El Nino 2015 / 2016

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

since it's deserving of it's own thread.   (and since the threads in the other sections are boring)

 

I'll start off with..

[scottmartin49]

Really looking forward to seeing how this plays out. The warmth further north is a genuine joker in the deck, but it does look like the Aleutian low will be coming on as per normal. Interpreting the precip. maps on the seasonal's seems to be keeping the southern jet south, with only a curl north after reaching the Atlantic.

[Chambana]

Yep the "blob" is throwing a wrench in things.

Still riding the super Nino, mild winter for my backyard anyway. Still with a juices STJ, could squeak out a biggie. All I ask for is a nice Christmas snowstorm lol

[wolfpackmet]

It will be interesting to watch the development of the Aleutian low heading into winter.  Pretty far south looking at 500mb anoms over the last month but definitely building.  The "Blob" should take a hit with increased wind stress and mixing the next couple of months.

[stadiumwave]

It will be interesting to watch the development of the Aleutian low heading into winter. Pretty far south looking at 500mb anoms over the last month but definitely building. The "Blob" should take a hit with increased wind stress and mixing the next couple of months.

Untitled.png

Blob has already taken a hit & will diminish; however, +PDO will remain through winter.

To me, it's not the blob but the entire PAC warmth that throws a wrench in this strong El Nino winter

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

still strengthening quite significantly...

 

...just from a month ago to now. 

 

 

[stadiumwave]

Strengthening...it was the KW surfacing which many of us have said for weeks would take place end of NOV into early DEC. Now we move past peak into a slow demise.

[Jonger]

The image below doesn't look any stronger than the image above.

 

I'm not dismissing that it might have strengthened, it just doesn't look like it from those comparisons. 

[The_Global_Warmer]

The image below doesn't look any stronger than the image above.

I'm not dismissing that it might have strengthened, it just doesn't look like it from those comparisons.

Dude what???

Its dramatically different

[SVT450R]

This should help.

 

[AvantHiatus]

This should help.

 

El nino 15.gif

You can just sense the heat pouring into the troposphere and the amount of heat entering the global ocean since 2007. What will the next big el nino event look like?

[skierinvermont]

You can just sense the heat pouring into the troposphere and the amount of heat entering the global ocean since 2007. What will the next big el nino event look like?

 

You've got the mechanics wrong. It's unlikely that net heat is pouring into the troposphere from the oceans. What instead is likely happening is that the transfer of net heat into the oceans from the sun and atmosphere has slowed, causing a buildup of heat in the atmosphere.

 

If you look at OHC it will still have increased this year, although probably at a slower rate than non-El Nino years, if the data is precise enough.

[AvantHiatus]

http://www.trust.org/item/20151208190902-sok33/?source=fiOtherNews3

 

'Monster' El Nino could usher in decade of more and stronger events

 

 

While El Nino oscillates on a more or less yearly cycle, another dynamic in Pacific Ocean water temperatures, known as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), has the potential to accelerate global warming and increase the severity of El Nino episodes, scientists said. The last time the PDO was, as it may be now, in a prolonged positive, or "warm" phase, it corresponded with two of the strongest El Ninos on record.

"When you really have a monster El Nino, it could be enough to flip the PDO into a new phase for a decade or so," said William Patzert, a climatologist at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in California. "Keep your eyeballs peeled because maybe we're in for a decadal shift."

Previous warm phases have also coincided with increased precipitation on the U.S. West Coast, signaling potential relief for California from a severe drought.

Before January of 2014, the world experienced a 15-year period of mostly negative values for the Pacific oscillation, according to data maintained by Nathan Mantua, an atmospheric scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Oceans.

 

All we need now is a conclusive link between global warming and PDO. I have been saying for 2 years that a -PDO is no longer possible.

[CoastalWx]

http://www.trust.org/item/20151208190902-sok33/?source=fiOtherNews3

 

'Monster' El Nino could usher in decade of more and stronger events

 

 

All we need now is a conclusive link between global warming and PDO. I have been saying for 2 years that a -PDO is no longer possible.

