Met1985 Posted December 29, 2015 Author Share Posted December 29, 2015 ours has stayed on so far but it continues to pour and the wind is relentless.Yeah not a good combination. The ground is just way to saturated. If we continue to be very wet then have some strong cold fronts with some heavy winds then a lot of trees are going to be down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Decent chance between Jan8th-14th I think many in the mountains could see a winter weather event. Cold is within reach to our north and looks like 1 or 2 waves of moisture could come together if the timing is right. Maybe further east too like Winston? I know the models may not show any blockbuster winter storm but I think the potential is there for something wintry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonhowl Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 That was some heavy rain; the creek below is as high as I have ever seen it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 I hope they miss the heavy rain predicted for tonite and Wednesday. We had bad flooding last night and if we get the 3 more inches they are calling for it's gonna get bad fast. I've had 12.13 inches over the last 10 days alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 I hope they miss the heavy rain predicted for tonite and Wednesday. We had bad flooding last night and if we get the 3 more inches they are calling for it's gonna get bad fast. I've had 12.13 inches over the last 10 days alone. I think it's going to end up further east...but still some fog/showery weather maybe 0.25" in the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 30, 2015 Author Share Posted December 30, 2015 We are getting heavy rain again this morning. Looks like we are right on the line to get hammered again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Probably being obvious here, given what we saw in the winter discussion thread, but I really think January 10th to 15th is promising for NC mountains. Exciting times ahead! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 I'm trying not to get my hopes up. But the models are making that really tough lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 I'm trying not to get my hopes up. But the models are making that really tough lol. My hopes are higher this year for sure, but that had more to do with relocating from Columbia. I've seen two flizzards already, one more than last season, so that's something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 I'm always skeptical and after a month like December this weekend feels like an arctic chill. Hopefully something materializes in the next two weeks. I know we have a long time to go in winter but once you start getting to the middle of January winter time really starts to fly by. Someone also needs to tell the March flowers and Yellow Bell bushes in my yard that it is January not late March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 We're going to get clobbered sometime this winter I feel it. But I'm not ready to cash in my chips on the first storm we watch for lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 1, 2016 Author Share Posted January 1, 2016 Yeah if things materialize we should have several big snows for this season but always be cautious. Also iv heard some Mets say we will not be as cold as the last few years but what the Euro is advertising is true arctic air. Fun time ahead. I'm glad it actually looks and feels like winter today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Yeah if things materialize we should have several big snows for this season but always be cautious. Also iv heardrum some Mets say we will not be as cold as the last few years but what the Euro is advertising is true arctic air. Fun time ahead. I'm glad it actually looks and feels like winter today. Last few winters were incredible in term of the cold, but also mostly dry. I think we'll have a better chance at big snowstorms now that deep Arctic troughs aren't pushing storms into Atlantic rather than moving up the coast with some blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 1, 2016 Author Share Posted January 1, 2016 Last few winters were incredible in term of the cold, but also mostly dry. I think we'll have a better chance at big snowstorms now that deep Arctic troughs aren't pushing storms into Atlantic rather than moving up the coast with some blocking.Yeah I agree. We need the nao for all of us to really cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Looks like we could have some decent NWF moisture available Monday into Tuesday, especially up towards Boone. I wouldn't be surprised if most everyone above 2000' got at least flurries. With temps predicted to get in the low 20's tonight, flakes will be much more likely to stick then they would have been a week ago. I think someone in the valley like Burnsville sees a quick .5"-1" of snow from this flow. Long range patterns looks to be the most conducive for accumulating snowfall here in WNC that we have seen in a few years. I am betting that we have multiple large snow threats to track over the next two months. Business is really about to start picking up here around Amwx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Enjoy what we have.... I always say winter will never be enjoyed inside sitting behind a computer screen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 At this point I don't want a storm next weekend at all if it's going to be rain. Hate to see the slopes get hit again. But at least I get a couple of good skiing days next week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 2, 2016 Author Share Posted January 2, 2016 Looks like we could have some decent NWF moisture available Monday into Tuesday, especially up towards Boone. I wouldn't be surprised if most everyone above 2000' got at least flurries. With temps predicted to get in the low 20's tonight, flakes will be much more likely to stick then they would have been a week ago. I think someone in the valley like Burnsville sees a quick .5"-1" of snow from this flow. Long range patterns looks to be the most conducive for accumulating snowfall here in WNC that we have seen in a few years. I am betting that we have multiple large snow