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4th Annual Fall/Winter Thread for the Mountains/Foothills


Met1985

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Hard to believe it was snowing a week ago. That system did bust somewhat on the dry slot. Perhaps it could have recovered without the heavy precip or convection south, but a weak wave to the north contributed to the dry slot. While the southern system transitioned east, another weaker short-wave passed north. Sometimes those can be overcome, but too much went wrong. Still areas above 4,000 FT picked up a couple inches.

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Hard to believe it was snowing a week ago. That system did bust somewhat on the dry slot. Perhaps it could have recovered without the heavy precip or convection south, but a weak wave to the north contributed to the dry slot. While the southern system transitioned east, another weaker short-wave passed north. Sometimes those can be overcome, but too much went wrong. Still areas above 4,000 FT picked up a couple inches.

Yeah, that wave to the north did us in as it held together pretty good and produced over 4" in Northeast Kentucky.

Seems like northern stream systems really hurt the entire area, moreso Knoxville South.

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A rare sounding spit out by the 4km NAM suggests decent tornadic parameters will be in place tomorrow afternoon across WNC.  With 1km SRH pushing 300 m2/s2 and 3km SRH above 500 m2/s2, a spin up could occur.  An STP of 1.9 is not eye popping, but a value over 1 is considered noteworthy with tornado being possible.  I could also see some sizable hail with these cells that develop.  Tomorrow could be an interesting day for severe weather here in WNC.

 

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Sunday is looking more and more likely we may some significant snow for this time of the year. It looks like we may see two impulses come in. One Saturday morning then Saturday afternoon and overnight. Looks pretty good currently with temps hanging in the 30s for the most part in the mountains.

Interesting setup for sure. CMC drops 5" at KAVL. I like the phased solution compared to the one two punch for valley accumulation. Would be colder though with two waves imo. After that last event, I have a hard time seeing this thread the needle, but it certainly is not impossible and could very well trend in our favor over the next 5 days. March Madness and snow, wow that would be an awesome combo. I think the high mountains are in a great spot and should at least get a couple of inches.

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Interesting setup for sure. CMC drops 5" at KAVL. I like the phased solution compared to the one two punch for valley accumulation. Would be colder though with two waves imo. After that last event, I have a hard time seeing this thread the needle, but it certainly is not impossible and could very well trend in our favor over the next 5 days. March Madness and snow, wow that would be an awesome combo. I think the high mountains are in a great spot and should at least get a couple of inches.

Yeah I agree. Usually when we get systems this late they are a very heavy wet snow. Should be fun to track as long as it doesn't trend bad for us.
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I still like our snow chances Sunday into Sunday night. Things still look promising.

 

Looks like this will be a Mt. LeConte special...they should get pounded with 6 to 12" of snow especially if some of the higher QPF totals from the NAM 4 materializes.

 

I'm sure Newfound Gap will be beautiful tomorrow morning after(or if) they open the road.

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GSP this morning...

LAPSE RATES UNDER THE PASSING TROUGH ALONG WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SUPPORT AN INTERESTING POSSIBILITY FOR SNOW...HAIL...OR GRAUPEL TO POSSIBLY REACH THE GROUND OUT OVER THE PIEDMONT DURING THE MOST INTENSE RATES. THIS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED...BUT COULD CREATE BRIEF EXCITEMENT. PROFILES WILL SUPPORT PRIMARILY SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE PERIOD OF BETTER FORCING. WARMER VALLEYS WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS...BUT LOCATIONS ABOVE 3500 FEET COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO...WITH POSSIBLY 3 TO 4 INCHES ON TOP OF THE SMOKIES BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. WITH ADVISORY ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY FROM 4000 TO 6000 FEET...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR SNOW AT THIS POINT.
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Looks like this will be a Mt. LeConte special...they should get pounded with 6 to 12" of snow especially if some of the higher QPF totals from the NAM 4 materializes.

I'm sure Newfound Gap will be beautiful tomorrow morning after(or if) they open the road.

Yeah things look like a go. A can confirm it is snowing up on Balsam currently. Temps in the 30s.
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I've got a good sloppy inch here, Very pretty snow fall though. Temps are falling slowly, only down to 29.1. 

 

I'm done. A very mediocre winter but it's time to put it in the books, Bring on spring and let's try again next year. Thanks again for all your expertise and enthusiasm. It's always fun with you guys !

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