Lookout Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 TCDEP5 HURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 1000 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 There has been little change in the satellite appearance of Patricia since the earlier Hurricane Hunter aircraft left the hurricane. Based on this, the initial intensity remains 175 kt. Some fluctuations in strength are possible before landfall, but it is expected that Patricia will make landfall as a Category 5 hurricane in southwestern Mexico in less than 12 hours. After landfall, a combination of the mountainous terrain of Mexico and increasing shear should cause the cyclone to rapidly weaken, with the system likely to dissipate completely after 36 hours. The hurricane has turned northward since the previous advisory and the initial motion is now 005/9. Patricia is about to recurve into the westerlies between a mid-level anticyclone to its east and a deep-layer trough over northwestern Mexico and the southwestern U. S. These features should steer the cyclone generally north-northeastward across western and northern Mexico until dissipation occurs. The new forecast track is an update of the previous track. The global models continue to depict the development of a cyclone near the Texas coast over the weekend. This system should be non-tropical in nature. However, this cyclone is expected to draw significant amounts of moisture from Patricia's remnants, and could result in locally heavy rainfall over portions of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico coastal area within the next few days. Refer to statements from local National Weather Service forecast offices for details. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Confidence is high that Patricia will make landfall in the hurricane warning area along the coast of Mexico as an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane this afternoon or evening. Preparations to protect life and property in the hurricane warning area should have been completed, or rushed to completion, as tropical storm conditions are spreading across the area. Residents in low-lying areas near the coast in the hurricane warning area should evacuate immediately, since the storm surge could be catastrophic near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. 2. In addition to the coastal impacts, very heavy rainfall is likely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides in the Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero continuing into Saturday. 3. At this time, the Category 5 winds are occurring over a very small area near the center - about 15 miles across. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Patricia before landfall to see what changes in intensity and structure have occurred. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 17.6N 105.5W 175 KT 200 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 19.8N 105.1W 130 KT 150 MPH...INLAND 24H 24/1200Z 22.9N 103.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 36H 25/0000Z 25.7N 101.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 where exactly is that? I'm having a hard time finding that...google maps keeps taking me to the town in central mexico and i don't think he'd go there lol Try La Huerta. It's just S of La Fortuna on 200. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 How long can it keep it together ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 3. REMARKS: BOTH THE NOAA P-3 AND NASA WB-57 ARE FLYING MISSIONS ON HURRICANE PATRICIA TODAY AS DETAILED ON TCPOD 15-149.TCPOD NUMBER.....15-1491. HURRICANE PATRICIAFLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 43 A. 23/1800Z B. NOAA3 0420E PATRICIA C. 23/1430Z D. 18.0N 105.5W E. 23/1730Z TO 22/2030Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 They are looking for the most fortified structure available which might not be a hotel. well yes but what if they got there and couldn't find a suitable host Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 given how we've had Hayian and now Patricia going "off the charts", has there been any talk of revising the charts to reflect these possibilities becoming real now? It's also worth noting thaf Patricia has been running above what at least the SHIPS had as its maximum potential intensity, which has been running 170-171kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 No eyewall replacement. This is likely going in as is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Try La Huerta. It's just S of La Fortuna on 200. ah there it is..thanks so much. man i hope they find something better than what i'm seeing on street view. 3. REMARKS: BOTH THE NOAA P-3 AND NASA WB-57 ARE FLYING MISSIONS ON HURRICANE PATRICIA TODAY AS DETAILED ON TCPOD 15-149. TCPOD NUMBER.....15-149 1. HURRICANE PATRICIA FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 43 A. 23/1800Z B. NOAA3 0420E PATRICIA C. 23/1430Z D. 18.0N 105.5W E. 23/1730Z TO 22/2030Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT. Hopefully we'll get some radar data this time. No eyewall replacement. This is likely going in as is Just think..it could weaken by 35 knots and still be a cat 5...it really is breath taking to consider just how strong it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 :drool: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 ah there it is..thanks so much. man i hope they find something better than what i'm seeing on street view. Hopefully we'll get some radar data this time. Just think..it could weaken by 35 knots and still be a cat 5...it really is breath taking to consider just