HurricaneTracker Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 what a dud of a storm for Buncombe County, 6 on Monday morning and not a flake of snow and I thought we would at least get an inch out of this storm, started out 1-3 hell I'd take 1/2 inch now. Saturday's surprise snow was a lot more than this. why is it sometimes so cold and dry here where as up north you never hear about to dry to snow, they get a low pressure and as long as its cold it snows with no problem. FRUSTRATED As I said yesterday, Buncombe and points south of I-40 would see a dusting of snow at best. So far that is working out. Much bigger concern is the flash flood potential late this evening as the main cold front moves through. HRRR suggesting quite an impressive band of rain with that after 9pm. In fact, HRRR says we could be totally dry until then! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 As I said yesterday, Buncombe and points south of I-40 would see a dusting of snow at best. So far that is working out. Much bigger concern is the flash flood potential late this evening as the main cold front moves through. HRRR suggesting quite an impressive band of rain with that after 9pm. In fact, HRRR says we could be totally dry until then! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Leaning towards dry till. My local county already called the day off. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Blown call by me big time on this one. Congrats to HT and blue, you guys nailed it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 BY far biggest flakes of the season. I'll actually get the forecasted snow if it keeps going like this for 2 hours or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 BY far biggest flakes of the season. I'll actually get the forecasted snow if it keeps going like this for 2 hours or so.Same here. How much do you have? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Blown call by me big time on this one. Congrats to HT and blue, you guys nailed it It ain't over yet. WWA goes until midnight now. But I do think the wedge is gone long before the actual precip arrives. Probably toughest forecast in the last 12 months! You did score the snow in VA and northern NC. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Same here. How much do you have? Haven't measured since 6 when I had just over 4, but I'm guessing we just crossed the 5 inch mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Temp- 3.2 below for the month Precip- .55 above for the month. I have had a little more, but the airport officially has 1/10 of an inch of snow for February. Below freezing since Friday.... rain on the way. Thank goodness for the 14 inches of snow in January ! ... and don't worry about your call hvward, everybody misses in the weather game. ... and I appreciate the humble way HT offers a differing opinion. Very nice. I wish the rest of the board was like this (sub) sub-forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Sorry a lot of you are missing out in the Asheville area and southern mountains! The northern mountains still got a decent accumulation and up here on the NC/VA state line we have about 2.5 and now heavy sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Same here. How much do you have? Up to 6.5 inches already. Flakes getting bigger as the morning is going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Just measured 4 here as well. Weird how it wasn't temps that foiled Asheville but instead no precip. I thought it may have been the other way around. I was on the southern end of it myself but just north enough to score. Temps will be an issue for me here on out. I'm up to 28.5 and rising. I can't believe Waynesville is all ready up to 40. Hang in there guys, still quite a bit of winter left. Still time for one more big dog to roll through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Up to 6.5 inches already. Flakes getting bigger as the morning is going on.Wow congrats! It just stopped in Boone. Guessing we have 4 or 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Wow congrats! It just stopped in Boone. Guessing we have 4 or 5 Yea its still pouring here. First time this season were gonna meet or exceed forecasts. Fallen short every other time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 And just like that, it's all sleet. Bout to get interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 I was rocking the web cam for your downtown a while back. Great rates. The 850's are creeping out for you. IP time And just like that, it's all sleet. Bout to get interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Only wound up with 2" here in Boone near the Honda Dealership. Quite surprising given some of the rates we had yesterday evening and last night. Looks to be mostly rain from here on out as temp is 32 and rising. So much for the 5-10" predicted by NWS Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Only wound up with 2" here in Boone near the Honda Dealership. Quite surprising given some of the rates we had yesterday evening and last night. Looks to be mostly rain from here on out as temp is 32 and rising. So much for the 5-10" predicted by NWS Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Better than nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Warm air screaming in here now. Wish the precip would've lasted a bit longer. I should be above freezing within the hour. Now bring on the rain. This county needs a bath. After all the salt and slag they had to use over the last several weeks it looks like you're driving on dirt roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMulkey Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Still 25 degrees at my house, a couple miles west of Blowing Rock. Meanwhile it's in the mid-30s in Foscoe and Seven Devils, both of which I can literally see from my house when it's not fogged in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K4CF Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 41o and light rain here and yet 10 miles SE of me, Spruce Pine is a chilly 25o with freezing drizzle Got 3" of snow out of this since yesterday afternoon but it's melting fast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 unca is currently projected to make the tournament. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 KGSP Afternoon AFD Update .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 240 PM...COMPLICATED WEATHER SCENARIO CONTINUES ACROSS THE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON. WARM TEMPS HAVE SURGED INTO THE WESTERN NC MOUNTAINS A LITTLE AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. THEREFORE...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WEST OF THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY... WILL CANCEL THE ADVISORY FOR ADDITIONAL COUNTIES...WITH ONLY RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL NOT ADJUST THE ADVISORY ALONG THE SOUTHERN CWFA BORDER JUST YET AS WET BULB TEMPS REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THERE. HOWEVER...MANY OF THOSE LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS BY OR EVEN BEFORE EXPIRATION. THE I-85 CORRIDOR WILL BE TRICKIER HOWEVER...AS LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS TEMPS BELOW FREEZING THERE LONGER AS THEY ARE DEEPER INTO THE COLD AIR. MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY LATER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THOSE AREAS. DESPITE THE LARGE WARM NOSE SEEN ON THE 18Z OBSERVED GSO RAOB... SLEET AND EVEN SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS OVER THE FOOTHILLS. STILL...EXPECT THE BULK OF THE WINTRY PRECIP FROM NOW ON SHUD BE MAINLY FREEZING RAIN. THESE AREAS ALSO HAVE A LATER PRODUCT EXPIRATION TIME...IN LINE WITH LATER WARMING. WILL BUNCOMBE COUNTY AND THE NORTHERN NC MOUNTAINS IN THEIR RESPECTIVE PRODUCTS AS THERE IS QUITE A GRADIENT ACROSS THOSE AREAS...WITH WESTERN/NORTHERN PORTIONS ABOVE FREEZING...BUT EASTERN/SOUTHERN PORTIONS STILL BELOW FREEZING WITH WINTRY PRECIP. ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGH ELEVATIONS TONIGHT...THEY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL EXCEPT FOR LOCATIONS ABOVE 5000 FEET. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTY WINDS OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT...BUT SHUD REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL AS WELL. PRECIP SHUD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AS A SHORT WAVE AND UPPER JET FUELED DIVERGENCE MOVE OVER. LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL STRENGTHEN AS WELL. ALTHOUGH RAIN RATES INTENSIFY...WARMING KICKS IN AS WELL. THE WARMING SHUD KEEP MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE WARNING FROM SEEING MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCRETION...BUT THE NW PIEDMONT AND SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS COULD APPROACH 2 TENTHS OF AN INCH. AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF REACHING A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE...SO THE WARNING REMAINS WELL PLACED. A DRY SLOT MOVES IN OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE AND UPPER JET. THIS WILL BRING A QUICK END TO PRECIP FROM SW TO NE OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS BY TUE MORNING. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING PRECIP THRU THE MORNING OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THIS WILL MOSTLY BE RAIN...WITH LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NW DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES...ESPECIALLY TO THE MOUNTAINS. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WARM TEMPS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE RAIN... POSSIBLY CHANGING TO SNOW AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH ONLY VERY LIGHT ACCUMS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE DAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Blown call by me big time on this one. Congrats to HT and blue, you guys nailed it No one did worse than me Ward! Your calls are right more than they're wrong. Not really relevant to this thread but we have some nasty storms out west rolling our way! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Dare I say "That's a wrap for this storm?" Main long term thread talking about miller A's and stuff already. At this point, I'm gonna say keep dreaming. No way we see a miller A with the positive NAO. Needless to say for me this event was a good one. Got over half a foot of snow with some dreamy snowflakes/ rates earlier. now I get to watch it wash away before morning. Won't complain with that. And get clean roads for the first time since the middle of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 wish we could of had this precip. yesterday or last night with the cold temps. same old, moisture arrives and it warms up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Dare I say "That's a wrap?" Main long term thread talking about miller A's and stuff already. At this point, I'm gonna say keep dreaming. Needless to say for me this event was a good one. Got over half a foot of snow with some dreamy snowflakes/ rates earlier. now I get to watch it wash away before morning. Won't complain with that. And get clean roads for the first time since the middle of January. How much snowfall do you have on the season? I would slow down thinking winter is a wrap, especially with your location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Thanks Don! Too many big dog signals on the 12z EPS to call it quits right now. Franklin and Super J mentioned it in the other thread but the EPS looks pretty good day 8-10. I was looking at a few members and there is a solid high pressure to feed cold moisture showing up to aid a wrapped up miller A. This would be perfect for WNC. The EPS also had some big dog with this storm 10 days ago so bear that in mind. But no reason to call it quits in the middle of Feb. We live in the mountains guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K4CF Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Hey Ward...What are your thoughts about any upslope potential in the morning or the wave coming through tomorrow evening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 850s in action with WAA on Beech Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Wow, 34 MPH S wind! It's always crazy when it's almost 10 degrees colder here than Beech! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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