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4th Annual Fall/Winter Thread for the Mountains/Foothills


Met1985

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The main slug of precip will be moving in from the southwest. It develops on the TN/AL border and then moves east until the low transfers. The northern mountains need a quicker phase to happen and for it to try and go neg tilt as the moisture arrives.

what does the Euro have?
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what does the Euro have?

Euro had .4" of Qpf for AVL and .5" for Franklin. So twice as much precip in AVL on the 00z run compared to yesterday's 12z and .1" more for Franklin. Temps are very borderline through the column so I would love to see a colder trend over the next 18 hrs.

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Euro had .4" of Qpf for AVL and .5" for Franklin. So twice as much precip in AVL on the 00z run compared to yesterday's 12z and .1" more for Franklin. Temps are very borderline through the column so I would love to see a colder trend over the next 18 hrs.

rgem came in a little colder.
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All models show a decent event except for the Gfs, maybe that's what they are looking at? Even the Gfs para has a decent hit.

That's what I was thinking, the Euro has been fairly consistent the last few days, even the GFS didn't look to terrible. I have alot of respect for GSP, there normally spot on, that's what worry's me, maybe they will change there tune by tomorrow, if the rest of the runs remain consistent.

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That's what I was thinking, the Euro has been fairly consistent the last few days, even the GFS didn't look to terrible. I have alot of respect for GSP, there normally spot on, that's what worry's me, maybe they will change there tune by tomorrow, if the rest of the runs remain consistent.

 

I suspect that if the upstate is not in play, even above I-85, GSP can get a little lackadaisical. If this is going to be anything, it's strictly going to be an NC Mountain special, it appears.

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I suspect that if the upstate is not in play, even above I-85, GSP can get a little lackadaisical. If this is going to be anything, it's strictly going to be an NC Mountain special, it appears.

 

One thing to factor in is that road temps are likely going to still be pretty warm going into this, which should limit travel impacts to some degree, even for areas that get several inches of snow.

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One thing to factor in is that road temps are likely going to still be pretty warm going into this, which should limit travel impacts to some degree, even for areas that get several inches of snow.

Absolutely. I have seen this setup many times in my life. GSP downplays it, it snows a few inches but doesn't hinder travel, it melts by the afternoon. I remember being in school in March, it would snow, they'd call off school, and the snow would dang near be gone by the time I got to the house.

 

My gut is telling me a few inches, but I understand GSP's stance in believing this will not be a significant event by any stretch of the imagination. I could see a few wet inches sticking to the grass and trees, and come Friday at 5, we'll have a muddy mess.

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One thing to factor in is that road temps are likely going to still be pretty warm going into this, which should limit travel impacts to some degree, even for areas that get several inches of snow.

Roads were white in many places this morning in the Boone area so I honestly don't see that being a factor what so ever.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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Snow is still on track at elevation esp 4,000 FT. Some models are balking on snow output. Believe it is due to a warm 850-700 mb partial thickness. At elevation it does not matter as much as elsewhere. Traditional and more relevant 1000-500 mb thickness is at 540 no problem. A look at 700 mb alone shows -10C most models which is great for snow. The 1000-700 mb partial thickness is also favorable. Perhaps models are confused by the 850-700 mb thickness, which does not hurt at elevation. So the surface is 35 F a couple hours before sunset Thursday, not a show stopper at all.

 

12Z NAM has a dry slot that allows the boundary layer to warm up a bit for a few hours, 850 slightly above freezing and 700 at -6 or so, if a dry slot really does verify perfectly 36 hours out. Yeah it happened right before President's Day but this is a different situation. No massive warm push is forecast during the event. QPF still looks nice. And the 18Z NAM just in removes of the above trouble. Even if a dry slot comes over, it is just a break not the end. Look for the NWFS encore into Friday morning.

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Snow is still on track at elevation esp 4,000 FT. Some models are balking on snow output. Believe it is due to a warm 850-700 mb partial thickness. At elevation it does not matter as much as elsewhere. Traditional and more relevant 1000-500 mb thickness is at 540 no problem. A look at 700 mb alone shows -10C most models which is great for snow. The 1000-700 mb partial thickness is also favorable. Perhaps models are confused by the 850-700 mb thickness, which does not hurt at elevation. So the surface is 35 F a couple hours before sunset Thursday, not a show stopper at all.

NAM has a dry slot that allows the boundary layer to warm up a bit for a few hours, 850 slightly above freezing and 700 at -6 or so, if a dry slot really does verify perfectly 36 hours out. Yeah it happened right before President's Day but this is a different situation. No massive warm push is forecast during the event. QPF still looks nice. Even if a dry slot comes over, it is just a break not the end. Look for the NWFS encore into Friday morning.

Great post Jeff! I am thinking that this one surprises a few people.

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GSP seems to be getting on board somewhat. From the HWO:

 

 ..THURSDAY...WINTER STORM POSSIBLE. RAIN SHOWERS WILL MIX OVER TO

SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST TO
OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY
ABOVE 3500 FEET.

 

..FRIDAY...WINTER STORM POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW
FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS FRIDAY
MORNING. UNTREATED ROADS AND BRIDGES MAY DEVELOP BLACK ICE OR
PACKED SNOW. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TENNESSEE LINE.

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GSP seems to be getting on board somewhat. From the HWO:

..THURSDAY...WINTER STORM POSSIBLE. RAIN SHOWERS WILL MIX OVER TO

SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS THURSDAY

AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST TO

OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY

ABOVE 3500 FEET.

..FRIDAY...WINTER STORM POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW

FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS FRIDAY

MORNING. UNTREATED ROADS AND BRIDGES MAY DEVELOP BLACK ICE OR

PACKED SNOW. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE

MORNING HOURS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TENNESSEE LINE.

Yep seems so. Things are looking pretty good.
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