how strong it is. During the record breaking center pass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 This is running right of the cone in a very Charley-esque way. If I'm in Manzanillo, I'm quite nervous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Considering the continued warming and contraction of the small eye, the incoming mission may well find a pressure in the upper 870s, likely in the range of 877-879 mb. This may well be as strong as it was at the time of last night's historic final pass, though peak intensity likely occurred some hours earlier. My guess is that the winds in post-analysis will be bumped up to 180 kt, based on SFMR data and the possible findings of this mission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 No ERC.....jesus. Cat 6. Looks a hair less impressive on latest IR to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Has anyone else been saying "Holy Sh*t" out loud to themselves all morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Cloud tops appear to have warmed a tad in last couple of frames, I agree this likely peaked in intensity a couple of ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Cloud tops appear to have warmed a tad in last couple of frames, I agree this likely peaked in intensity a couple of ago. Yes, just noted that. Def. peaked.....I mean, no surprise ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Has anyone else been saying "Holy Sh*t" out loud to themselves all morning? No, but I deff woke my girlfriend up like 3 times between 6 and 7am with overly excited and unsolicited updates :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 This is running right of the cone in a very Charley-esque way. If I'm in Manzanillo, I'm quite nervous. It might just be a wobble, but if this goes further right/east than expected, it could be really bad for people living in places like Manzanillo. I would seriously hope most people have evacuated there, because that sort of unexpected turn into more populated areas could be devastating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 No, but I deff woke my girlfriend up like 3 times between 6 and 7am with overly excited and unsolicited updates :-) Wow you sound like a hot date. Even if this thing weakens 50 mph, we're talking about enormous damage. How high can the surge get in that region of Mexico? Could the small size help reduce a massive surge? Think Charley 2004. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 When I saw the update I was blown away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 No ERC.....jesus. Cat 6. Looks a hair less impressive on latest IR to me. Ray -- I know you are kidding when you say Cat 6, because no such category exists, but there are over 100 guests viewing this thread right now... perhaps best not to get too exaggerated for fear of giving non-weather obsessed people like ourselves the wrong information Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Mudslide issues too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Recon is flying over Mexico and on the way!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 I think that this is likely to deviate to the right of the forecast track up until landfall. Satellite data over the past few hours indicate that the trend is not a jog, but rather a definite turn to the north-northeast and eventually northeast. Layer mean analysis at 500-850 mb indicates southwest to northeast flow as the mid-level jet becomes more zonal, so Patricia is likely beginning a sharp turn to the northeast, much as Charley did in 2004, that would bring the center to the coast within 20-30 mi of Manzanillo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Ray -- I know you are kidding when you say Cat 6, because no such category exists, but there are over 100 guests viewing this thread right now... perhaps best not to get too exaggerated for fear of giving non-weather obsessed people like ourselves the wrong information CAT 5 +? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Josh is going to start heading further S to check out other options. We were hoping that landfall was going to be later and allow plenty of recon data to fine tune but the latest trends warrants possibly relocating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 During the record breaking center pass awesome. Thanks for sharing. Here is a link to the radar images from the current mission. . http://hurricanecity.com/recon/recon.cgi?basin=al&year=2015&storm=Patricia&mission=04&agency=NOAA&product=radar&latest=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Ray -- I know you are kidding when you say Cat 6, because no such category exists, but there are over 100 guests viewing this thread right now... perhaps best not to get too exaggerated for fear of giving non-weather obsessed people like ourselves the wrong information That is not exaggerating. I any event, I think the greater risk is having some in remote areas not entirely grasping the magnitude of the threat at hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 On board radar updated every 10 min http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi?basin=al&year=2015&storm=Patricia&mission=04&agency=NOAA&product=radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorMu Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 patricia looks stronger than haiyan..https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk/photos/p.933279700052622/933279700052622/?type=3&theater Vicious gravity waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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