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4th Annual Fall/Winter Thread for the Mountains/Foothills

Met1985

By Met1985,
in Southeastern States

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Moonhowl

Moonhowl

Posted
Posted

GSP discussion this afternoon is amusing:

 

AS OF 245 PM EST FRIDAY...THE SHORT TERM IS A MESS...BUT I
SUPPOSE MOST USERS WANT MORE INFORMATION THAN JUST THAT.

 

...MEANWHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED MESS GETS GEARED UP OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN...WITH A
SECONDARY WAVE DIPPING INTO THE PLAINS OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT...WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND
TRIES TO DAM DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD IN A VERY PROGRESSIVE
HYBRID CAD. DEFINITELY SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE AS BY THE TIME THE
PRECIPITATION STARTS TO OVERSPREAD OUR FORECAST AREA...THE PARENT
HIGH IS OFFSHORE THEREBY NO LONGER SUPPLYING A SOURCE OF GOOD LOW
LEVEL CAA...BUT EVAPORATIONAL COOLING INTO THE COLD AND DRY SURFACE
LAYER MAY HELP TO CREATE A BIT OF INSITU DAMMING. A LOT WILL DEPEND
ON WHERE EXACTLY THE DEWPOINTS ARE AT PRECIPITATION /VIRGA/ ONSET.

ADDITIONALLY...AS IF TAKING DIABATIC PROCESSES INTO ACCOUNT ISN`T
DIFFICULT ENOUGH...THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINLY ON
LOCATION OF THE SURFACE LOW. 12Z GFS HAS SHIFTED FARTHER SOUTH
/SAY FROM AUGUSTA TO RALEIGH/...WHICH WOULD NATURALLY RESULT IN
GREATER CHANCES FOR WINTRY PRECIP. HOWEVER...THE NEW 12Z ECMWF
TAKES THE SURFACE LOW ON THE NW SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS...WHICH
WOULD CUT OFF ANY WINTRY POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF OUR AREA BY MIDDAY
MONDAY. WPC GUIDANCE SUGGESTED STICKING WITH THE 12Z ECMWF/00Z
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN POSITION...WHICH IS ALL WELL AND GOOD EXCEPT
THOSE DATA ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOR US TO USE OPERATIONALLY. TRIED
TO TAKE A BLEND OF THE OPERATIONAL 12Z GFS AND ECMWF...BUT AGAIN
ECMWF DATA ARE LIMITED...SO IN THE END OUR FORECAST IS PROBABLY
ON THE COOL /AND PESSIMISTIC/ SIDE OF GUIDANCE. AS AN EXAMPLE
HOWEVER...TAKING THE RAW GFS VS. ECMWF...THE DIFFERENCES IN HIGH
TEMPS MONDAY FOR GSP ARE 33 VS 39 RESPECTIVELY...AND FOR CLT IT
IS WORSE WITH 34 VS. 46 RESPECTIVELY.

SO WHAT WE HAVE AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES IS A VERY COLD COLUMN
AND WHEN PRECIPITATION BEGINS...IT WILL BEGIN AS ALL SNOW. AS THE
SURFACE LOW APPROACHES...WHILE SURFACE WINDS REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY
IN RESPONSE TO THE INSITU DAMMING...WINDS ALOFT WILL PICK UP OUT OF
THE SOUTH AND WAA ATOP THE COLD DOME WILL INSTIGATE A CHANGEOVER
FROM SNOW TO SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. PROBABLY
ALL RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT MAYBE THE MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHERN TIER...BY MONDAY EVENING. I CANNOT EMPHASIZE ENOUGH THAT
CONFIDENCE IS --VERY-- LOW ON ACTUAL TEMPERATURES AND THUS PTYPE
TRANSITION...AND THUS SNOW AND ICE ACCUMS. BUT SPEAKING OF THE
LATTER...CURRENTLY OUR GRIDS HAVE FROM A TRACE SNOW ACROSS THE
UPSTATE TO 3-4 INCHES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM /12Z TUESDAY...MORE SNOW WITH WRAPAROUND PRECIP AS WE
TRANSITION INTO THE EXTENDED/...WITH TRACE ICE ACROSS THE UPSTATE
TO A MAX OF AROUND 1/4 INCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THIS
ACTUALLY LINES UP PRETTY WELL WITH WPC GUIDANCE FOR NOW...BUT
I WILL REEMPHASIZE ONCE AGAIN THAT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND THERE
IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ESPECIALLY ON SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE /BIG SURPRISE/ IS ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS.

