jbcmh81 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 The record for pressure with Tip was 870 right? I mean I guess that's still technically in play here. I bet it came very close sometime last night just after recon left. For sure it reached into the 870s. Sustained may have peaked between 205-215mph, but we'll never know for sure. Recon will likely get in this thing too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 The thing is, will it matter? I looked at the local topography and the problem is elevation increases pretty quick...even though they will be further inland..it means they get into the higher winds right above the surface so it's a wash probably..especially considering how fast this thing is moving. Pretty solid east jog on satellite though so maybe it goes south of where they are?I was looking at pictures of Perula: I was mostly concerned about storm surge. Obviously the high winds are biggest concern but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 The thing is, will it matter? I looked at the local topography and the problem is elevation increases pretty quick...even though they will be further inland..it means they get into the higher winds right above the surface so it's a wash probably..especially considering how fast this thing is moving. Pretty solid east jog on satellite though so maybe it goes south of where they are? Well Perula just wasn't an option anymore, even after checking around. They will recon N and S to find anything viable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Perula is a no go. They are checking another town further inland. Wise choice! There's a huge difference between being brave and suicidal. At its prospective landfalling intensity, he can still document extreme conditions at an inland location, with mitigated risk to his life, which is always priority number one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Well Perula just wasn't an option anymore, even after checking around. They will recon N and S to find anything viable.Some nasty convection ahead of the center. I hope if they get on the road they get on it quick . Mudslides have to be a huge concern in interior. Another consideration. So many hazards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Here are some live cams from PV: http://www.cuatesycuetes.com/en/index.php/webcam http://www.webcamsdemexico.com/videos.php?v=tUgyOFEI8-Q&streams=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 iCyclone thread -> http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47098-icyclone-patricia/#entry3730669 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wendy Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Looks like they haven't evacuated the beachside resorts/hotels in Puerto Vallarta. Woman posted the note given to guests at the Barcelo Puerto Vallarta, a 5-star resort on the south side of the bay. https://twitter.com/TelemundoNews/status/657552310051037184 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Here is a live You Tube feed that says it is in Colima. I don't know if that mean the State of Colima or the Town. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dWT3kRX-eiQ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 I bet it came very close sometime last night just after recon left. For sure it reached into the 870s. Sustained may have peaked between 205-215mph, but we'll never know for sure. Recon will likely get in this thing too late. It's killing me that there is no recon in there right now. Still several hours to go before the next one and i think there is a good chance it weakens a little bit by then just because of it's proximity to land. We may never know how strong it really got. I was looking at pictures of Perula: I was mostly concerned about storm surge. Obviously the high winds are biggest concern but... Yeah storm surge would be quite severe indeed given the shape of that bay. Well Perula just wasn't an option anymore, even after checking around. They will recon N and S to find anything viable. I have a hard time thinking anywhere is a really viable option...but Was that because of lack of sturdy buildings, just couldn't find a spot to stay, or where they worried about storm surge? I'm wondering what type of structures are they seeing down there in general though..haven't heard much on how well things are build down there. Some dude on twc a moment ago said locals weren't even taken it that seriously in la manzanilla (i think that's where he said he was at). That's to the south of the projected landfall but this eastern jog has to be a concern. If that sentiment though is widespread everywhere though..that is depressing and quite sad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Just wobbles or has it made a pretty significant turn to the east? If so, that would be right into the state of Colima, meaning Manzanillo and several other large towns would be right in the path, rather than the relatively unpopulated coastline to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apm Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Next You may have already seen it, but here is arguably the most intense TC winds captured on film. Incredible, thanks for posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Just wobbles or has it made a pretty significant turn to the east? If so, that would be right into the state of Colima, meaning Manzanillo and several other large towns would be right in the path, rather than the relatively unpopulated coastline to the north. Trochoidal wobbles and should smooth out. Really need recon.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Trochoidal wobbles and should smooth out. Really need recon.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 You may have already seen it, but here is arguably the most intense TC winds captured on film. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 HWRF nailing the sat presentation Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Looks like the eye may have widened a bit...either that or cloud debris drifting. ERC near? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Off the charts...literally Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 This is still the winner for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 I have a hard time thinking anywhere is a really viable option...but Was that because of lack of sturdy buildings, just couldn't find a spot to stay, or where they worried about storm surge? I'm wondering what type of structures are they seeing down there in general though..haven't heard much on how well things are build down there. Some dude on twc a moment ago said locals weren't even taken it that seriously in la manzanilla (i think that's where he said he was at). That's to the south of the projected landfall but this eastern jog has to be a concern. If that sentiment though is widespread everywhere though..that is depressing and quite sad Just no real options considering the intensity of the storm. Haven't talked enough with Josh to see if some of the small towns were akin too Mahuhal which till late last night was sorta what I was thinking would be comparable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Josh has scouted San Mateo and for now feels like it's an option. Little elevated for my liking but a far better alternative than Perula. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 This is still the winner for me. This is another contender by iCyclone...really showing the power of even a storm much weaker (110 kt) than Patricia. (Personally, I suspect that Odile may have been 115 kt--low-end Category 4--at landfall.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Josh has scouted San Mateo and for now feels like it's an option. Little elevated for my liking but a far better alternative than Perula.Looked at San Mateo but didn't see any hotels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Off the charts...literally Sent from my SM-G925V given how we've had Hayian and now Patricia going "off the charts", has there been any talk of revising the charts to reflect these possibilities becoming real now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 What's the record for fastest weakening of a hurricane? Patricia is forecasted to drop 140 mph in 12 hours and 185 mph in 24 h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Eye has continued to warm to 3.3c over the last five frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 center eye temp wow UW - CIMSSADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUEADT-Version 8.2.1Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm----- Current Analysis -----Date : 23 OCT 2015 Time : 134500 UTCLat : 17:21:02 N Lon : 105:35:26 WCI# /Pressure/ Vmax8.2 / 884.5mb/176.0ktFinal T# Adj T# Raw T#8.2 8.1 8.1Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 11 kmCenter Temp : -0.3C Cloud Region Temp : -80.5C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Looked at San Mateo but didn't see any hotels They are looking for the most fortified structure available which might not be a hotel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 The Science Behind Patricia: Micheal Ventrice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Josh has scouted San Mateo and for now feels like it's an option. Little elevated for my liking but a far better alternative than Perula. where exactly is that? I'm having a hard time finding that...google maps keeps taking me to the town in central mexico and i don't think he'd go there lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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