Hvward Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Models might be coming around to something for us all on Friday. Temps are borderline though, but 850mb are going to make it very close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Models might be coming around to something for us all on Friday. Temps are borderline though, but 850mb are going to make it very close. Yeah I was looking at that, it's going to be threading a needle for sure, especially here in the foothills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 12z Nam looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 12z Nam looks good Real good. Wedgie style. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Regret not trying harder to clear my calendar Thur/Friday last week. Ski areas did well with snow. Well the Euro is the model of second chances. GFS has been all over the place but the Euro and its Parallel have been consistent. First, Wednesday looks to end as snow for the ski areas and perhaps most of the High Country. Euro/Para have not wavered from a surface low track south of the High Country Thursday night. 500 mb vort max remains safely south on Euro/Para. GFS is finally getting a clue after weekend waffling. Euro/Para has boundary layer a bit warm Valleys, but it is a snow event mountains. QPF is a bit south but we know snow will come out more/north than forecast. And the 12Z Euro does just that! Itching for another chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Euro is 4-6 for most Mtn locations, big hit for balsams and smokies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 29, 2016 Author Share Posted February 29, 2016 Euro is 4-6 for most Mtn locations, big hit for balsams and smokies.Nice. Looks like it came in further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Nice. Looks like it came in further south.think it was about the same, just a little more qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 think it was about the same, just a little more qpf.Yeah more qpf and it was a few hours quicker with the snow also. 925mb temps at KAVL are frozen when the precip moves in on the 12z compared to +2 on the 0z euro. Qpf went from .3" of liquid to .6" of liquid from the 0z to 12z. I would love to see that type trend continue lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 12z Para Euro is also a decent hit for WNC with 3"+ for most above 2000'. It really bombs the low off the coast too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Euro para is a southern Mtn special! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 12z Para Euro is also a decent hit for WNC with 3"+ for most above 2000'. It really bombs the low off the coast too.Its really light on qpf, the 18z gfs came in colder with a decent hit. The eps mean bumped up to 2 inches here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Its really light on qpf, the 18z gfs came in colder with a decent hit. The eps mean bumped up to 2 inches here. Yeah it was pretty light compared to the 12z operational euro. It would be fine with me if it was a southern man special and I got 2" while you cashed in with 8". I mean it is only fair since you kind of got the short end of the stick because of CAD on the last big snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Yeah it was pretty light compared to the 12z operational euro. It would be fine with me if it was a southern man special and I got 2" while you cashed in with 8". I mean it is only fair since you kind of got the short end of the stick because of CAD on the last big snow.its fine, hopefully we can all cash in with a nice 6-8. We had a couple 3 inch events when y'all got nothing. We also did ok with the long duration upslope events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 I'm very undecided on if I want snow anymore after how nice today was. Anyone else have a lot of wind this morning? Wasn't really expecting that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 I'm very undecided on if I want snow anymore after how nice today was. Anyone else have a lot of wind this morning? Wasn't really expecting that. Yes was very windy here in the foothills. Had lawn furniture all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 0z eps up to 2" for KAVL. Second time in a row the OP has given KAVL 5". I would be surprised if the Euro folds here with such strong ensemble support. The ensemble wasn't really supporting the OP until last night, so it is a great sign to see many more members picking up on the possibility of accumulating snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 0z eps up to 2" for KAVL. Second time in a row the OP has given KAVL 5". I would be surprised if the Euro folds here with such strong ensemble support. The ensemble wasn't really supporting the OP until last night, so it is a great sign to see many more members picking up on the possibility of accumulating snowfall.what does it have for Franklin? My wxbell subscription ended last night.0z para Gfs was a big hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 what does it have for Franklin? My wxbell subscription ended last night. 0z para Gfs was a big hit. OP drops 5" in Franklin and the ensemble average has ticked up to just above 2". So pretty similar to Asheville. Para euro wasn't as robust this go round with precip, but still has snow for everyone in WNC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 OP drops 5" in Franklin and the ensemble average has ticked up to just above 2". So pretty similar to Asheville. Para euro wasn't as robust this go round with precip, but still has snow for everyone in WNC.thanks, that's almost identical to the 12z run from yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 12z nam shows some really good totals for the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 1, 2016 Author Share Posted March 1, 2016 Also looking at the teleconnections watch out for the middle part of March I think for some fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 the 18z Nam crushes Franklin & Sylva! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 the 18z Nam crushes Franklin & Sylva!I would cash out with the Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 I would cash out with the Nam. As would I. Then welcome spring in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Northern Mountains get screwed on the latest Nam. Big hit for the SW mountains however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 the 18z Nam crushes Franklin & Sylva!. How does toxaway look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 . How does toxaway look. Looks good to me .5 qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 GFS continues to waffle so punt it. Euro staying consistent on broad themes of mountain snow, at least the tracking. I'm not too concerned about the snow algorithm. Finally, perhaps most importantly, NAM remains at or south of desired track. No concerns. I continue to forecast accumulating snow in the High Country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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