 

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ncjoaquin

ncjoaquin

Posted
Posted

Jason at WLOS just put up a snowfall map for the storm Monday calling for 4 to 8+ in the northern mtns with 3 to 6 elsewhere. Had Asheville in the 1 to 3 range. Pretty brave putting out a map this early. I'll post it as soon as it's up on there web page.

I saw that. I thought it was oddly specific, and the range really seemed extreme.

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nchighcountrywx

nchighcountrywx

Posted
Posted

Avery County NAM Sounding

Monday 15FEB16 18z 1:00pm

 

Courtesy of Wright-Weather

 

1xtrOZe.gif

Date: 3 day NAM valid 18Z MON 15 FEB 16
Station: 36.107092,-81.824112
Latitude:   36.11
Longitude: -81.82
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  0 1000   151                                                                 
  1  975   352                                                                 
  2  950   560                                                                 
SFC  944   610  -0.8  -2.6  88  1.8  -1.6 118   6 276.8 277.4 274.6 286.0  3.34
  4  925   772  -2.2                      125  10 277.1                        
  5  900   990  -0.6  -1.3  95  0.7  -0.9 160  22 280.9 281.5 277.5 291.7  3.87
  6  875  1216   1.0                      179  36 284.8                        
  7  850  1450   2.0   0.4  89  1.7   1.3 189  44 288.3 289.1 282.0 301.5  4.62
  8  825  1691   1.4                      193  46 290.1                        
  9  800  1938   0.5  -0.3  94  0.9   0.1 194  46 291.7 292.6 283.5 305.3  4.67
 10  775  2193  -0.6                      195  47 293.2                        
 11  750  2454  -2.1  -2.6  97  0.5  -2.3 197  48 294.3 295.0 284.0 306.6  4.21
 12  725  2723  -3.5                      200  48 295.6                        
 13  700  2999  -5.1  -6.5  90  1.3  -5.7 202  47 296.8 297.4 284.1 306.9  3.37
 14  675  3284  -6.8                      202  45 298.1                        
 15  650  3578  -8.4 -11.6  78  3.2  -9.5 200  44 299.5 299.9 284.1 306.9  2.42
 16  625  3881 -10.2                      200  43 300.7                        
 17  600  4194 -12.3 -15.1  80  2.8 -13.2 200  42 301.9 302.2 284.6 308.1  1.98
 18  575  4518 -14.6                      204  43 302.8                        
 19  550  4853 -16.9 -19.5  80  2.6 -17.6 207  43 304.0 304.3 284.8 308.7  1.48
 20  525  5201 -19.1                      211  42 305.4                        
 21  500  5561 -22.0 -24.0  84  2.0 -22.5 213  43 306.2 306.4 285.2 309.8  1.10
 22  475  5936 -25.0                      215  44 307.1                        
 23  450  6327 -27.8 -30.2  80  2.4 -28.2 219  44 308.3 308.4 285.5 310.6  0.69
 24  425  6735 -30.9                      223  45 309.4                        
 25  400  7161 -34.2 -37.6  71  3.4 -34.6 225  45 310.6 310.6 286.0 311.9  0.38
 26  375  7609 -38.1                      226  45 311.2                        
 27  350  8079 -42.2 -46.4  64  4.2 -42.5 223  51 311.8 311.8 286.2 312.4  0.17
 28  325  8575 -46.7                      221  57 312.3                        
 29  300  9101 -51.6 -55.4  64  3.7 -51.7 219  64 312.6 312.6 286.4 312.8  0.07
 30  275  9659 -55.3                      221  68 315.1                        
 31  250 10263 -58.4 -64.5  46  6.1 -58.5 225  68 319.2 319.2 288.5 319.3  0.03
 32  225 10920 -59.3                      239  60 327.6                        
 33  200 11658 -59.2 -73.5  14 14.3 -59.3 259  53 339.0 339.0 294.1 339.1  0.01
 34  175 12497 -57.3                      259  47 355.3                        
 35  150 13477 -54.5 -83.1   2 28.6 -54.8 252  42 376.3 376.3 301.6 376.3  0.00
 36  125 14647 -53.9                      248  46 397.4                        
 37  100 16074 -55.5 -83.8   2 28.4 -56.0 252  39 420.6 420.6 307.8 420.6  0.00
 38   75 17894 -58.5                      257  35 450.2                        
 39   50 20449 -57.4                      255  13 508.3                        
TRP                                             0                              
WND                                             0                              

