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4th Annual Fall/Winter Thread for the Mountains/Foothills


Met1985

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Based on the observations of 4" at Beech, 4" at LeConte and snowfall amounts recorded in Maggie Valley, Waynesville, Balsam, Mt. Pisgah etc....plus the 0.3" precip totals that were observed in Haywood county downsloped from the Balsams....which I usually double to get the approximate ridge top total based on previous observations..minimum of 4" fell in the higher elevations of the Balsams with 6" quite possible so overall pleased on how it turned out.   

 

It did appear that the duration of the snow was shorter than expected when prevented boom totals but nevertheless one of the better quick hitting storms of the season.

I was actually quite surprised, when Ray says something like a dusting to 2 inches or whatever the amount, i'm always on the lesser end. But I managed to push out 2 inches so here it could have overperformed slightly. good quick storm. 

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Thanks guys! I have not taken it to Roan Mtn or Mt Mitchell...lets hope we get another wet snow this season and I'll see what I can do.

I also got some video of this sunrise that's pretty spectacular, may put together a video in the next day or two.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

you should head down this way and take it over the cullasaja River gorge and whitewater falls.
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I am really liking the way things are setting up next week. I just don't see this low cutting and the if it doesn't it looks like it will really ramp up. We are in a great spot here in WNC, I am liking what a lot of the EPS members were advertising.

I'd definitely like it if I lived in the mountains. Not sure about here. It may be a west of I-77 special. I'm all-in, anyways, though, because it's late February. We usually get sloppy seconds from WNC specials in the NW Piedmont, anyways, so I'll look forward to the sloppy inch on the front or the backend! :yikes:

Can we dial up this WNC special, though?

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I'd definitely like it if I lived in the mountains. Not sure about here. It may be a west of I-77 special. I'm all-in, anyways, though, because it's late February. We usually get sloppy seconds from WNC specials in the NW Piedmont, anyways, so I'll look forward to the sloppy inch on the front or the backend! :yikes:

Can we dial up this WNC special, though?

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I'll take it.
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I am really liking the way things are setting up next week.  I just don't see this low cutting and the if it doesn't it looks like it will really ramp up.  We are in a great spot here in WNC, I am liking what a lot of the EPS members were advertising. 

 

I guess I'm in the this will be a non-event camp.  Lack of cold air no matter what track the low follows.  The current huge early Spring thaw running amok all the way into my backyard here in Michigan is going to kill the meager snow pack over a large area making cold air at the surface further South even harder to come by. Having said that, on the backside, some nice upslope snows should follow for the normal spots especially if the low really gets cranking and tracks way West pulling a lot of moisture West of the mountains to be pulled back Southeast with the cold air.

 

Looking at year to date snowfall at the Ski resorts:

 

http://www.skisoutheast.com/snow-reports/

 

I see that Beech is up to 57".  A nice improvement but still will likely fall short of their average of 90"..or the Ray's Weather prediction of 110"..or other's 200% of average or 180". (Note: Beech snowfall measures are not taken at the top of the mountain.  I estimate it probably snows 10 to 20" more per season at the summit than it does in the town at Beech.)

 

Perhaps a deep late season upper level low will make up the difference for the mountains?

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I guess I'm in the this will be a non-event camp. Lack of cold air no matter what track the low follows. The current huge early Spring thaw running amok all the way into my backyard here in Michigan is going to kill the meager snow pack over a large area making cold air at the surface further South even harder to come by. Having said that, on the backside, some nice upslope snows should follow for the normal spots especially if the low really gets cranking and tracks way West pulling a lot of moisture West of the mountains to be pulled back Southeast with the cold air.

Looking at year to date snowfall at the Ski resorts:

http://www.skisoutheast.com/snow-reports/

I see that Beech is up to 57". A nice improvement but still will likely fall short of their average of 90"..or the Ray's Weather prediction of 110"..or other's 200% of average or 180". (Note: Beech snowfall measures are not taken at the top of the mountain. I estimate it probably snows 10 to 20" more per season at the summit than it does in the town at Beech.)

Perhaps a deep late season upper level low will make up the difference for the mountains?

12z Para Euro still says this one will be a very close call. Column is very close to frozen aloft when the main batch of precip moves over KAVL. Also the Para develops a meso high on the NC/VA border that helps keep that column cold. It is a much closer call then you are alluding to.

As far as mountain snowfall, it looks like it isn't so far fetched for places to reach average now. 30" at Beech with a month and a half left to go is not crazy. Sugar is also around 20" off from their avg now, so that is certainly within reach.

I recall back before the last large storm a few saying that things didn't look good for snow until Feb. And we all know how that turned out. Lets just see how this plays out instead of jumping ship 5 days out again.

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It's not there. I just don't believe we can get a good hit. I hope I'm wrong but I see nothing that can sway my opinion.

Go read from pg 28-35 of this thread. No cold air, low cuts through TN Valley.. That is all that is posted. Point being, lets wait until Sunday night to say this will be a non-event.

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12z Para Euro still says this one will be a very close call. Column is very close to frozen aloft when the main batch of precip moves over KAVL. Also the Para develops a meso high on the NC/VA border that helps keep that column cold. It is a much closer call then you are alluding to.

As far as mountain snowfall, it looks like it isn't so far fetched for places to reach average now. 30" at Beech with a month and a half left to go is not crazy. Sugar is also around 20" off from their avg now, so that is certainly within reach.

I recall back before the last large storm a few saying that things didn't look good for snow until Feb. And we all know how that turned out. Lets just see how this plays out instead of jumping ship 5 days out again.

 

Well, the GFS shows the freezing level at a nose bleed level of 700mb!! More likely, the actual thermal fields will fall in between the GFS and the Euro yielding a non-snow event. Yes there is still time for the solutions to change but still leaves the problem of the lack of a cold air source. (FYI-It was 89 degrees in Garden City, Kansas yesterday. It will likely hit 60 degrees in parts of Michigan today! Cold air is only going to return/recover slowly especially with loss of snow pack.)

 

You might recall I mentioned that I gave it about a 50% chance of a major storm in the month of January. If you subtract out the totals from just that one storm, this season to date would have been more or less a near complete bust for many areas.

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