did Janet 1955. Typhoon Zeb (1998) hit the Philippines at 155 kt, if I recall correctly. And that 204-kt flight-level wind likely means that this storm will be upgraded in post-seasonal analysis to a peak of 180-185 kt (90% reduction yields ~184 kt 10-m winds). Right, 184kts...spaced out, sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 I just caught back up and was thinking why no one is praying for the NOAA hurricane hunter and bam... saw that tweet. Can't believe they can even fly through those conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Well I'm sure the cabin smells of excrement, but hopefully they can get situated in time to punch the core again. That'll be the last before landfall. Sent from my LG G4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 I wouldn't venture to conclude anything from unsubstantiated speculation. Also, the Dvorak estimates for this system were comparable to, or higher than any other numbers I am familiar with. Does anyone recall what the highest observed Dvorak numbers are? 8.3 raw, 8.2 final via ADT 8.2.1 http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/20E-list.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Ya, I think the 1915z satellite frame will help. Maybe wait for that before making a decision! New frame is in... tough to say. Looks like it's turned a bit right, but I don't think it's far enough yet to be making a beeline for EZ. As usual, you guys are on top of things discussing the possibility of moving back further north. EDIT: On the other hand, the GOES West imagery makes it look like EZ is still perfect. Hooray for parallax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 IF anybody uses Periscope there is someone periscoping out of Mazanilla right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 By maximum one-minute sustained winds, Haiyan (165 kt) holds the record, if I recall correctly. The 1935 Labor Day hurricane (160 kt) is second. Pressure mb record? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 The average decent rate for a commercial jet is 457.2 meters per 30 second interval. Nothing unusual there. That is a planned descent. When you are flying along and then forced down 660 meters..it's a bit hairy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 8.3 raw, 8.2 final via ADT 8.2.1 http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/20E-list.txt How does this compare to historic TCs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 I know the thread is moving fast but please keep the discussions about the storm (and related tangents obviously). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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