FlatLander48 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 -No cold air source as mentioned -No blocking -No signs of meaningful CAD -nothing to keep it from cutting Pretty much the only good thing is there's no lack of moisture... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Go read from pg 28-35 of this thread. No cold air, low cuts through TN Valley.. That is all that is posted. Point being, lets wait until Sunday night to say this will be a non-event. While I always respect your input, I think you're reaching too far for this one. It's not even close... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 While I always respect your input, I think you're reaching too far for this one. It's not even close...Are you going to jump back on now that the GFS is different? 50/50 low provides cold air from first wave and second wave is back to a costal solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Are you going to jump back on now that the GFS is different? 50/50 low provides cold air from first wave and second wave is back to a costal solution. No. I don't base my thinking on one model that has no consistency at this timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I'm not even saying it can't happen. I just think right now there's more going against the storm than for it. We'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K4CF Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Go read from pg 28-35 of this thread. No cold air, low cuts through TN Valley.. That is all that is posted. Point being, lets wait until Sunday night to say this will be a non-event. +1...Keep us updated Ward...I value your input on here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Two wave idea is putting this threat to bed. We needed either that initial wave to really ramp up so second one can dig but thats not happening. This was a much better looking setup with the idea of one wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 The only problem was even with the one wave, there was nothing to force the storm to have a favorable track. Even if it was one wave, it still probably would've probably been a apps runner with the best case scebario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 was hoping this would at least trend in our favor in the mtns. by now, at the very least get a backside thump when the storm gets by us and we're on the backside of it when the colder air wraps around it. Geeeeeezzzzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 The only problem was even with the one wave, there was nothing to force the storm to have a favorable track. Even if it was one wave, it still probably would've probably been a apps runner with the best case scebario. Models initial had a high pressure retreating but that is broken down now by wave one before it ever get going. That was where the cold was coming from, so not sure what you mean. Even the NWS mention it. This was a good look 2-3 days ago and all models were showing it. Still 4-5 days out so things could change. Most here can say no snow and be correct 95% without any analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Went for a hike on Roan yesterday, took a few pics to share with you guys. An don't worry gang, I have a feeling we go out with a bang this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Models still showing some decent wrap around moisture late Wednesday night into Thursday morning as 850mb temps crash. Could be a decent event for the higher elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Models still showing some decent wrap around moisture late Wednesday night into Thursday morning as 850mb temps crash. Could be a decent event for the higher elevations. how about a little for the valleys????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Well. I'm done. I'm ready to go golfing. Can we just cancel the rest of winter? I need some warmth lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 I get back just in time to see it rain for 3 days. Whoopee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 I get back just in time to see it rain for 3 days. Whoopee.lol... It rained here Saturday and Sunday too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 How's the wrap around snow after the storm look? Can we squeeze out an inch or two ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 How's the wrap around snow after the storm look? Can we squeeze out an inch or two ?GFS looked really good..Showing some 3-6" amounts. Possibly one of the better NWF's of the year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 sure hope buncombe gets in on the wrap around, an inch would be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Winter Weather Advisory here for 2 to 4. Ray has me at 3 to 6. Could be a nice little event for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Power is out and trees are down everywhere. Easily 50+ mph gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Power is out and trees are down everywhere. Easily 50+ mph gusts. A lot reports coming out of your area. You guys must be getting rocked pretty well. Nothing of any note here with wind. Stay safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 24, 2016 Author Share Posted February 24, 2016 Lots of trees down across the county. Storms today, snow tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 NWS going with 2-4 for Boone through Friday morning. Could be a nice little event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 24, 2016 Author Share Posted February 24, 2016 NWS going with 2-4 for Boone through Friday morning. Could be a nice little eventI think so. I'm not so sure that this is going to be a true nw flow but someone is going to get hit pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Snow mixing in with rain in Graham County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Snow mixing in with rain in Graham Countysame here, probably all snow above 4000ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Not doing anything at the moment, but I have a long way to go for snow. It's only down to 39.2 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Not doing anything at the moment, but I have a long way to go for snow. It's only down to 39.2 here.lol.. Its 40 here cold must be working in from the southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Not doing anything at the moment, but I have a long way to go for snow. It's only down to 39.2 here.40° here and snowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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