PDO has to do with warm and cool pools relative to avg SSTs. So even in a warming world, you still can have a -PDO.

[AvantHiatus]

PDO has to do with warm and cool pools relative to avg SSTs. So even in a warming world, you still can have a -PDO.

We discussed this before some time ago and having a perpetually elevated SST average over the whole basin will throw a wrench into the PDO mode, ideally you would need warmer pools to cause a +PDO as time goes on.

 

No matter how you slice it, a neutral or positive PDO will be locked in until the feedback cycle is gone, as the warming inertia is too slow to create a large enough contrast to create a -PDO.

 

Thanks for your insight, this is important to me and hopefully to others. Pacific Ocean is the largest contiguous water-body in the world, and thus is a key driver of the global circulation.

 

The last month with a negative PDO was February 2014. June 2014 was neutral. Will be interesting to see how long this streak lasts.

[Msalgado]

http://www.trust.org/item/20151208190902-sok33/?source=fiOtherNews3

 

'Monster' El Nino could usher in decade of more and stronger events

 

 

All we need now is a conclusive link between global warming and PDO. I have been saying for 2 years that a -PDO is no longer possible.

 

 

We discussed this before some time ago and having a perpetually elevated SST average over the whole basin will throw a wrench into the PDO mode, ideally you would need warmer pools to cause a +PDO as time goes on.

 

No matter how you slice it, a neutral or positive PDO will be locked in until the feedback cycle is gone, as the warming inertia is too slow to create a large enough contrast to create a -PDO.

 

Thanks for your insight, this is important to me and hopefully to others. Pacific Ocean is the largest contiguous water-body in the world, and thus is a key driver of the global circulation.

 

The last month with a negative PDO was February 2014. June 2014 was neutral. Will be interesting to see how long this streak lasts.

 

You don't understand the dynamics of the ocean and atmosphere that lead to a PDO phase so how can you make these definitive statements?  If you don't know how something works, how can you possibly make predictions about what it will do?

[AvantHiatus]

You don't understand the dynamics of the ocean and atmosphere that lead to a PDO phase so how can you make these definitive statements?  If you don't know how something works, how can you possibly make predictions about what it will do?

It's not unprecedented to have a constant +PDO mode for 5+ years. I know how the PDO functions. Thermodynamics argues for a opposite reaction in different parts of the basin. I feel confident about this, it's more of a intuition. We'll be waiting a long time unfortunately.

 

I want to stress that el nino events are rare (or impossible?) during -PDO, and the pliocene is well known for its long duration basin wide super el nino events.

 

In addition, a constant +PDO would probably be required for a global temperature warming rate that exceeds the 1980-2000 rate. The main line of thinking is that by the time this new (potential?) positive PDO phase has run it's course, the global ocean would have absorbed enough heat from the GHG forcing causing natural internal variability to be fundamentally changed.

 

(For everything - AO, NAO, IPO, etc) This would be in the 2040'ish era. Long term PDO phases typically last 20-30 years, however there are negative months and phases within a larger positive phase. My current thinking is that this new +PDO phase is 50/50 natural variability and AGW, hence the early decline of the -PDO phase that began in 2000.

 

https://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/science/elninopdo/pdo/

 

 

 

During the warm early Pliocene (∼4.5 to 3.0 million years ago), the most recent interval with a climate warmer than today, the eastern Pacific thermocline was deep and the average west-to-east sea surface temperature difference across the equatorial Pacific was only 1.5 ± 0.9°C, much like it is during a modern El Niño event. Thus, the modern strong sea surface temperature gradient across the equatorial Pacific is not a stable and permanent feature. Sustained El Niño-like conditions, including relatively weak zonal atmospheric (Walker) circulation, could be a consequence of, and play an important role in determining, global warmth

https://www.sciencemag.org/content/309/5735/758.abstract

[AvantHiatus]

 Detectability of Changes in the Walker Circulation in Response to Global Warming

Pedro N. DiNezio, Gabriel A. Vecchi, and Amy C. Clement, 2013: Detectability of Changes in the Walker Circulation in Response to Global Warming*. J. Climate, 26, 4038–4048.

doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00531.1

 

Abstract

Changes in the gradients in sea level pressure (SLP) and sea surface temperature (SST) along the equatorial Pacific are analyzed in observations and 101 numerical experiments performed with 37 climate models participating in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The ensemble of numerical experiments simulates changes in the earth’s climate during the 1870–2004 period in response to changes in natural (solar variations and volcanoes) and anthropogenic (well-mixed greenhouse gases, ozone, direct aerosol forcing, and land use) radiative forcings. A reduction in the zonal SLP gradient is present in observational records and is the typical response of the ensemble, yet only 26 out of the 101 experiments exhibit a reduced SLP gradient within 95% statistical confidence of the observed value. The multimodel response indicates a reduction of the Walker circulation to historical forcings, albeit an order of magnitude smaller than the observed value. There are multiple nonexclusive interpretations of these results: (i) the observed trend may not be entirely forced and includes a substantial component from internal variability; (ii) there are problems with the observational record that lead to a spuriously large trend; and (iii) the strength of the Walker circulation, as measured by the zonal SLP gradient, may be less sensitive to external forcing in models than in the real climate system. Analysis of a subset of experiments suggests that greenhouse gases act to weaken the circulation, but aerosol forcing drives a strengthening of the circulation, which appears to be overestimated by the models, resulting in a muted response to the combined anthropogenic forcings.

 

 

[nzucker]

El Nino events are not rare in -PDO cycles. 72-73 was the 3rd strongest El Nino on record and occurred during a long period of the -PDO. We also had back-to-back El Ninos in 68-69/69-70 during that same -PDO cycle.

[AvantHiatus]

El Nino events are not rare in -PDO cycles. 72-73 was the 3rd strongest El Nino on record and occurred during a long period of the -PDO. We also had back-to-back El Ninos in 68-69/69-70 during that same -PDO cycle.

Some maps would be helpful. I believe you tho. I am untrustworthy of older analogs pre-1985 and question how they can be of any use to the constantly evolving anthropogenic climate system. It seems like the 72-73 event occured during a warm PDO inside a larger -PDO phase.

[Msalgado]

It's not unprecedented to have a constant +PDO mode for 5+ years. I know how the PDO functions. Thermodynamics argues for a opposite reaction in different parts of the basin. I feel confident about this, it's more of a intuition. We'll be waiting a long time unfortunately.

 

I want to stress that el nino events are rare (or impossible?) during -PDO, and the pliocene is well known for its long duration basin wide super el nino events.

 

In addition, a constant +PDO would probably be required for a global temperature warming rate that exceeds the 1980-2000 rate. The main line of thinking is that by the time this new (potential?) positive PDO phase has run it's course, the global ocean would have absorbed enough heat from the GHG forcing causing natural internal variability to be fundamentally changed.

 

(For everything - AO, NAO, IPO, etc) This would be in the 2040'ish era. Long term PDO phases typically last 20-30 years, however there are negative months and phases within a larger positive phase. My current thinking is that this new +PDO phase is 50/50 natural variability and AGW, hence the early decline of the -PDO phase that began in 2000.

 

https://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/science/elninopdo/pdo/

 

 

Once again.  You do not know how the PDO functions.  You don't know what causes it and/or how it forms, so how on earth can you make prognostications going forward?  No one, AFAIK is trying anything other than short term PDO forecasts (few years) and those aren't really PDO forecasts in so much as they are ENSO and other parts of the PDO paradaigm being forecast.

 

If you don't know how something functions, then how on earth can you display any skill in forecasting it?

[AvantHiatus]

Once again.  You do not know how the PDO functions.  You don't know what causes it and/or how it forms, so how on earth can you make prognostications going forward?  No one, AFAIK is trying anything other than short term PDO forecasts (few years) and those aren't really PDO forecasts in so much as they are ENSO and other parts of the PDO paradaigm being forecast.

 

If you don't know how something functions, then how on earth can you display any skill in forecasting it?

Enlighten me on the dynamics of the PDO. Let's get straight to the point, what exactly do you not agree with and why?

 

Don't have much faith in paleoclimate? 

