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4th Annual Fall/Winter Thread for the Mountains/Foothills

Met1985

By Met1985,
in Southeastern States

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franklin NCwx

franklin NCwx

Posted
Posted

Are you reading the main thread right now? Taken the current euro verbatim, it's close to a big storm like we saw at the end of January. I'll take the odds of that over the TN runner

I'm looking at the model...verbatim it would go from snow to a massive rain storm. I'll take the Miller a solution over a Miller b.
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Hvward

Hvward

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Doing well. We got about 4 to 5 inches of snow. Not bad at all. I'm like ward though. Got to find that sweet spot.

 

I know man!  Seven Devils or somewhere like that seems like they do pretty well with NWF and synoptic events.  Your location also fairs pretty well lol.  I haven't fully made up my mind just yet, but I build for a living so my commute will vary anyways.  I like Haywood Co. though and it wouldn't put me too far away from Asheville and family.  I also like the Sam Gap/Street Gap areas of Madison Co. so that will be a place I look as well.

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Met1985

Met1985

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I know man! Seven Devils or somewhere like that seems like they do pretty well with NWF and synoptic events. Your location also fairs pretty well lol. I haven't fully made up my mind just yet, but I build for a living so my commute will vary anyways. I like Haywood Co. though and it wouldn't put me too far away from Asheville and family. I also like the Sam Gap/Street Gap areas of Madison Co. so that will be a place I look as well.

Yeah that's the key to hon in on not just upslope snow but also synoptic storms also. The max patch and fines creek are great for upslope events but sometimes they get downsloped on storms from the south. The plot creek balsam range is very good for synoptic storms but sometimes not to good for upslope events. Just like out towards crush and Lake Logan area. They do very well with synoptic storms but not really all that well for upslope areas. It's a fine line on where to live here. I like the upper Crabtree areas around liner creek and bald creek road.
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FlatLander48

FlatLander48

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I'm looking at the model...verbatim it would go from snow to a massive rain storm. I'll take the Miller a solution over a Miller b.

The problem is we didn't have a miller a solution before honestly outside of maybe 2 model runs. But the past day or so have trended worse before the scenario that the 12z euro showed. Compared to the past 24 hours of runs I would rather have today's run kust because even though it's not perfect it does show a lot more promise. Unless I am not thinking at all and just ranting. Please feel free to correct me if I am mistaken at what I'm looking at. Lord knows I'm not the best at interpreting models lol.

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Hvward

Hvward

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Yeah that's the key to hon in on not just upslope snow but also synoptic storms also. The max patch and fines creek are great for upslope events but sometimes they get downsloped on storms from the south. The plot creek balsam range is very good for synoptic storms but sometimes not to good for upslope events. Just like out towards crush and Lake Logan area. They do very well with synoptic storms but not really all that well for upslope areas. It's a fine line on where to live here. I like the upper Crabtree areas around liner creek and bald creek road.

 

Thanks for the insight man.  Crabtree goes up above 5300'(just discovered that), I bet it always get hammered.

 

As far as the Monday storm, the EPS still holds strong on the 50 member chart for a decent winter event so until we see the mean drop below 5", I wouldn't be too concerned.  This is exactly where we were before the Jan 22/23 storm, so lets just give it some time.  The OP was pretty different at 12z from 0z so until we see some consistency (with the euro and other models), I don't think anyone should throw in the towel. 

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ncjoaquin

ncjoaquin

Posted
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Aggressive forecast from GSP.

 

 

Washington's Birthday
Snow likely, mainly after noon. Cloudy, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Monday Night
Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 32. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Tuesday
A chance of rain and snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 44. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
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MikeGold

MikeGold

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Yeah that's the key to hon in on not just upslope snow but also synoptic storms also. The max patch and fines creek are great for upslope events but sometimes they get downsloped on storms from the south. The plot creek balsam range is very good for synoptic storms but sometimes not to good for upslope events. Just like out towards crush and Lake Logan area. They do very well with synoptic storms but not really all that well for upslope areas. It's a fine line on where to live here. I like the upper Crabtree areas around liner creek and bald creek road.

 

Really only one place that gets fully hit both with upslope and synoptic is Mt Mitchell.(The SMNP is a close second but can't get a place up there.)  There was some lots for sale last year at the 6000 foot level; an in holding in the National Park service land. I don't know if they are still available.(I doubt it.) The higher elevations above Pensacola get both as well to a lesser extent and there are vacation homes up there.

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Met1985

Met1985

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Really only one place that gets fully hit both with upslope and synoptic is Mt Mitchell.(The SMNP is a close second but can't get a place up there.) There was some lots for sale last year at the 6000 foot level; an in holding in the National Park service land. I don't know if they are still available.(I doubt it.) The higher elevations above Pensacola get both as well to a lesser extent and there are vacation homes up there.

Nice. Thanks for the input. It's hard to really get a happy in between.
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MikeGold

MikeGold

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Nice. Thanks for the input. It's hard to really get a happy in between.

 

Mt. Mitchell is weird. It is well removed from the normal upslope regions but still gets nailed.  I think a few factors are involved.

 

The shape/size/orientation of the Black Mountain range seems to really scoop out the available moisture.(Of course the elevation is just about perfect...if it was higher..it would actually be above enough of the atmosphere that it would starting getting less precip with height.)  It is just far enough away from the TN line that a parcel of air is no longer sinking...probably is at neutral when it gets uplifted again ascending the Black Mountains.

