wxtrackercody Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 Decided to start this thread since Patricia appears to be a significant threat to the coastline of Mexico. The cyclone has become markedly better organized since this morning, with deep convection increasing the center, expanding upper-level outflow, and a partial eyewall on microwave imagery. The official NHC forecast has a Category 2 hurricane landfall near Manzanillo on Friday afternoon. I think it's safe to say at this point that this is a conservative prediction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxtrackercody Posted October 22, 2015 Author Share Posted October 22, 2015 HURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP2020151000 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 Patricia continues to strengthen, with an eye evident in recentmicrowave images and intermittently seen in infrared imagery.The initial intensity is set to 85 kt, a bit above the latestUW-CIMSS ADT estimate of T4.7/82 kt, and this could be a littleconservative if the eye becomes more distinct in infrared imagery.Even so, Patricia has intensified 50 kt in the last 24 hours. A NOAAHurricane Hunter aircraft will investigate Patricia later today andprovide valuable information on the intensity and structure of thehurricane. The environment is expected to be conducive for continued rapidstrengthening in the next 24 hours, with the cyclone in an area ofvery low shear and SSTs above 30C. In fact, the SHIPS RI indexshows a 95 percent chance of a 40-kt increase in the next 24 hours.The official forecast is close to the upper end of the guidance nearthe LGEM, and shows Patricia reaching major hurricane status by thisevening and continuing to intensify through Friday morning. Littlechange in intensity is forecast on Friday prior to landfall, assouthwesterly shear begins to increase. After landfall, Patriciashould rapidly weaken, and the low-level circulation shoulddissipate over the high terrain of Mexico before 72 hours. The hurricane continues to move quickly west-northwestward, with aninitial motion estimate of 295/15. The track forecast philosophy hasnot changed, with Patricia expected to turn northwestward and thennorthward during the next 24 hours as it moves around the peripheryof a mid-level high centered over the Gulf of Mexico. Then, thehurricane should turn north-northeastward between the high and anamplifying trough over northwestern Mexico. The new NHC track hasagain been shifted a little to the left to account for the initialmotion and is near the latest GFS/ECMWF consensus on the westernside of the guidance envelope. Based on the latest forecast, the government of Mexico has issued ahurricane watch and a tropical storm warning from north of CaboCorrientes to San Blas, which includes the Puerto Vallarta area. Note that model guidance suggests that the mid-level remnants andmoisture from Patricia will be absorbed by a non-tropical area oflow pressure that forms over south Texas or the northwestern Gulf ofMexico this weekend. This moisture could contribute to a majorrainfall event already ongoing across portions of Texas. For moreinformation, please refer to products from your local NationalWeather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Confidence is increasing that Patricia will make landfall in thehurricane warning area as an extremely dangerous major hurricaneFriday afternoon or evening. Preparations to protect life andproperty in the hurricane warning area should be completed today, astropical storm conditions will begin to affect the warning areatonight or early Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 14.9N 103.8W 85 KT 100 MPH12H 23/0000Z 15.8N 105.2W 100 KT 115 MPH24H 23/1200Z 17.2N 105.7W 115 KT 130 MPH36H 24/0000Z 19.3N 105.5W 115 KT 130 MPH48H 24/1200Z 22.5N 103.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND72H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$Forecaster Brennan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 That's some ridiculous strengthening! Has Mexico even had a cat 4 make landfall before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 That's some ridiculous strengthening! Has Mexico even had a cat 4 make landfall before? Plenty of them, not to mention a handful of Cat 5s. ...they're pretty rare on the Pacific coast, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 Plenty of them, not to mention a handful of Cat 5s. ...they're pretty rare on the Pacific coast, though. I asked it with the Pacific coast in mind; wasn't really thinking about the Gulf. Most Pacific storms don't make landfall, from what I've seen. Pretty impressive on Satellite: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 Anyone know the size of PatricIA'S eye? 5 miles? Amazing to compare to annular Typhoon Champi's 70 mile eye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 I asked it with the Pacific coast in mind; wasn't really thinking about the Gulf. Most Pacific storms don't make landfall, from what I've seen. Pretty impressive on Satellite: Actually the Caribbean coast is the most prone to get cat 4+ landfalls. There have been 4 recorded cat 4+ landfalls in the EPac coast since 1957, all in the month of October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 87% is 6.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 87% is 11.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 87% is 16.