 

In hindsight, I would have gone back and just left PDO out of the discussion (El Nino is strongly favored in a +PDO). I still think a permanent el nino state will occur this century or early next century without mitigation (geoengineering).

 

A slowing walker circulation makes it more difficult to observe surface up-welling in the tropics, which would diminish the occurrence of La Nina events.

[so_whats_happening]

Enlighten me on the dynamics of the PDO. Let's get straight to the point, what exactly do you not agree with and why?

 

Don't have much faith in paleoclimate? 

 

In hindsight, I would have gone back and just left PDO out of the discussion (El Nino is strongly favored in a +PDO). I still think a permanent el nino state will occur this century or early next century without mitigation (geoengineering).

 

A slowing walker circulation makes it more difficult to observe surface up-welling in the tropics, which would diminish the occurrence of La Nina events.

Im not real storng in the connections of oscillations but it seems as though yes there is a 20-30 year cycle of the PDO but that in these phases it can be changed in a way by Nino/Nina events. 97-98 only amplified the PDO as the el nino grew while then end of 98-01 we had extensive la nina coverage which in turn flipped the PDO and amplified the pattern for a - period within a positive phase. 

 

I do not feel anthropogenic forcings play a role in switching or creating these phases. We would have seen this in the past. 

 

I dont know about you but when the industrial revolution came about I would say this 40-50 year period where rapid industrialization was probably our worse time period. We threw extensive amounts of black coal particles and had very very unhealthy standards overall. While today it is not perfect we are definitely taking efforts in not throwing nearly as much black soot and particles like that into the atmosphere and the emissions are a lot cleaner. Cars for instance use to throw huge amounts of emissions into the air thats why the have filters and such to take care of this problem. We could not refine the oil and gas as we can now back then allowing todays gas to be cleaner. It does not help we are throwing up almost double what has happened in the past but these are changes. The day we finally change from a plant based emission will be the day but until then we are left with finding the in between effects of such.

 

I have a hard time with only basing data off the 1979 standard of satellite data as well. We have in-situ data for various regions up to about 1880-1900 some even more sporadic before this and their are tales of the past of warming and cooling events. I know we paleoclimatic data and ice core samples to use but I just dont think these can accurately represent what was occurring during those times. We cant even get our current pattern down to a T without something going wrong how are we supposed to understand something that was before our time with little recorded proof to back it up.

 

Oh well ending rant.

[Jonger]

Im not real storng in the connections of oscillations but it seems as though yes there is a 20-30 year cycle of the PDO but that in these phases it can be changed in a way by Nino/Nina events. 97-98 only amplified the PDO as the el nino grew while then end of 98-01 we had extensive la nina coverage which in turn flipped the PDO and amplified the pattern for a - period within a positive phase. 

 

I do not feel anthropogenic forcings play a role in switching or creating these phases. We would have seen this in the past. 

 

I dont know about you but when the industrial revolution came about I would say this 40-50 year period where rapid industrialization was probably our worse time period. We threw extensive amounts of black coal particles and had very very unhealthy standards overall. While today it is not perfect we are definitely taking efforts in not throwing nearly as much black soot and particles like that into the atmosphere and the emissions are a lot cleaner. Cars for instance use to throw huge amounts of emissions into the air thats why the have filters and such to take care of this problem. We could not refine the oil and gas as we can now back then allowing todays gas to be cleaner. It does not help we are throwing up almost double what has happened in the past but these are changes. The day we finally change from a plant based emission will be the day but until then we are left with finding the in between effects of such.

 

I have a hard time with only basing data off the 1979 standard of satellite data as well. We have in-situ data for various regions up to about 1880-1900 some even more sporadic before this and their are tales of the past of warming and cooling events. I know we paleoclimatic data and ice core samples to use but I just dont think these can accurately represent what was occurring during those times. We cant even get our current pattern down to a T without something going wrong how are we supposed to understand something that was before our time with little recorded proof to back it up.

 

Oh well ending rant.

 

Read about the average viewing distance in the Smokey Mountains. 

 

“In 1998, visibility averaged nine miles on haziest days. Now, it’s about 32 miles on average.”