Sounding variables and indices
1000-500 mb thick:      5410.64 m
Freezing level:      Surface below freezing
Freezing level:          890.69 mb =  1074.10 m =  3523.92 ft
Freezing level:          788.10 mb =  2059.12 m =  6755.56 ft
Wetbulb zero:        Below ground
Sfc-500 mean rel hum:       nan %
Est. max temperature:     14.15 C =   57.46 F
Sfc-Lift cond lev (LCL): 918.31 mb =   829.55 m =  2721.59 ft T:   -1.76 C
700-500 lapse rate:        6.60 C/km
Conv cond level (CCL):   944.03 mb =   610.04 m =  2001.42 ft
  Mean mixing ratio:       4.00 g/kg
  Conv temperature:       -0.19 C =   31.66 F
Cap Strength:             11.54 C
Lifted Index:             11.69 C Risk: None
Lifted Index @300 mb:     13.68 C
Lifted Index @700 mb:      8.33 C
Showalter Index:           5.89 C Risk: None
Total Totals Index:       46.49 C Risk: Scattered moderate thunderstorms
  Vertical Totals Index:  24.08 C
  Cross Totals Index:     22.41 C
K Index:                  23.12   Risk: 20-40 % chance of thunderstorms
Sweat Index:             213.03   Risk: None
Energy Index:              1.70   Risk: None

Parcel Indices
Parcel: using surface
CAPE (B+):                 0.00 J/kg
Max Up Vert Vel:           0.00 m/s
Conv Inhibition (B-):  30520.54 J/kg
Cap Strength:             17.12 C
Lift Cond Lev (LCL):     918.31 mb =   829.55 m =  2721.59 ft
Lev Free Conv (LFC):      -1.00 mb = -9999.00 m = -9999.00 ft

Wind level data
   Storm motion: 232 at  31 knt
----------------------------------------------------------
                   TRUE/GROUND REL   |     STORM REL
 LEV   P    H    DIR SPD   U     V   | DIR SPD   U     V
       mb   m        knt     m/s     |     knt     m/s
----------------------------------------------------------
  0  1000   151                     
  1   975   352                     
  2   950   560                     
  3   944   610  118   6  -5.4   2.8 |  61  34 -30.2 -16.5 
  4   925   772  125  10  -8.3   5.9 |  68  36 -33.1 -13.4 
  5   900   990  160  22  -7.5  20.5 |  92  32 -32.3   1.2 
  6   875  1216  179  36  -0.5  36.1 | 124  30 -25.3  16.8 
  7   850  1450  189  44   7.0  43.9 | 144  30 -17.7  24.6 
  8   825  1691  193  46  10.3  44.4 | 150  29 -14.4  25.2 
  9   800  1938  194  46  11.3  44.5 | 152  29 -13.5  25.2 
 10   775  2193  195  47  12.3  45.5 | 154  29 -12.5  26.2 
 11   750  2454  197  48  14.3  46.1 | 159  29 -10.5  26.9 
 12   725  2723  200  48  16.6  45.4 | 163  27  -8.2  26.1 
 13   700  2999  202  47  17.7  43.9 | 164  26  -7.1  24.6 
 14   675  3284  202  45  16.9  42.2 | 161  24  -7.8  22.9 
 15   650  3578  200  44  15.0  41.3 | 156  24  -9.7  22.0 
 16   625  3881  200  43  14.6  40.1 | 154  23 -10.2  20.8 
 17   600  4194  200  42  14.8  39.6 | 154  23 -10.0  20.3 
 18   575  4518  204  43  17.3  39.4 | 160  21  -7.5  20.1 
 19   550  4853  207  43  19.6  37.7 | 164  19  -5.2  18.4 
 20   525  5201  211  42  21.7  36.3 | 170  17  -3.1  17.0 
 21   500  5561  213  43  23.8  36.0 | 177  17  -1.0  16.7 
 22   475  5936  215  44  25.5  36.0 | 183  17   0.8  16.7 
 23   450  6327  219  44  27.9  34.5 | 192  16   3.1  15.3 
 24   425  6735  223  45  30.4  33.2 | 202  15   5.7  13.9 
 25   400  7161  225  45  32.1  31.9 | 210  15   7.3  12.6 
 26   375  7609  226  45  32.3  30.8 | 213  14   7.5  11.5 
 27   350  8079  223  51  34.7  37.4 | 209  21  10.0  18.1 
 28   325  8575  221  57  37.7  42.8 | 209  27  12.9  23.5 
 29   300  9101  219  64  40.4  49.9 | 207  34  15.6  30.7 
 30   275  9659  221  68  44.8  51.3 | 212  38  20.0  32.0 
 31   250 10263  225  68  48.3  47.5 | 220  37  23.5  28.3 
 32   225 10920  239  60  51.3  30.5 | 247  29  26.5  11.2 
 33   200 11658  259  53  51.7  10.0 | 289  29  26.9  -9.3 
 34   175 12497  259  47  46.0   9.0 | 296  24  21.2 -10.2 
 35   150 13477  252  42  40.4  12.8 | 293  17  15.6  -6.5 
 36   125 14647  248  46  42.8  17.6 | 275  18  18.1  -1.7 
 37   100 16074  252  39  37.0  12.2 | 300  14  12.2  -7.1 
 38    75 17894  257  35  33.9   7.9 | 321  15   9.1 -11.4 
 39    50 20449  255  13  12.2   3.2 |  38  20 -12.6 -16.0 

