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4th Annual Fall/Winter Thread for the Mountains/Foothills


Met1985

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Worst ice storm in ten years. Almost half an inch of ice, temp stayed at 31 till 8:30 this morning. I lost power at 3a.m, woke up to a big KABOOM!!! transformer blew right beside my window, green sparks flew everywhere. 226,221 and I-40 were all shut down last night due to stranded motorists and wreck. I-40 looked like a parking lot, several shelters had to open. I woke up at midnight before the transformer blew to thunder and lightning. Crazy storm to say the least.

 

Nice it took until about 5am to lose power here. Crazy how fast they worked to turn it back on for us.

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Looks good on radar. Hopefully it'll hang together and gives us a surprise. 

 

No snow this morning but temps have been dropping since about 3 am. Down to 26.9 now. Can't believe how long that CAD is hanging on in the foothills and northern piedmont. Just proves once again that the models, always, scours it out too soon.

I hope the valleys get an inch or two 

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Worst ice storm in ten years. Almost half an inch of ice, temp stayed at 31 till 8:30 this morning. I lost power at 3a.m, woke up to a big KABOOM!!! transformer blew right beside my window, green sparks flew everywhere. 226,221 and I-40 were all shut down last night due to stranded motorists and wreck. I-40 looked like a parking lot, several shelters had to open. I woke up at midnight before the transformer blew to thunder and lightning. Crazy storm to say the least.

Lol enjoy man.
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Yeah guys I like the SW component to this one.  Here is my map..  I hope everyone sees some flakes!

 

12717480_1669943609942872_55705244862172

 

As always, thank you for your forecast map. Of course...I do have some comments about it! :)

 

Your depiction of snowfall in the Balsams is very likely to be underdone or otherwise not depicted well in a relative sense.   It will be an all snow event with some of the highest QPF totals located there due to the orographics so puzzled by your forecast depiction of the Balsams.  Don't know of any particular reason in this setup why the Southern Balsams would get 3 to 6" while central balsams and Northern Balsams get 1 to 3"?(It is a given that the  small area around Balsam gap will get less but that covers a very small area.) SW wind flow favors the Plott Balsams...in addition the overall track of the storm would also tend to maximize totals in the Balsams.  35 to 40 knots SW winds that will coincide with the precip will generate enhancement there.  The same type of wind flow tends to cause snow shadowing in parts of Hayward County...you can see this shown on the some of the Hi-res radar simulations...some of the same areas that you show for some enhanced snow.  This is a VERY important local mechanism for precip generation and is the main reason why the Balsams average about 50% more precip than the Valley areas.  Your map doesn't depict this mechanism at all save perhaps for the Southern Balsams which actually are much more prone to SE or S wind enhancement than SW wind enhancement.

 

IMO, the NWS map does a much better job depicting the Balsams but again is probably underplaying the accumulation for the higher elevations.  Overall, using the coarse grid that you use makes it very difficult to do a good job at showing the crazy quilt patterns generated by the terrain in NC. I know it won't be easy..but consider using the same type of map the NWS uses but with your own forecast depiction.

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Sure temps won't be a problem ? Getting awful warm today.

The Hi-Res snow maps really show an elevation dependence so the warm temps will be a problem but have to imagine that your elevation will be above the snowline.  With it being mostly at night, this might help the cause for the valley areas however. (Currently, it is the upper 20's along the ridge tops so will be no problem there.)

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As always, thank you for your forecast map. Of course...I do have some comments about it! :)

Your depiction of snowfall in the Balsams is very likely to be underdone. It will be an all snow event with some of the highest QPF totals located there due to the orographics so puzzled by your forecast depiction of the Balsams. Don't know of any particular reason in this setup why the Southern Balsams would get 3 to 6" while central balsams and Northern Balsams get 1 to 3"?(It is a given that the small area around Balsam gap will get less but that covers a very small area.) SW wind flow favors the Plott Balsams...in addition the overall track of the storm would also tend to maximize totals in the Balsams. 35 to 40 knots SW winds that will coincide with the precip will generate enhancement there. The same type of wind flow tends to cause snow shadowing in parts of Hayward County...you can see this shown on the some of the Hi-res radar simulations...some of the same areas that you show for some enhanced snow. This is a VERY important local mechanism for precip generation and is the main reason why the Balsams average about 50% more precip than the Valley areas. Your map doesn't depict this mechanisms at all save perhaps for the Southern Balsams which actually are much more prone to SE or S wind enhancement than SW wind enhancement.

IMO, the NWS map does a much better job depicting the Balsams but again is probably underplaying the accumulation for the higher elevations. Overall, using the coarse grid that you use makes it very difficult to do a good job at showing the crazy quilt patterns generated by the terrain in NC. I know it won't be easy..but consider using the same type of map the NWS uses but with your own forecast depiction.

Yeah man I use this program called snagit and I am sure the NWS has something much more expensive/better. My depictions are all hand drawn and I am still nailing down my knowledge so cut me a little slack. I don't generate any profit from my site so it is hard to justify spending any more money then I already have. Thanks for the insight though man, I appreciate it!

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Yeah man I use this program called snagit and I am sure the NWS has something much more expensive/better. My depictions are all hand drawn and I am still nailing down my knowledge so cut me a little slack. I don't generate any profit from my site so it is hard to justify spending any more money then I already have. Thanks for the insight though man, I appreciate it!

 

Your welcome..and yes I know that NWS guys have a funding advantage over you! :) However, don't let that get you down...the best meteorological minds are not working for the government to be sure..and you can be much more flexible, take risks, react to changes faster and use your local knowledge to beat their forecast.  Do that a few times, and your following will increase. Soon the ad revenues will pour in and you can delegate the task to some grad student while you are on a beach in the S. Pacific enjoying life! :)

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Snow already falling in the Smoky Mtns.  You can see the big curtains of snow falling then evaporating into the dry air in the Valleys as this camera points towards Clingman's Dome towards the NE.

 

http://www.nature.nps.gov/air/webcams/parks/grsmcam/grsmcam.cfm

 

And now further East..just reached the top of Mt Lyn Lowry about 3:10 PM.

 

http://www.saunookweather.com/wxwebcam.php

 

Looks like the snow level is probably 5800 to 6000 feet up at the moment.

 

Radar suggests heavy snow to commence by 3:45 PM.

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Snow already falling in the Smoky Mtns. You can see the big curtains of snow falling then evaporating into the dry air in the Valleys as this camera points towards Clingman's Dome towards the NE.

http://www.nature.nps.gov/air/webcams/parks/grsmcam/grsmcam.cfm

And now further East..just reached the top of Mt Lyn Lowry about 3:10 PM.

http://www.saunookweather.com/wxwebcam.php

Looks like the snow level is probably 5800 to 6000 feet up at the moment.

Radar suggests heavy snow to commence by 3:45 PM.

Good stuff Mike. That snow line should start to drop pretty quickly.
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