threats to track over the next two months. Business is really about to start picking up here around Amwx. Good stuff Ward! Yeah it finally feels like winter. We had a low of 21 this morning and are currently at 29 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Good stuff Ward! Yeah it finally feels like winter. We had a low of 21 this morning and are currently at 29 degrees. Thanks man! Yeah it really does and it feels great. Monday night into Tuesday is going to be bone chilling cold too. I bet you get below 15! GFS had KAVL at 21 on Tuesday morning so that will be a big shock to peoples systems who have been lulled to sleep by these ridiculous temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 3, 2016 Author Share Posted January 3, 2016 Thanks man! Yeah it really does and it feels great. Monday night into Tuesday is going to be bone chilling cold too. I bet you get below 15! GFS had KAVL at 21 on Tuesday morning so that will be a big shock to peoples systems who have been lulled to sleep by these ridiculous temperatures.Yeah we maybe colder. Tonight we are already down to 22 degrees. Yeah it will be nice to see some upslope action and pretty cold weather. We really need this cold to halt the plants and trees from blooming and going into a growth spirt. Keep us updated man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 3, 2016 Author Share Posted January 3, 2016 Looking at the chance for some upslope snow this Monday and Monday night, I actually really like the look. If you look at the big picture there is a moisture feed coming right off of Lake Michigan right down to us. With the very warm waters and strong vortex I would suspect the boarder counties get there first advisory snow event of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Looking at the chance for some upslope snow this Monday and Monday, I actually really like the look. If you look at the big picture there is a moisture feed coming right off of Lake Michigan right down to us. With the very warm waters and strong vortex I would suspect the boarder counties get there first advisory snow event of the season. Yeah this flow looks to be good, I agree. The ski resorts need it.. I wouldn't mind seeing a dusting in Asheville myself. I will do some bufkit analysis tomorrow and see what the 700mb wind flow look like and how much moisture is expected to be in the snow growth region. The NAM and NAM 4km should be getting in there range and I like to use them since they are calibrated somewhat for orographic lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 3, 2016 Author Share Posted January 3, 2016 Yeah this flow looks to be good, I agree. The ski resorts need it.. I wouldn't mind seeing a dusting in Asheville myself. I will do some bufkit analysis tomorrow and see what the 700mb wind flow look like and how much moisture is expected to be in the snow growth region. The NAM and NAM 4km should be getting in there range and I like to use them since they are calibrated somewhat for orographic lift.Good stuff Ward. Keep us updated man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 12z 4km NAM isn't really showing too much substance on the model plots, but as I delved deeper into the buffet data.. there looks to be a good bit of moisture available below 850mb with this system, and with temps as cold as what are being shown, the snow growth region will be very close to the surface. Thus, it will be much easier for flakes to make it to the surface in the valleys since the column is saturated all the way down to the valley floor. Tomorrow looks to be advertised as the most active day of flakes we have seen this season (which isn't saying much) per the NAM. Like I said earlier, I like to use the NAM since it is somewhat tuned to take into consideration orographic lift. With a saturated column to the surface, flakes will experience less evaporation upon decent, since they will not be fighting dry air. With winds throughout most of WNC predicted to be +15kts at the surface, snowflake perpetuation through the high mountains shouldn't be a problem. This will be another factor that allows flakes to push farther than a run of the mill NWFS. The two bufkit overviews I have below are from the 12z 4km NAM & the 12 NAM. Notice how the 4km is advertising a fully saturated snow growth region all the way down to Fletcher, NC (KAVL) Monday night. On the contrary, the lower res NAM does not see that same column as complete saturated so it believes fewer flakes will make it to the surface. They both though portray an environment favorable for grapel Monday morning with extremely cold surface temps. This flow is somewhat unique and it could push NWF moisture to places that don't typically see it.. I think tomorrow will be a very interesting day here around WNC weather-wise. Bufkit 12z 4km NAM for KAVL: Bufkit 12z NAM for KAVL: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 3, 2016 Author Share Posted January 3, 2016 Thank Ward. It will be nice just to see some flakes falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Ready for a real storm. The upcoming pattern is ripe for some big gulf lows with cold enough air for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 I'm not giving up on the potential for something the week of the 11th. Heading up to Mount Mitchell Tuesday with some relatives coming into town. Should be quite the welcome to winter for them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 I'm not giving up on the potential for something the week of the 11th. Heading up to Mount Mitchell Tuesday with some relatives coming into town. Should be quite the welcome to winter for them still watching that one too, has a lot of potential for the western part of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 3, 2016 Author Share Posted January 3, 2016 still watching that one too, has a lot of potential for the western part of the state.Yeah I think so to. We could be looking at a few upslope events with some synoptic events also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 3, 2016 Author Share Posted January 3, 2016 Also getting some nice cold mornings with a low of 18 this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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