Wind Parameters
Mean winds (0-6000m):            202.1 at   41.9 knts
Storm direction:                 232.1 at   31.4 knts
Shear (0-3000m)              pos:    8.0 neg:    0.6 tot:    8.5 10-3/s
Storm rel Dir Shear (0-3000m):      94.5 deg
Storm rel helicity (0-3000m) pos:  473.9 neg:  -22.0 tot:  451.9 m^2/s^2
                             ave:  150.6 10^-3 m/s^2 rel:   0.84
Storm rel vorticity (0-3000m) horiz:   10.9 stream:    9.1 10^-3/s
Energy-Hel index:          0.00
Bulk Rich Number:          0.00
Bulk Shear:              154.86 m/s

Storm Parameters
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Depth  Mean    Inflow|    Shear      |           Helicity           | Vorticity
 AGL  Dir Spd Dir Spd|  Pos  Neg  Tot|  Pos   Neg   Tot   Ave   Rel |  Hor Strm
  m       knt     knt|     10^-3/s   |       m^2/s^2     m/s^2      | 10^-3/s
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 500  151  16  80  33| 26.9  0.0 26.9|243.8   0.0 243.8  487.6  0.97| 29.0 28.2
1000  176  28 108  28| 22.6  0.0 22.6|414.7   0.0 414.7  414.7  0.98| 25.5 25.1
1500  184  34 123  26| 15.7  0.0 15.7|436.1   0.0 436.1  290.7  0.98| 18.1 17.7
2000  188  37 132  26| 12.3  0.0 12.3|463.8   0.0 463.8  231.9  0.97| 14.6 14.2
2500  192  39 139  26|  9.6  0.0  9.6|473.9  -2.8 471.1  188.4  0.93| 12.4 11.6
3000  193  40 142  25|  8.0  0.6  8.5|473.9 -22.0 451.9  150.6  0.84| 10.9  9.1
4000  196  41 146  25|  5.9  0.4  6.3|489.4 -27.2 462.2  115.5  0.80|  8.8  7.1
5000  199  41 150  23|  4.9  0.3  5.2|514.4 -27.2 487.2   97.4  0.80|  7.8  6.2
6000  202  42 155  21|  4.3  0.3  4.6|539.8 -27.2 512.5   85.4  0.81|  7.0  5.7
Wrote GIF file: /weather/ldm/data/temp/10923793872735.gif
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nchighcountrywx

nchighcountrywx

Posted
Posted

 

 

Avery County NAM Sounding

Monday 15FEB16 18z 1:00pm

Bill, excuse my stupidity, but this looks decent. Correct? I never could read soundings worth a crap. 

 

 

 

It's dicey as it has a 35 degree warm nose on the standard NAM off the surface at 1pm Monday.

 

That was the NAM so I can't get the resolution exactly on the elevation of 4600'.

 

I will try the NAM-WRF 4km as it should be more granular.

 

The Standard NAM offsets 

 

Station: 36.107092,-81.824112

To

Latitude: 36.11

Longitude: -81.82

 

The NAM 4K only goes out to 60 hours, so if comparing NAM4k to NAM at 60 hours, the NAM4K is considerably colder. 

