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4th Annual Fall/Winter Thread for the Mountains/Foothills


Met1985

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Awful quite around here with a potentially significant winter storm coming through. I honestly don't believe the Euro, I'll take the middle road. Woodlawn I'm afraid we're in for it!!! Hunker down my freind!

I'm growing more and more concerned that the cold air will be trapped here and up the Lee of the apps for longer than many models show. Going to put up the mustang tomorrow after church and get the Subaru ready to go out!

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Nice wrap to a superb winter day

A lot of God's handiwork on display on a classic winter day

 

 

Nice picture Bill.I had a niece that was married in that church.

 

Well, I got the dreaded 33 and wintry mix forecast for Monday. Then I looked up at the weather station it says IT'S 5 DEGREES !!! This storm must be coming from a desert. If this thing would've been a good hit, I might say thanks and call it a winter. 

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Hey all,

I'm not feeling this one, especially for Buncombe county and all areas south and west. It looks to me like northern mountains will do quite a bit better, say something close to what Ward put out in his map.

But for the other areas, most models keep the initial slug of snow just too far north for anything meaningful. For Asheville, I think a dusting of snow, a trace of ice, and lots of rain. This should be the case too for areas like Franklin, WCU, Brevard, Hendersonville, Lake Lure, etc. The system appears to track west of the Apps, and wedges always erode from the edge first...meaning the southern and southwestern counties go to rain before places like Mt. Airy or Winston. The waa is just too stout and the fast retreating nature of the parent high does not favor a long-lived winter event. Look at current obs in Missouri and how far north freezing rain is being reported.

I'm happy to revise this pending 12Z data. At this point, I expect nothing more than a Winter Weather Advisory for Buncombe, Haywood, and everyone else south of I-40.

Good luck with your map, Ward!

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

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Hey all,

I'm not feeling this one, especially for Buncombe county and all areas south and west. It looks to me like northern mountains will do quite a bit better, say something close to what Ward put out in his map.

But for the other areas, most models keep the initial slug of snow just too far north for anything meaningful. For Asheville, I think a dusting of snow, a trace of ice, and lots of rain. This should be the case too for areas like Franklin, WCU, Brevard, Hendersonville, Lake Lure, etc. The system appears to track west of the Apps, and wedges always erode from the edge first...meaning the southern and southwestern counties go to rain before places like Mt. Airy or Winston. The waa is just too stout and the fast retreating nature of the parent high does not favor a long-lived winter event. Look at current obs in Missouri and how far north freezing rain is being reported.

I'm happy to revise this pending 12Z data. At this point, I expect nothing more than a Winter Weather Advisory for Buncombe, Haywood, and everyone else south of I-40.

Good luck with your map, Ward!

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Good analysis. The trends are not in our favor.
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Thanks HT and I agree, my confidence in that map is low. 925mb temps look to hold strong over Henderson Co. Until 6-7am tomorrow but then that warm nose finally turns everything to rain. My map was predicated on thoughts that precip could begin earlier then expect, but who knows. This one has high bust potential written all over it.

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I was just getting ready to post that I have a very fine flurry now. Almost a diamond dust look.

Nice Joe! This is what I was hoping for. If we can get DP's up, I think these will make it into the valley. The key for everyone here to get snow is to have moisture reach the ground before 3-4am tomorrow morning.

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Nice Joe! This is what I was hoping for. If we can get DP's up, I think these will make it into the valley. The key for everyone here to get snow is to have moisture reach the ground before 3-4am tomorrow morning.

 

 

Ward, I have bonafide light snow now with a temp of 17.2. Didn't expect snow this early.

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