Superstorm93 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 whats the exploration on a 60knt SFMR? Usually a 1mb drop per 10 knots... So theoretically a 872 reading...we'll what the VDM has Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 It's amazing to look at that webcam at the beach at La Manzanilla and see how calm the ocean is. Hope the cam can stay up as long as possible. Got a link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 http://www.lamanzanilla.info/web_cam.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 That 878 was with 60 knot surface winds!! I'm in awe Sent from my SM-G925V So low 870s maybe? I wonder if its possible it either now or sometime between recon flights it got down below 870. Just unreal.. At this point you run out of words to describe this monster. One would think it would decrease ever so slightly right before landfall but I've been wondering given the trajectory, shape of the coastline, and immediate inland topography if there could be some increase in surface winds on the east side due to contraction of the wind field between the center and the coast..Kind of a funneling effect considering the angle of approach and immediate inland topography. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Got a link? Here you go http://www.lamanzanilla.info/web_cam.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 So low 870s maybe? I wonder if its possible it either now or sometime between recon flights it got down below 870. Just unreal.. At this point you run out of words to describe this monster. One would think it would decrease ever so slightly right before landfall but I've been wondering given the trajectory, shape of the coastline, and immediate inland topography if there could be some increase in surface winds due to contraction of the wind field between the center and the coast..sort of a funneling effect since it's sort of a unique angle of approach. Would think we are at or near the maximum potential intensity for a tropical cyclone in this part of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 The advisory has 879mb/175kt winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 So low 870s maybe? I wonder if its possible it either now or sometime between recon flights it got down below 870. Just unreal.. At this point you run out of words to describe this monster. One would think it would decrease ever so slightly right before landfall but I've been wondering given the trajectory, shape of the coastline, and immediate inland topography if there could be some increase in surface winds due to contraction of the wind field between the center and the coast..sort of a funneling effect since it's sort of a unique angle of approach. That only applies to dropsondes, not estimated pressure from the aircraft. The sonde had 883 with 43 kts surface winds...that's around 878-879mb Edit: 879mb that is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Usually a 1mb drop per 10 knots... So theoretically a 872 reading...we'll what the VDM has Ok, Thought so. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 1:00 PM CDT Fri Oct 23Location: 18.2°N 105.3°WMoving: N at 12 mphMin pressure: 879 mbMax sustained: 200 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 I think this is out of everyone's league and everyone, including Josh should get the hell out. When a hurricane has SUSTAINED winds of what borders an EF 5 tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 That only applies to dropsondes, not estimated pressure from the aircraft. The sonde had 883 with 43 kts surface winds...that's around 878-879mb Edit: 879mb that is Exactly, a lot of people are missing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 https://twitter.com/splillo/status/657618453012975616 That's simply unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 I dont know if any other mets saw but the temp @ ~700mb was an astounding 32.2C or 90F!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNovice Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Josh is just now going through Emiliano Zapata as he heads further down the coast. Roads are closing at 2 so trying to recon as many places if he needs to adjust. Man, I hope he is extra careful with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Would think we are at or near the maximum potential intensity for a tropical cyclone in this part of the world. I certainly would think so too. I actually thought it would probably start weakening a bit by now given but i'm just wondering if it's possible a small increase in winds on it's eastern side could be possible thanks to the sort of unique set of factors. Would be a rather small area and likely wouldn't ever be measured but just a thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stockmanjr Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Just had BBC on and it seems some resorts have stopped evacuating, and telling people to shelter in place... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Umm, that's insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Damn. 878 mb. That will result in an incredible storm surge.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Here you go http://www.lamanzanilla.info/web_cam.html wow-you'd never know what's coming just looking at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 878, I think that qualifies as over 9000 on the Vegeta scouter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Thats just insane I dont know if any other mets saw but the temp @ ~700mb was an astounding 32.2C or 90F!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 That only applies to dropsondes, not estimated pressure from the aircraft. The sonde had 883 with 43 kts surface winds...that's around 878-879mb Edit: 879mb that is ah i missed that... thought that was from a dropsonde. thanks for the correction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 32C at 850mb is crazy enough. At 700-710mb? That's gotta be some kind of record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Anyone know what the recon plane is doing? Looks like it turned around for some reason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 From the ISS Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Just had BBC on and it seems some resorts have stopped evacuating, and telling people to shelter in place... What?!? Beachfront resorts? That is suicide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 32C at 850mb is crazy enough. At 700-710mb? That's gotta be some kind of record.850 almost is the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Anyone know what the recon plane is doing? Looks like it turned around for some reason going to make a few passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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