 

This one will be a close and fun one to watch Sunday evening as the event approaches.

 

Also the GFS is even colder.

 

6iy2nCz.gif

Date: 3 day GFS valid 18Z MON 15 FEB 16
Station: 36.110767,-81.809950
Latitude:   36.11
Longitude: -81.81
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  0 1000   174                                                                 
  1  950   587                                                                 
SFC  922   826  -1.0  -1.5  96  0.5  -1.2 150   3 278.6 279.2 276.0 288.8  3.71
  3  900  1019  -1.2  -1.4  99  0.2  -1.3 189  10 280.3 280.9 277.2 291.0  3.84
  4  850  1475  -0.6  -1.0  97  0.5  -0.8 205  24 285.5 286.3 280.1 297.4  4.17
  5  800  1959  -1.7  -1.9  99  0.2  -1.8 218  37 289.3 290.0 281.8 301.3  4.15
  6  750  2472  -3.3  -3.5  99  0.2  -3.4 226  44 292.9 293.6 283.2 304.5  3.92
  7  700  3015  -6.1  -6.2  99  0.2  -6.1 231  43 295.8 296.4 283.8 306.0  3.42
  8  650  3592  -9.2  -9.3  99  0.1  -9.3 235  42 298.5 299.0 284.3 307.3  2.90
  9  600  4207 -12.8 -12.9  99  0.1 -12.8 237  42 301.3 301.8 284.8 308.7  2.37
 10  550  4866 -16.9 -17.0  99  0.1 -16.9 238  44 304.0 304.4 285.3 309.9  1.84
 11  500  5575 -21.8 -21.9 100  0.0 -21.8 239  47 306.4 306.6 285.6 310.7  1.33
 12  450  6341 -27.7 -27.7 100  0.0 -27.7 241  50 308.4 308.6 285.8 311.3  0.87
 13  400  7176 -34.6 -34.6 100 -0.0 -34.6 243  54 310.0 310.1 285.9 311.8  0.51
 14  350  8093 -42.4 -42.6  98  0.2 -42.5 247  59 311.5 311.6 286.2 312.4  0.26
 15  300  9113 -51.8 -51.9 100  0.0 -51.8 255  71 312.3 312.3 286.3 312.7  0.11
 16  250 10273 -58.2 -58.4  98  0.2 -58.2 258  85 319.5 319.5 288.6 319.7  0.06
 17  200 11676 -58.0 -67.4  29  9.4 -58.2 259  86 340.9 340.9 294.6 341.0  0.02
 18  150 13500 -55.6 -82.5   2 26.9 -55.9 260  67 374.3 374.3 301.3 374.3  0.00
 19  100 16073 -56.7 -84.2   2 27.6 -57.1 269  48 418.2 418.2 307.5 418.3  0.00
 20   50 20443 -57.0 -84.5   2 27.5 -57.8 283  19 509.2 509.2 315.6 509.2  0.01
TRP                                             0                              
WND                                             0                              
P: 922.0 H:    826 T:   -1.0 Td:   -1.5 Dir:   150 Spd:     3

Sounding variables and indices
1000-500 mb thick:      5401.20 m
Freezing level:      Surface below freezing
Wetbulb zero:        Below ground
Precipitable water:        0.59 inches
Sfc-500 mean rel hum:     98.78 %
Est. max temperature:     11.47 C =   52.64 F
Sfc-Lift cond lev (LCL): 914.61 mb =   890.25 m =  2920.72 ft T:   -1.06 C
700-500 lapse rate:        6.16 C/km
ThetaE index:              0.00 C Layer  922.0- 238.6 mb
Conv cond level (CCL):   921.98 mb =   826.06 m =  2710.15 ft
  Mean mixing ratio:       4.00 g/kg
  Conv temperature:       -0.49 C =   31.11 F
Cap Strength:             10.07 C
Lifted Index:             11.03 C Risk: None
Lifted Index @300 mb:     12.66 C
Lifted Index @700 mb:      6.62 C
Showalter Index:           8.95 C Risk: None
Total Totals Index:       42.07 C Risk: None
  Vertical Totals Index:  21.27 C
  Cross Totals Index:     20.81 C
K Index:                  20.07   Risk: 20-40 % chance of thunderstorms
Sweat Index:             190.70   Risk: None
Energy Index:              2.76   Risk: None

