TalcottWx Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 On board radar updated every 10 min http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi?basin=al&year=2015&storm=Patricia&mission=04&agency=NOAA&product=radar thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 That is not exaggerating. I really don't think it's possible to overstate the intensity of this system. It's not like you could over-prepare for a 175-kt storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 I think that this is likely to deviate to the right of the forecast track up until landfall. Satellite data over the past few hours indicate that the trend is not a jog, but rather a definite turn to the north-northeast and eventually northeast. Layer mean analysis at 500-850 mb indicates southwest to northeast flow as the mid-level jet becomes more zonal, so Patricia is likely beginning a sharp turn to the northeast, much as Charley did in 2004, that would bring the center to the coast within 20-30 mi of Manzanillo. I just told my brother in law with a house in Puerto Vallarta that he should make out relatively well for that precise region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 I really don't think it's possible to overstate the intensity of this system. It's not like you could over-prepare for a 175-kt storm. Yea, sorry, but I could not stress enough to my sister and bro in law the severity of the situation at hand. My apologies mapgirl... Hopefully it keeps jogging east as I feel it may. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Also: Puerto Vallarta live stream back olive on youtube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tUgyOFEI8-Q Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 The east jog has not let up, on a steady course a few degrees left of northeast the last few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Early call: landfall around 20Z ~20 mi W of Manzanillo at 155 kt with major wind/surge destruction to the east of the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 The east jog has not let up, on a steady course a few degrees left of northeast the last few hours.Very seldomly do you see a recurving TC head to the left of conscensus.....especially intense ones.We in NE are well versed in that aspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Early call: landfall around 20Z ~20 mi W of Manzanillo at 155 kt with major wind/surge destruction to the east of the center. this might be a good webcam to watch http://www.lamanzanilla.info/web_cam.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 With the current trends Manzanillo would appear to be in a very bad spot.They seem likely to miss the eyewall but they will still have a rough time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Noaa P3 enroute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Josh is going to start heading further S to check out other options. We were hoping that landfall was going to be later and allow plenty of recon data to fine tune but the latest trends warrants possibly relocating. Agreed. In fact, the town of San Patricio may be near the point of landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Just saw this first words out of my mouth holys***!! This storm is incredible looking forward to what recon finds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyg Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 ISS is going to be flying over the storm in a bit. Here's the livestream: http://www.ustream.tv/channel/iss-hdev-payload Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Early call: landfall around 20Z ~20 mi W of Manzanillo at 155 kt with major wind/surge destruction to the east of the center. I'm thinking Melaque. Manzanillo should get smacked pretty good, but not with the brunt unless it shifts further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Looks like IR temps are starting to back off Haiyan-level ridiculousness. Obviously not going to weaken much before LF, but.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Agreed. In fact, the town of San Patricio may be near the point of landfall. looks like it might even be manzanillo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 this might be a good webcam to watch http://www.lamanzanilla.info/web_cam.html Interested that the surf isn't bigger yet. Could it be related to the small radius of the wind field? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 At 175kts, you have to imagine it has peaked. The slight warming around the eye versus the mindboggling presentation earlier may be more due to the diurnal minimum than internal fluctuations right now. Even though there is currently no sign of an impending ERC, you really want that to begin asap for some kind of weakening to occur. I can't imagine this making landfall at its current intensity, but you really do want to hope it can weaken soon. Hard to fathom that kind of sustained wind directly into harbors and inlets that will be impacted by the eastern and southeastern eyewall. It's still a very compact windfield, so where as some areas will have complete devastation, others merely 10-15 miles away from the eyewall may not get winds higher than cat 1 force. Josh better be extra careful with this one. To say flying debris will be a problem would be an understatement. Sent from my LG G4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 looks like it might even be manzanillo I didn't want to be the first to say it, extrapolating the current motion would put it very close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Some reduction in intensity before landfall even without an ERC would be expected. Cannot expect a storm to maintain such an exteme intensity for very long.Regardless, the short time before landfall virtually guarantees a devastating hit to where it comes ashore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Yep, the 3 hour motion is a bee line towards Manzanillo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 I think it may now be trending a bit less northeasterly and the landfall may be close to Melaque which would be 19.2 N 104.7 W from current position of about 18.0 N 105.1 W intermediate position would therefore be 18.6 N 104.9 W for tracking purposes. There are probably going to be more wobbles, expect that there could be one northward jog before landfall to reduce chances of going as far east as Manzanillo (could be La Manzanilla instead, that's a bit west of Melaque). If this is correct Josh (if at San Mateo) and Punta Perula will be spared cat-5 conditions and might only see cat-2 northeast winds at peak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 At 175kts, you have to imagine it has peaked. The slight warming around the eye versus the mindboggling presentation earlier may be more due to the diurnal minimum than internal fluctuations right now. Even though there is currently no sign of an impending ERC, you really want that to happen asap for some kind of weakening to occur. I can't imagine this making landfall at its current intensity, but you really do want to hope it can weaken soon. Hard to fathom that kind of sustained wind directly into harbors and inlets that will be impacted by the eastern and southeastern eyewall. It's still a very compact windfield, so where as some areas will have complete devastation, others merely 10-15 miles away from the eyewall may not get winds higher than cat 1 force. Josh better be extra careful with this one. To say flying debris will be a problem would be an understatement. Sent from my LG G4. That's what I was thinking, as well. Having an ERC may even be worse than not having one, because it would allow the wind field to expand more. While the overall winds would be weaker, it would still be an incredibly strong storm at landfall even if an ERC occurred. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Recon going for the 1st pass in an hour or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Tacloban City is still recovering from Haiyan. I hope this does not come close to that devastation! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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