 

http://www.knoxnews.com/news/local-news/clear-view-of-smokies-confirms-air-quality-is-improving_76614585

 

You have to wonder how much extra solar energy is hitting the ground today versus the 1970's.

[AvantHiatus]

Read about the average viewing distance in the Smokey Mountains. 

 

“In 1998, visibility averaged nine miles on haziest days. Now, it’s about 32 miles on average.”

 

http://www.knoxnews.com/news/local-news/clear-view-of-smokies-confirms-air-quality-is-improving_76614585

 

You have to wonder how much extra solar energy is hitting the ground today versus the 1970's.

Reduction in global dimming is certainly playing a role in being so far above 97-98 on the surface temperature datasets with ENSO not being warmer. It's a key reason to expect a rapid increase in temperatures for a while. 

[nflwxman]

Read about the average viewing distance in the Smokey Mountains. 

 

“In 1998, visibility averaged nine miles on haziest days. Now, it’s about 32 miles on average.”

 

http://www.knoxnews.com/news/local-news/clear-view-of-smokies-confirms-air-quality-is-improving_76614585

 

You have to wonder how much extra solar energy is hitting the ground today versus the 1970's.

Global aerosal concentration may have decreased over the US the last 20 years, but it still has been rising in China per the recent images out of Beijing.  I'm not well read on the topic, but I believe recent studies suggest aerosal concentration has been steady the last 5 years.

[skierinvermont]

Read about the average viewing distance in the Smokey Mountains. 

 

“In 1998, visibility averaged nine miles on haziest days. Now, it’s about 32 miles on average.”

 

http://www.knoxnews.com/news/local-news/clear-view-of-smokies-confirms-air-quality-is-improving_76614585

 

You have to wonder how much extra solar energy is hitting the ground today versus the 1970's.

 

 

So regional un-dimming has a warming effect, but massive global dimming from the 50s through 70s didn't have a cooling effect?

 

And despite a small reversal in some regions, the earth is far far dimmer than it was 100+ years ago. Again, the obvious point to go along with your point is that while regional un-dimming may have had a slight warming effect in some regions, global dimming the past 100+ years has probably cut the overall warming in half.

 

Also don't forget that while the SE may have slightly un-dimmed, the globe has probably continued to dim the last 15 years (SE Asia - China, India, Thailand etc. have atrocious air quality even compared to just 15 years ago). 

[skierinvermont]

Reduction in global dimming is certainly playing a role in being so far above 97-98 on the surface temperature datasets with ENSO not being warmer. It's a key reason to expect a rapid increase in temperatures for a while. 

 

nope

[AvantHiatus]

nope

It is not an exclusive relationship between GHG forcing and temperatures. I'm not saying this is the main cause of the current warming. Most likely the GHG forcing has also increased in tandem. I think you are forgetting how warm the globe is right now, it is about 1.3C above pre-industrial!

 

How can ENSO and GHG forcing account for such a massive burst of heat? This is what is mind-boggling. According to climate reanalyzer, the northern hemisphere is 1.5C above pre-industrial.

 

Leaving the aerosols out, I am left only to conclude we are experiencing a non-linear response in the climate as a prelude to abrupt climate change.

 

Hansen warned about the Faustian bargain, aerosol forcing has reduced global temperatures by about 0.8C since 1950. That's pretty significant. Infact, we need to keep adding aerosols into the atmosphere indefinitely if we want to secure the 2C global temperature target.

 

China and India will inevitably adopt clean energy technologies. The only source of aerosols remaining would be from exotic theories such as chemtrails and the like.

 

We are in for some crazy stuff if the Aerosol forcing has increased in recent times. That's all I know at this point. Like most, I don't actively track this topic.

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

thoughts on the substantial cooling over the last 2 weeks...southern hemisphere ?  (ocean)

 

As some have posted in the past...if we were to ever see early cooling signs due to an extended solar minimum.  It should be noticed quicker in the South.  (away from all the industrialized pollution , carbon , etc)  .....right ? 

 

Thought this was interesting regardless -  (dark blues)