Parcel Indices
Parcel: using surface
CAPE (B+):                 0.00 J/kg
Max Up Vert Vel:           0.00 m/s
Conv Inhibition (B-):  30499.14 J/kg
Cap Strength:             15.17 C
Lift Cond Lev (LCL):     914.61 mb =   890.25 m =  2920.72 ft
Lev Free Conv (LFC):      -1.00 mb = -9999.00 m = -9999.00 ft

Wind level data
   Storm motion: 263 at  30 knt
----------------------------------------------------------
                   TRUE/GROUND REL   |     STORM REL
 LEV   P    H    DIR SPD   U     V   | DIR SPD   U     V
       mb   m        knt     m/s     |     knt     m/s
----------------------------------------------------------
  0  1000   174                     
  1   950   587                     
  2   922   826  150   3  -1.4   2.3 |  87  31 -31.4  -1.4 
  3   900  1019  189  10   1.5   9.8 | 102  29 -28.6   6.0 
  4   850  1475  205  24  10.2  22.3 | 133  27 -19.9  18.5 
  5   800  1959  218  37  22.6  29.2 | 164  27  -7.5  25.4 
  6   750  2472  226  44  31.2  30.3 | 182  27   1.1  26.5 
  7   700  3015  231  43  33.2  26.9 | 188  23   3.1  23.2 
  8   650  3592  235  42  34.0  24.2 | 191  21   4.0  20.5 
  9   600  4207  237  42  35.5  23.0 | 196  20   5.5  19.2 
 10   550  4866  238  44  37.6  23.3 | 201  21   7.5  19.6 
 11   500  5575  239  47  39.9  24.3 | 205  23   9.8  20.6 
 12   450  6341  241  50  43.8  24.6 | 213  25  13.7  20.8 
 13   400  7176  243  54  47.9  24.7 | 220  27  17.8  20.9 
 14   350  8093  247  59  53.8  23.4 | 230  31  23.8  19.6 
 15   300  9113  255  71  68.8  18.3 | 249  41  38.7  14.5 
 16   250 10273  258  85  83.2  18.3 | 255  55  53.2  14.6 
 17   200 11676  259  86  84.5  16.6 | 257  56  54.4  12.9 
 18   150 13500  260  67  66.5  11.5 | 258  37  36.4   7.7 
 19   100 16073  269  48  48.3   0.6 | 280  19  18.2  -3.1 
 20    50 20443  283  19  18.8  -4.3 |  55  14 -11.3  -8.0 

Wind Parameters
Mean winds (0-6000m):            232.9 at   40.4 knts
Storm direction:                 262.9 at   30.3 knts
Shear (0-3000m)              pos:    7.2 neg:    0.0 tot:    7.2 10-3/s
Storm rel Dir Shear (0-3000m):     105.4 deg
Storm rel helicity (0-3000m) pos:  364.5 neg:    0.0 tot:  364.5 m^2/s^2
                             ave:  121.5 10^-3 m/s^2 rel:   0.93
Storm rel vorticity (0-3000m) horiz:    9.3 stream:    8.6 10^-3/s
Energy-Hel index:          0.00
Bulk Rich Number:          0.00
Bulk Shear:              139.66 m/s

Storm Parameters
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Depth  Mean    Inflow|    Shear      |           Helicity           | Vorticity
 AGL  Dir Spd Dir Spd|  Pos  Neg  Tot|  Pos   Neg   Tot   Ave   Rel |  Hor Strm
  m       knt     knt|     10^-3/s   |       m^2/s^2     m/s^2      | 10^-3/s
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 500  193  12 105  29| 18.6  0.0 18.6|139.6   0.0 139.6  279.2  0.97| 19.1 18.4
1000  204  19 122  26| 16.7  0.0 16.7|249.1   0.0 249.1  249.1  0.98| 17.5 17.1
1500  212  26 137  24| 14.0  0.0 14.0|320.8   0.0 320.8  213.9  0.98| 15.2 14.9
2000  218  30 149  23| 11.0  0.0 11.0|348.4   0.0 348.4  174.2  0.97| 12.6 12.2
2500  221  33 157  22|  8.6  0.0  8.6|357.5   0.0 357.5  143.0  0.94| 10.7 10.1
3000  224  34 163  22|  7.2  0.0  7.2|364.5   0.0 364.5  121.5  0.93|  9.3  8.6
4000  228  36 172  21|  5.7  0.0  5.7|379.7   0.0 379.7   94.9  0.93|  7.4  6.8
5000  231  38 179  21|  4.9  0.0  4.9|396.8   0.0 396.8   79.4  0.92|  6.3  5.8
6000  233  40 186  21|  4.5  0.0  4.5|423.4   0.0 423.4   70
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SnoJoe

SnoJoe

Posted
Posted

It's dicey as it has a 35 degree warm nose off the surface at that time.

