My 2015-2016 Winter Outlook

[DTWXRISK]

rjay   I   quoted his  forecast  verbatim  ---   and he does   as I read it  dismiss the idea of  Modoki   developing which   
 does not seem to be correct

2  I didnt  not say  El Nino Models...  I  showed actual data 

 

DT:

1. He stated many times this is a basin-wide El Nino. He never said it would be east-based.

2. Most models are showing El Nino has not peaked quite yet.

[OHweather]

Impressive work and I tend to agree in general with your conclusions, just posted elsewhere that I think the winter will have some very mild (warm even) periods in December and January, not so much later on when things may eventually become more wintry in the east.

Thanks Roger

 

Very impressive, OHWeather.  Can't say I disagree much at this point either.  Looking forward to our OV discussions this winter!  (Be it severe wx from lakes cutters or snow storms    )

Thanks! I'm hoping it's snow storms, not severe wx

 

Very well-written, thorough analysis with sound scientific evidence supporting your assertions. Hopefully the research pays dividends and it verifies. Can't say whether I agree or disagree with the conclusions yet, as I am still working on research for my outlook, which I hope to have complete in a couple of weeks. However, it isn't often that I see an outlook supported with robust science (and there have been many on the internet from various sources). Good to see some significant depth to the research beyond broad-brushing an ENSO event.

Thanks! I'll look forward to your outlook.

 

rjay   I   quoted his  forecast  verbatim  ---   and he does   as I read it  dismiss the idea of  Modoki   developing which   

 does not seem to be correct

2  I didnt  not say  El Nino Models...  I  showed actual data 

 

Thanks for comments DT.

 

1. As Rjay said, I argued that this definitely isn't an east based event (IE 97-98, 82-83), but a basin wide event. The recent cooling in the graphics you showed for region 1+2 (which has largely occurred after I wrote my outlook) is encouraging, as that further suggests that this event won't be east based like 97-98 or 82-83. With that said, as far as I'm aware (I may be wrong), modoki events have cooler than normal waters in 1+2; while the cooling there is good, the most recent 1+2 value on the graph you posted is still roughly +1.4. It's possible this becomes a modoki later on in winter, but right now I'd argue it isn't.

 

2. There has been a leveling off/slight cooling the last week. A new WWB appears to be developing east of the Dateline, which will probably stop any cooling/possibly cause some new warming:

 

I agree that this probably won't be a late peaking event and should weaken during the winter, but the new westerly winds may cause a little more warming before we hit a peak in the next month or so.

 

Overall, I'm expecting the winter to turn colder in the east during the second half of January and definitely for February. I wouldn't have forecast that if I expected an east based event that peaked in January, so overall I agree with your premise.

[DTWXRISK]

   fair  enough

[NJwinter23]

 

1. As Rjay said, I argued that this definitely isn't an east based event (IE 97-98, 82-83), but a basin wide event. The recent cooling in the graphics you showed for region 1+2 (which has largely occurred after I wrote my outlook) is encouraging, as that further suggests that this event won't be east based like 97-98 or 82-83. With that said, as far as I'm aware (I may be wrong), modoki events have cooler than normal waters in 1+2; while the cooling there is good, the most recent 1+2 value on the graph you posted is still roughly +1.4. It's possible this becomes a modoki later on in winter, but right now I'd argue it isn't.

 

 

 

Nice Research OHweather! One thing I will state is that the normal progression of an El Nino life cycle sees a more "modoki" look develop later in the winter, hence typically seeing back-weighted cold. So a little pet-peeve of mine is when ppl say modoki is developing in jan-feb..thats actually the norm for Nino's... Anyhow, I'm in your camp as far as this being a basin-wide event and certainly not modoki or anything close to going there... another WWB in fall here should only help establish that I believe. It remains to be seen though if we can see a normal progression to that "modoki" (for lack of a better way of exoplaining) look for late winter, which I would still probably forecast at this point. In other words, I personally have a warmer Jan than you, but agree on the colder Feb still...97-98 and 82-83 especially having continued nino strength in late winter definitely largely spoiled the hopes of a cold Feb those years (there were other things happening too that didnt help), and we will have to see if this currently similar magnitude event unfolds the same way (wall-to-wall canonical) or progresses in a more classic sense. I believe a firm wQBO should only help the late-winter AO trend negative as well fwiw. 

[OHweather]

Nice Research OHweather! One thing I will state is that the normal progression of an El Nino life cycle sees a more "modoki" look develop later in the winter, hence typically seeing back-weighted cold. So a little pet-peeve of mine is when ppl say modoki is developing in jan-feb..thats actually the norm for Nino's... Anyhow, I'm in your camp as far as this being a basin-wide event and certainly not modoki or anything close to going there... another WWB in fall here should only help establish that I believe. It remains to be seen though if we can see a normal progression to that "modoki" (for lack of a better way of exoplaining) look for late winter, which I would still probably forecast at this point. In other words, I personally have a warmer Jan than you, but agree on the colder Feb still...97-98 and 82-83 especially having continued nino strength in late winter definitely largely spoiled the hopes of a cold Feb those years (there were other things happening too that didnt help), and we will have to see if this currently similar magnitude event unfolds the same way (wall-to-wall canonical) or progresses in a more classic sense. I believe a firm wQBO should only help the late-winter AO trend negative as well fwiw. 

Thanks for the feedback!

[BlizzardWx]

This was a great read, thanks for your time in making it. It's unfortunate that I agree with you because I am tired of warm ridging here in the west. We haven't had a really great winter since 2010/2011. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just reading over this again because quite frankly, it should be linked on the homepage of this site owed to what in invaluable resource the outlook is.

 

I found this interesting regarding whether how this el nino may to may not manifest itself relative to further forcing scheme:

 

It’s notable that the positive OLR anomalies (associated with less convection than normal) across the Maritimes into the Indian Ocean are much more distinct with east based events than basin wide or Modoki ones, indicated a lack of MJO activity overall with east based events.

 

 

I'm sure that the east-based crew will drop me a line if in fact I'm mistaken, but the MJO has been rather active considering the magnitude of the current +ENSO event.

 

More food for thought to fuel hungry minds, as we await the final stanza of what has already proved to be unprecedented el nino event.