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SnoJoe

SnoJoe

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Finally stopped. I'm going to call it 12" but who knows really. I took a 4-wheeler ride this afternoon and found some really deep drifts. I had to cut the ride short because of temps and wind. I had a low today of 2.1 and a high of 9.8. And the wind never quit. Now it's 7.7 with a 10 knt breeze. 

 

Looking forward to the next round. Congrats to all that saw snow and I appreciate you guys putting up with me and offering up all your expertise. 

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nchighcountrywx

nchighcountrywx

Posted
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Finally stopped. I'm going to call it 12" but who knows really. I took a 4-wheeler ride this afternoon and found some really deep drifts. I had to cut the ride short because of temps and wind. I had a low today of 2.1 and a high of 9.8. And the wind never quit. Now it's 7.7 with a 10 knt breeze. 

 

Looking forward to the next round. Congrats to all that saw snow and I appreciate you guys putting up with me and offering up all your expertise.

Fred Gifford was not too far off with his call fo 16" after all. He got Mt Mitchell about right.

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franklin NCwx

franklin NCwx

Posted
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The favored areas should exceed double digits, the lakes are warm and the column saturation is great up to 700mb for over 48 hours. Met and Joe should cleanup.

Looks like a pretty good call. Anytime you see good 700mb rh levels for a sustained period of time you know someone will clean up. It does look like the central Mtn counties missed out on the best flow.
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SnoJoe

SnoJoe

Posted
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Ray already put up the big snow for Monday and tuesday.

 

 

I like his wording:

 

"The Arctic chill continues Sunday setting the stage for a "Big Dog" event Monday into Tuesday--probably a snow to mix scenario. Too early and too big for details, but it will be significant."

 

And from NWS forecast Discussion:

 

QPF COULD BE QUITE HIGH CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS

OF A WINTRY MIX BEFORE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF TUESDAY .

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NavarreDon

NavarreDon

Posted
Posted

GSP has it's eye towards the Monday storm. Still a long way to go folks but this could be another good one for most of the Mnt folks!

 

THE GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TOWARD A MILLER A TYPE SYSTEM...BUT THE
SURFACE LOW IS WELL INLAND WITH AN I-20 TO I-95 TRACK. MOISTURE
SPREADS INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS OVER THE AREA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST ALONG THE AFORE
MENTIONED TRACK. WITH THE VERY COLD AIR IN PLACE AT PRECIP ONSET...
P-TYPE SHOULD START OUT AS SNOW. A WARM NOSE DEVELOPS AS LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION TAKES PLACE MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE
AREA. THIS WILL CHANGE THE SNOW TO RAIN SOUTH OF I-85...AND PORTIONS
OF THE SW NC MOUNTAINS. THAT SAID...THE SURFACE TEMPS COULD REMAIN
NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING NORTH OF I-85 AND THE WARM NOSE COULD BE
STRONGER AND FARTHER NORTH. THIS WOULD MEAN A TRANSITION TO SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN...CHANGING MAINLY TO RAIN SOUTH OF I-85. QPF COULD
BE QUITE HIGH CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
OF A WINTRY MIX BEFORE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF TUESDAY AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WILL KEEP THE HWO
MENTION...BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AND THE FORECAST COULD CHANGE
SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE EVENT APPROACHES.

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MikeGold

MikeGold

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I really can't make heads or tails in the other thread with the upcoming threats. Not much talk about the mountains. What i did gather was a snow to sleet to rain then maybe back to snow type of scenario.  It's that about right ?

Latest GFS looks fairly warm suggesting mostly rain ending as perhaps a moderate snow event. Note the GFS usually does poorly with CAD so I guess a mix on the front end is still in play.  I think earlier runs were colder, NAM doesn't cover the event yet and don't know what the Euro says. Total QPF almost 2" from the Balsams towards the SW..lesser amounts to the NE.

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FlatLander48

FlatLander48

Posted
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Latest GFS looks fairly warm suggesting mostly rain ending as perhaps a moderate snow event. Note the GFS usually does poorly with CAD so I guess a mix on the front end is still in play. I think earlier runs were colder, NAM doesn't cover the event yet and don't know what the Euro says.

In all honesty, the high pressure going out to the Atlantic might kill everyone even us on this one, especially if the storm trends slower.

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AirNelson39

AirNelson39

Posted
Posted

I'm not too concerned over the 1 model run flip of the GFS. Also note the CMC has basically been sticking to its guns with the track similar to the 12z GFS so it's not like it's started to trend to that solution, it's simply just been showing the same thing. I'm sticking to my guns for the Mtns to see a wet paste bomb snow storm.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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NCSNOW

NCSNOW

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I'm not too concerned over the 1 model run flip of the GFS. Also note the CMC has basically been sticking to its guns with the track similar to the 12z GFS so it's not like it's started to trend to that solution, it's simply just been showing the same thing. I'm sticking to my guns for the Mtns to see a wet paste bomb snow storm.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 I would make sure you use the ens and ens mean after seeing all individual members to make sure one is not promoting a false signal before buying the ops good or bad till atleast saturday. Still think this is a warning criteria storm Monday for mtns, foothills and good chunk of western peidmont(ice mostly here). Havent seen any evidence on ens to change my thinking. The ops play alot of folks like a yo yo. If the ens start zeroing in on a rain storm then bet on the rain storm, but until then be cautious both ways, good and bad

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