FlatLander48 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 We're cancelling 3 days of snow for a couple hours of sun? What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 So far KGSP is not backing down and accumulations at mid day are mostly above 4500'. It remains to be seen if the next lobe in the moisture is more productive. The HRRR seems to have backed off some. As of 3:25pm KGSP has not made their full Afternoon AFD available. If the ECMWF Ensembles have it right, all 50 of them keep the NW NC High Country well below freezing through the 15th except for one day for a few hours. Hopefully we can set up a general small snowpack early this week for the chance of a substantial snowstorm to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Watching the clouds rolling back into ashe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Currently 37° in Linville,NC light snow. Will be interesting how the evening and night unfolds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 This looks powerful guys.. A Great Lakes low that is now popping up precipitation in the GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Just as we get our hopes up, afternoon GSP forecast discussion starts downplaying the event. States that many ingredients are missing for a heavy NWFS event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Blacksburg just took away my winter storm watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Moderate snow now in Banner elk,NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Blacksburg just took away my winter storm watch. Yep GSP just cancelled our winter storm watch for tomorrow through Thursday. The way this precip shield is pin wheeling, we are getting our moisture coming in directly west and even southwest..not good..Maybe when the low moves off more to the east tomorrow we can get a good NWF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 18z gfs looks to keep more of a west to southwesterly wind. That usually works out better for my are and not as good for the border counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 8, 2016 Author Share Posted February 8, 2016 Heavy squall coming in know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Clouds are pretty dark now, maybe some heavier bands incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 It last update to the late afternoon AFD, KGSP points out several difficulties with the forecast that are highlighted in Red Below with the favorable factors in Green. http://hp2.wright-weather.com/cgi-bin/text-awips.cgi?type=AFDGSP NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...AS OF 245 PM EST MONDAY...A BROAD UPPER LONGWAVE TROF CONTINUES TOHIGHLIGHT THE PATTERN ALOFT...AND ALSO DRIVE THE WX AT THE SURFACEWHERE A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE OUT OF THE NC FOOTHILLSINTO/THROUGH THE NC/SC PIEDMONT AS WELL AS NORTHEAST GA. LIGHTSHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH SAID FRONT ARE HAVING A ROUGH GO AT IT WITHSURFACE TD DEPRESSIONS UPWARDS OF 25-30 DEGREES THUS PROHIBITINGMUCH OF SAID PRECIP FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. THAT SAID...SURFACETEMPS WILL BEGIN TO COOL BEHIND THE FRONT ALLOWING FOR THAT GAPTO NARROW AND THUS MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL OCCUR.LIKEWISE...A SERIES OF H5 VORTICITY MAXIMAS WILL PASS THROUGHTHE TROF BASE OVER THE NEXT 4-6 HOURS...WITH THE FIRST OF WHICHDOING SO AT PRESENT TIME. THIS REGION OF UPPER SUPPORT CONTINUESTO YIELD ENHANCED RA/SN SHOWERS OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS...WITH RASHOWERS BREAKING CONTAINMENT INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND UPPER PIEDMONTLOCALES. THUS...POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WILLREMAIN AT CHANCE LEVELS OVER THE LOWER TERRAIN...INCREASING WITHELEVATION TOWARDS THE TN LINE WHERE CATEROGICALS ARE FAVORED.POPS WILL THEN TAPER EVERYWHERE OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS INTO TUESDAYMORNING AS THE FLOW VEERS GRADUALLY AND THE FIRST OF SAID H5 VORTSEXITS TO THE EAST. POPS ALONG THE TN LINE WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ATCATEGORICAL LEVELS AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ORTHOGONAL TO THE TERRAINTHUS SETTING UP INCREASED UPSLOPE POTENTIAL...LASTING THROUGH THEREMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.AS FOR PRODUCTS...WILL CONTINUE TO WITH CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNINGACROSS THE ALREADY WARNED LOCALES...EXTEND THE CURRENT ADVISORYPRODUCT IN TIME THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW...ALL THE WHILE EXPANDINGTHE ADVISORY A BIT FURTHER SOUTH TO INCLUDE RABUN COUNTY GA GIVENLATEST HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TOTALS MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA.NEW SNOW TOTALS TOP OUT IN THE 2-4 INCH RANGE ALONG THE TN LINEWITH A 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE EASTWARD ALONG THE ESCARPMENT.