Bryan Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Found this youtube video with a couple live feeds in it...https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RP5Y4lISF0s&feature=player_embedded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 I dont know if any other mets saw but the temp @ ~700mb was an astounding 32.2C or 90F!! That is unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Hopefully whatever was bothering the recon mission got sorted out... They at least stopped flying in circles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 I would imagine this might be similar to Charley on crack. Approaching the coast at a similar angle that Charley approached Florida, and a small, but very intense inner core. I remember them issuing tornado warnings where Charley made landfall, because it was literally like a massive tornado buzz sawing the entire area. I was actually making my first visit to Florida the week Hurricane Charley came ashore, my grandparents have a house on "Pine Island" right around punta gorda port Charlotte area, Which took a direct hit I remember the mandatory evacuations they had in place, and we drove 6 hours north in traffic jammed interstates to escape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Just had BBC on and it seems some resorts have stopped evacuating, and telling people to shelter in place... WOW...utter stupidity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 000 URPN12 KWBC 231839 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE EP202015 A. 23/17:33:00Z B. 18 deg 10 min N 105 deg 16 min W C. 700 mb 1924 m D. 169 kt E. 305 deg / 5 nm F. 118 deg 204 kt G. 133 deg 5 nm H. 883 mb I. 12 C / 3063 m J. 28 C / 2901 m K. 11 C / NA L. CLOSED WALL M. C7 N. 12345 / 7 O. 1 / 1 nm P. NOAA3 0420E PATRICIA OB 04 MAX FL WIND 160 KT 318 / 5 NM 17:31:55Z MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 92 KT 125 / 8 NM 17:40:49Z CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 180 / 45 KTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Yep. He is on his way to EZ. Told him he may have to head further N to Careyes or Chamela. Can't lie. Not fully comfortable but trust his judgement. Running out of time and has to find somewhere to hunker down. For his sake I hope you guys are right. I still suspect the center to pass very close to La Manzanilla, myself. I would guess this left wobble will make way for one more right wobble before landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Media sensationalization ftw: http://www.cnn.com/2015/10/23/americas/hurricane-patricia/ "Hurricane Patricia-- The Strongest Hurricane ever recorded--" Not quite, CNN, not quite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 For his sake I hope you guys are right. I still suspect the center to pass very close to La Manzanilla, myself. I would guess this left wobble will make way for one more right wobble before landfall. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 000URPN12 KWBC 231839VORTEX DATA MESSAGE EP202015A. 23/17:33:00ZB. 18 deg 10 min N 105 deg 16 min WC. 700 mb 1924 mD. 169 ktE. 305 deg / 5 nmF. 118 deg 204 ktG. 133 deg 5 nmH. 883 mbI. 12 C / 3063 mJ. 28 C / 2901 mK. 11 C / NAL. CLOSED WALLM. C7N. 12345 / 7O. 1 / 1 nmP. NOAA3 0420E PATRICIA OB 04MAX FL WIND 160 KT 318 / 5 NM 17:31:55ZMAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 92 KT 125 / 8 NM 17:40:49ZCNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 180 / 45 KTS 883mb with 45kts, suggests 879mb is pretty much the correct call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Media sensationalization ftw: http://www.cnn.com/2015/10/23/americas/hurricane-patricia/ "Hurricane Patricia-- The Strongest Hurricane ever recorded--" Not quite, CNN, not quite Pretty close.....not much of an embellishment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 For his sake I hope you guys are right. I still suspect the center to pass very close to La Manzanilla, myself. I would guess this left wobble will make way for one more right wobble before landfall. You might be right, if the trochoidal idea is right, then it should start moving more NNW soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Media sensationalization ftw: http://www.cnn.com/2015/10/23/americas/hurricane-patricia/ "Hurricane Patricia-- The Strongest Hurricane ever recorded--" Not quite, CNN, not quite I'm not 100% sure on this, but I think 175kts is the highest advisory intensity for any tropical cyclone ever, so in that sense it would be the "strongest". Additionally, the 879mb would make it the deepest hurricane (not the deepest tropical cyclone). So it's not really sensationalization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Pretty close.....not much of an embellishment. I guess not, but it's still not true, which bugs me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 I'm not 100% sure on this, but I think 175kts is the highest advisory intensity for any tropical cyclone ever, so in that sense it would be the "strongest". Additionally, the 879mb would make it the deepest hurricane (not the deepest tropical cyclone). So it's not really sensationalization. Highest wind speed and lowest pressure for any storm in the NHC forecasting area, not in the world (which is what CNN's advertising). Typhoon Tip got down to 870 mb and 215 mph sustained. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 For his sake I hope you guys are right. I still suspect the center to pass very close to La Manzanilla, myself. I would guess this left wobble will make way for one more right wobble before landfall. I think you may be right that this will wobble back, but the way it bounced off of 105W I don't know that it can get as far east as La Manzanilla. Josh's play might be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Highest wind speed and lowest pressure for any storm in the NHC forecasting area, not in the world (which is what CNN's advertising). Typhoon Tip got down to 870 mb and 215 mph sustained. Did Tip really have those winds? I thought Tip had 190 mph winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Highest wind speed and lowest pressure for any storm in the NHC forecasting area, not in the world (which is what CNN's advertising). Typhoon Tip got down to 870 mb and 215 mph sustained. Tip was a typhoon. They said hurricane. And I don't know the advisory intensities for Tip, but as far as I can see the highest 1m sustained winds for Tip were 165kts (190mph). It was a huge storm, so even though the pressure was lower, the gradient may not have been as strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 What a beast. I've looked at that satellite all day. Just incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Highest wind speed and lowest pressure for any storm in the NHC forecasting area, not in the world (which is what CNN's advertising). Typhoon Tip got down to 870 mb and 215 mph sustained. I've only seen Tip having 190mph one-min sustained. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 I don't know who this Josh is but I assume he knows his stuff regarding the tropics. With that said tho, I hope he gets out of the direct path and loses the tunnel vision ASAP. This isn't some Cat 1-2 storm...,this is the strongest hurricane ever recorded. Serious concerns for this persons well-being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Media sensationalization ftw: http://www.cnn.com/2015/10/23/americas/hurricane-patricia/ "Hurricane Patricia-- The Strongest Hurricane ever recorded--" Not quite, CNN, not quite In western hemisphere it is the storngest tropical cuyclone ever recorded.....news outlets like to leave out a few details here and there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 I don't know who this Josh is but I assume he knows his stuff regarding the tropics. With that said tho, I hope he gets out of the direct path and loses the tunnel vision ASAP. This isn't some Cat 1-2 storm...,this is the strongest hurricane ever recorded. Serious concerns for this persons well-being. HurricaneJosh dude. He knows what he's doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Did Tip really have those winds? I thought Tip had 190 mph winds. It did. Tip was much more massive, thus it did not produce the same wind intensity at a similar pressure to Patricia. Tip's energy was much more expansive and dispersed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 i sure hope to see them turn back toward the center soon..running out of time before it reaches the coast. Makes me worried that they are flying northeast right now and not toward the center as of the last update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Not to mention this thing has had sustained 200 MPH winds for 12 hours. It is really just ridiculous at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Tip was like 1300mi wide at one point, which is ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 In western hemisphere.....news outlets like to leave out a few details here and there Hurricanes don't exist in the Eastern Hemisphere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 I know the sustained winds are 200 mph... But think about the gusts to 245 mph for a second. That's 100 mph stronger than 145 mph, which is firmly in the category 4 range. I can't even fathom seeing such gusts in a hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 I suggested to Josh to hang tight in EZ. Weather hasn't fully gone downhill yet and can adjust N or S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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