 

That was the NAM so I can't get the resolution exactly on the elevation of 4600'. (it 

 

I will try the NAM-WRF 4km as it should be more granular.

 

The Standard NAM offsets 

 

Station: 36.107092,-81.824112

 

To

Latitude: 36.11

Longitude: -81.82

 

 

I thought it looked a tad warm. But it's nothing a 50 mile track difference can't handle if this thing goes south and east of us. Sure would love for this storm to stay all snow. I can do without any ice. I swear I think some of our power grid in this county is extension cords nailed up on trees going to the next house.

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SnoJoe

SnoJoe

Posted
Posted

Hell of a snow squall in Boone atm heavy snow and insane winds.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

 

Enjoy Mr. Nelson ! You guys up there have kinda' taken it on the chin this winter for your standards. I'm betting that you're going to get crushed Monday. You were one of the first to raise the possibility of something big. I hope we all do.

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AirNelson39

AirNelson39

Posted
Posted

Enjoy Mr. Nelson ! You guys up there have kinda' taken it on the chin this winter for your standards. I'm betting that you're going to get crushed Monday. You were one of the first to raise the possibility of something big. I hope we all do.

Thanks Joe! Yeah it's been a rough winter to this point up here. I've had a good feeling about the upcoming storm for most in the mtns. Some of our biggest and best snows have come with marginal and borderline temps.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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Tacoma

Tacoma

Posted
Posted

For Monday, the 4km nam has some impressive upper level temps thru hr 60 in the upper levels. I will be interested to watch this warm nose erode away 850mb & 925mb temps of -10c.

I don't think it happens, think precip. stays frozen the whole event in WNC.  GFS this morning looks to be showing a more southern track on the winter storm

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SnoJoe

SnoJoe

Posted
Posted

Sitting here praying for the Canadian. But anyways. I don't think I've seen it this windy here in ashe in the 5 years that I've been up here. There had to be gusts pushing 70 last night. It was honestly hard for me to sleep.

 

 

Yes, it was ridiculous and basically still is. I had gust at 4:56 of 54.6 mph. It's steady now around 25 with a temp of 6.4. Pretty cold.

 

My friends up from Florida left this morning around 7 to ski at Sugar. I expect to see them show back up by mid-afternoon. No way was I going with them.

 

Picked up 3 inches the last 36 hours. Wish someone would give me an exact amount I will receive the next few days ! :snowing:

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FlatLander48

FlatLander48

Posted
Posted

Yes, it was ridiculous and basically still is. I had gust at 4:56 of 54.6 mph. It's steady now around 25 with a temp of 6.4. Pretty cold.

My friends up from Florida left this morning around 7 to ski at Sugar. I expect to see them show back up by mid-afternoon. No way was I going with them.

Picked up 3 inches the last 36 hours. Wish someone would give me an exact amount I will receive the next few days ! :snowing:

This is the one time that I'm in the best spot for the storm. We'll see how it goes....getting close to 30 hours away and still so much confusion...

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SnoJoe

SnoJoe

Posted
Posted

This is the one time that I'm in the best spot for the storm. We'll see how it goes....getting close to 30 hours away and still so much confusion...

 

 

I agree. You look pretty good. This is the type of system that my elevation can actually hurt me when the warm air starts screaming in. We'll see what happens, but the anticipation is always fun to me. 

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FlatLander48

FlatLander48

Posted
Posted

This looks interesting from the winter storm watch:

 

ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE...AND

UP TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE.

Mines up to 4-8 inches. I'm gonna be honest, depending on how fast the CAD erodes, this could honestly be little dangerous in spots. Like reading in the main thread, several times in the past, several storms have busted all the models even up to 24 hours before the storm. Time will tell as we push through tonight into tomorrow evening. But it seems more models are slightly colder if anything, so this is gonna be a fun one.

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