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4th Annual Fall/Winter Thread for the Mountains/Foothills


Met1985

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Regret not trying harder to clear my calendar Thur/Friday last week. Ski areas did well with snow. Well the Euro is the model of second chances. GFS has been all over the place but the Euro and its Parallel have been consistent. First, Wednesday looks to end as snow for the ski areas and perhaps most of the High Country.

 

Euro/Para have not wavered from a surface low track south of the High Country Thursday night. 500 mb vort max remains safely south on Euro/Para. GFS is finally getting a clue after weekend waffling. Euro/Para has boundary layer a bit warm Valleys, but it is a snow event mountains. QPF is a bit south but we know snow will come out more/north than forecast.

 

And the 12Z Euro does just that! Itching for another chance.  :ski:

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think it was about the same, just a little more qpf.

Yeah more qpf and it was a few hours quicker with the snow also. 925mb temps at KAVL are frozen when the precip moves in on the 12z compared to +2 on the 0z euro. Qpf went from .3" of liquid to .6" of liquid from the 0z to 12z. I would love to see that type trend continue lol.
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Its really light on qpf, the 18z gfs came in colder with a decent hit. The eps mean bumped up to 2 inches here.

 

Yeah it was pretty light compared to the 12z operational euro.  It would be fine with me if it was a southern man special and I got 2" while you cashed in with 8".  I mean it is only fair since you kind of got the short end of the stick because of CAD on the last big snow.

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Yeah it was pretty light compared to the 12z operational euro. It would be fine with me if it was a southern man special and I got 2" while you cashed in with 8". I mean it is only fair since you kind of got the short end of the stick because of CAD on the last big snow.

its fine, hopefully we can all cash in with a nice 6-8. We had a couple 3 inch events when y'all got nothing. We also did ok with the long duration upslope events.
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0z eps up to 2" for KAVL. Second time in a row the OP has given KAVL 5". I would be surprised if the Euro folds here with such strong ensemble support. The ensemble wasn't really supporting the OP until last night, so it is a great sign to see many more members picking up on the possibility of accumulating snowfall.

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0z eps up to 2" for KAVL. Second time in a row the OP has given KAVL 5". I would be surprised if the Euro folds here with such strong ensemble support. The ensemble wasn't really supporting the OP until last night, so it is a great sign to see many more members picking up on the possibility of accumulating snowfall.

what does it have for Franklin? My wxbell subscription ended last night.

0z para Gfs was a big hit.

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what does it have for Franklin? My wxbell subscription ended last night.

0z para Gfs was a big hit.

OP drops 5" in Franklin and the ensemble average has ticked up to just above 2". So pretty similar to Asheville. Para euro wasn't as robust this go round with precip, but still has snow for everyone in WNC.

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OP drops 5" in Franklin and the ensemble average has ticked up to just above 2". So pretty similar to Asheville. Para euro wasn't as robust this go round with precip, but still has snow for everyone in WNC.

thanks, that's almost identical to the 12z run from yesterday.
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GFS continues to waffle so punt it. Euro staying consistent on broad themes of mountain snow, at least the tracking. I'm not too concerned about the snow algorithm. Finally, perhaps most importantly, NAM remains at or south of desired track. No concerns. I continue to forecast accumulating snow in the High Country.  :ski:

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