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 87% is 23.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) HURRICANE PATRICIA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 100 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 This Special Advisory updates the initial and forecast intensity of Patricia, based on a recent NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft SFMR observation of 114 kt. The aircraft reported that the central pressure was around 958 mb. Some of the wind radii have also been adjusted outward. This Special Advisory replaces the 1800 UTC intermediate advisory. The environment is expected to be conducive for continued strengthening in the next 24 hours, with the cyclone in an area of very low shear and SSTs above 30C. Some slight weakening is shown on Friday prior to landfall, as southwesterly shear begins to increase, and Patricia could undergo an eyewall replacement cycle. After landfall, Patricia should rapidly weaken, and the low-level circulation should dissipate over the high terrain of Mexico before 72 hours. No change was made to the track forecast from the previous advisory. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Confidence is increasing that Patricia will make landfall in the hurricane warning area as an extremely dangerous major hurricane Friday afternoon or evening. Preparations to protect life and property in the hurricane warning area should be completed today, as tropical storm conditions will begin to affect the warning area tonight or early Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 FYI, josh is heading for an intercept of Pat on the Mexican coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 FYI, josh is heading for an intercept of Pat on the Mexican coast So you go to millersville? Just graduated with my met degree. Also this is probably due to that persistent trough sitting down there in the SW. This should make for some fun as the euro last night drags the precip and energy from patricia into the gulf and aids in the storm toward the end of the month. But also it takes the hurricane SE of Hawaii and moves it into a trough to affect possibly northern califronia. A lot of activity in the Pacific right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 Latest recon pass and IR eye warming show that it's probably still deepening. We'll have to wait for the latest Vortex message, but it looks like the eye pressure is 2-3 mb lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 So you go to millersville? Just graduated with my met degree. Also this is probably due to that persistent trough sitting down there in the SW. This should make for some fun as the euro last night drags the precip and energy from patricia into the gulf and aids in the storm toward the end of the month. But also it takes the hurricane SE of Hawaii and moves it into a trough to affect possibly northern califronia. A lot of activity in the Pacific right now. Awesome! There have been quite a few MU grads in this board over the past couple of years. My friend and I are currently in the early stages of doing a massive overhaul of the MU-WRF after a decade of little to no upgrades. Adding new domains, upgrading resolutions, products, data assim etc. Eric is excited to see what happens Michael Ventrice showed an ECMWF product restricted to WSI that showed the atmosphere was going to be in a state dominated by El Nino (about 4.5 SD above mean) which is probably why we're seeing such an active sub-tropical branch showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 Anyone know the size of PatricIA'S eye? 5 miles? Amazing to compare to annular Typhoon Champi's 70 mile eye M. C10 (Per latest VDM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 Latest recon pass and IR eye warming show that it's probably still deepening. We'll have to wait for the latest Vortex message, but it looks like the eye pressure is 2-3 mb lower. Down 5mb to 954mb per latest VDM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 Awesome! There have been quite a few MU grads in this board over the past couple of years. My friend and I are currently in the early stages of doing a massive overhaul of the MU-WRF after a decade of little to no upgrades. Adding new domains, upgrading resolutions, products, data assim etc. Eric is excited to see what happens Michael Ventrice showed an ECMWF product restricted to WSI that showed the atmosphere was going to be in a state dominated by El Nino (about 4.5 SD above mean) which is probably why we're seeing such an active sub-tropical branch showing up. That sounds awesome good luck with that overhaul. What is your name by the way i may actually know you. Anyways yea the tropics are certainly adding into the fun. Should be interesting to see how this evolves in the next coming weeks areas are in the regions are changing quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 Small, round eye is clearing up nicely...probably sub 950mb now. It's a shame that recon is pulling away right now. Shot at cat 5 in the next 15 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 Raw T# up to 7.1 UW - CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ADT-Version 8.2.1 Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 22 OCT 2015 Time : 194500 UTC Lat : 15:19:04 N Lon : 104:21:03 W CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 5.8 / 952.1mb/109.8kt Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 5.8 6.0 7.1 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km Center Temp : -31.8C Cloud Region Temp : -77.4C Scene Type : EYE Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr Weakening Flag : OFF Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs : - Average 34 knot radii : 97km - Environmental MSLP : 1009mb Satellite Name : GOES13 Satellite Viewing Angle : 38.1 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 Raw T# up to 7.1 UW - CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ADT-Version 8.2.1 Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 22 OCT 2015 Time : 194500 UTC Lat : 15:19:04 N Lon : 104:21:03 W CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 5.8 / 952.1mb/109.8kt Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 5.8 6.0 7.1 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km Center Temp : -31.8C Cloud Region Temp : -77.4C Scene Type : EYE Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr Weakening Flag : OFF Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs : - Average 34 knot radii : 97km - Environmental MSLP : 1009mb Satellite Name : GOES13 Satellite Viewing Angle : 38.1 degrees Was up to 7.2 earlier on Raw T. Numbers are bouncing around because it's hard to get a stable IR temp in the pinhole eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 Not too shabby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 Was up to 7.2 earlier on Raw T. Numbers are bouncing around because it's hard to get a stable IR temp in the pinhole eye. Missed that...anyways it's up to 7.4 and the eye is warming up nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 Missed that...anyways it's up to 7.4 and the eye is warming up nicely. Would have to think this thing is at 120-125+ kts sustained by this point. Going back to vortex's post on the main E Pac thread, this definitely has a shot at being a top 5 E Pac landfall in terms of strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 Thing looks like it has a good chance to make landfall at Cat. 5 potentially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 Would have to think this thing is at 120-125+ kts sustained by this point. Going back to vortex's post on the main E Pac thread, this definitely has a shot at being a top 5 E Pac landfall in terms of strength. Considering there have been only 4 115 kts+ landfalls in the EPac (Iniki would be the 5th in the CPac), the possibility is rather high...the only negative factors are that it's a really small storm and an ERC will be difficult to prevent... BTW, Raw T# up to 7.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 The pinhole will probably collapse at some point over the next 18-24 hours, but again Pat it traversing some of the most anomalous waters on the globe. Hard not to see this making landfall as at least a 100+ knot system. Josh is gonna be in for a hell of a ride. Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 The pinhole will probably collapse at some point over the next 18-24 hours, but again Pat it traversing some of the most anomalous waters on the globe. Hard not to see this making landfall as at least a 100+ knot system. Josh is gonna be in for a hell of a ride. Sent from my SM-G925V Yes, it's a good possibility that an ERC will start before landfall, but since we are roughly 24 hrs away from landfall, the inner eyewall might still be strong before that happens. Patricia's current satellite presentation is nearly that of a Cat 5 (22Z) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 Yes, it's a good possibility that an ERC will start before landfall, but since we are roughly 24 hrs away from landfall, the inner eyewall might still be strong before that happens. Patricia's current satellite presentation is nearly that of a Cat 5 (22Z) Luckily it is foretasted to make landfall near Las Penitas, which is a very sparsely populated stretch of coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 Luckily it is foretasted to make landfall near Las Penitas, which is a very sparsely populated stretch of coast. Yes, and it's a very small system in terms of hurricane winds radius...Still, Puerto Vallarta could see a very rough day if it goes directly over them. Can't resist posting the 22:15Z image...if that it's not a Cat 5, I don't know what is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 Yes, it's a good possibility that an ERC will start before landfall, but since we are roughly 24 hrs away from landfall, the inner eyewall might still be strong before that happens. Patricia's current satellite presentation is nearly that of a Cat 5 (22Z) Yeah its an extremely intense cyclone right now with -80c tops surrounding the eye. My prof who worked with the JTWC is even impressed by the rate of intensification Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 Those pink shades are 30-31˚C SSTs. Notice how they work their way up the coast past Puerto Vallarta as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 Yeah its an extremely intense cyclone right now with -80c tops surrounding the eye. My prof who worked with the JTWC is even impressed by the rate of intensification Yep, too bad there's no recon right now, central pressure is probably in the 930s or even 920s, but I think there's one departing near midnight...I calculate that would be while it's still near peak intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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