&&.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...AS OF 225 PM MONDAY...PROTRACTED NW FLOW SNOW EVENT WILL BE UNDERWAYAT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNIGHT BEFORE THE MOISTURE FINALLY BECOMES TOO SHALLOW TO SUPPORTMUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER GENERATION. IN THE INTERIM...THE MOSTIMPRESSIVE ASPECT OF THIS EVENT WILL BE THE THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTUREIN THE UPSLOPE LAYER...WITH TEMPS AS COLD AS -20 AT THE TOP OF THEMOIST LAYER THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS THIS COLD USUALLYSUPPORT EFFICIENT SNOWFALL PRODUCING SHOWERS...WITH OFTEN OUTLANDISHSNOW:LIQUID RATIOS IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 30:1. HOWEVER...THEQUESTION IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIQUID PRODUCED TO ACHIEVEWARNING/WATCH CRITERIA SNOWFALL ON APPROPRIATE TIME AND SPATIALSCALES.SOME OF THE OTHER INGREDIENTS THAT ONE TYPICALLY LIKES TO SEE FOR AHEAVY NW FLOW SNOW EVENT ARE MISSING...INCLUDING THE ORIENTATION OFTHE FLOW. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE H8 FLOW ALMOST NEVER EXCEEDS 25 KTSTHROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE THE DIRECTION REMAINS MOSTLY WNW.THUS...THE ACTUAL COMPONENT OF THE FLOW ORTHOGONAL TO THE SOUTHERNAPPALACHIANS IS RELATIVELY WEAK. THE OTHER CONSEQUENCE OF THELESS-THAN-IDEAL FLOW ORIENTATION IS THAT LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES DONOT ORIGINATE FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WHICH IS TYPICALLY NEEDED TOPRODUCE THE TYPE OF UPSTREAM STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES/HIGH FROUDENUMBERS NECESSARY TO PRODUCE A LOT OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT. INDEED...THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE BEST LOW LEVEL LAPSERATES/FROUDE NUMBERS UPSTREAM OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WHILETHEY ARE QUITE MODEST FROM CENTRAL KY THROUGH EAST TN. OVERALL...THIS DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE A SETUP CONDUCIVE TO A WARNING-LEVELEVENT. HAVING SAID THAT...THERE ARE LOCATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHELEVATIONS OF THE SMOKIES AND OTHER HIGH PEAKS AND RIDGE TOPS ALONGTHE TN BORDER THAT WILL PROBABLY SEE STORM TOTALS OF MORE THAN AFOOT THROUGHOUT THIS PROLONGED EVENT...BUT THESE AMOUNTS WOULD FALLON TIME/SPATIAL SCALES THAT DO NOT WARRANT A WARNING...BUT RATHER ANADVISORY.OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE QUITE COLD THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH TEMPSAVERAGING A GOOD 15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. WIND CHILL VALUES WILLREACH ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NC TUENIGHT...AND ACROSS ALL OF THE MOUNTAINS WED NIGHT. INFACT...LOCATIONS ABOVE 3500 FT MAY SEE WARNING CCRITERIA WIND CHILLOF -15 OR LESS WED NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 And from Rays Weather: This weekend will be ideal for Winter Outdoorsman here in the NC High Country that like to get out there and get it done in the beauty of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Tried to tell y'all today's unpredicted beautiful blue sky day was cause for concern...id like to be wrong but still not buying the totals for the NW Mtns. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Tried to tell y'all today's unpredicted beautiful blue sky day was cause for concern...id like to be wrong but still not buying the totals for the NW Mtns. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I wouldn't give up hope just yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Tried to tell y'all today's unpredicted beautiful blue sky day was cause for concern...id like to be wrong but still not buying the totals for the NW Mtns. You have got to get off the cliff man. Remember last event? You ended up with 15" after being mad for a whole day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Lol... No word from snowless in Carrollton. He is either in a ditch, or drunk gambling at the casino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Not going to lie, it's absolutely hammering, heavy heavy heavy in Boone. Just hope it keeps up and I'm glad we didn't waste this before the sun today. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K4CF Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Yep...NWF bringing the goods now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Absolutely ripping flakes! Roads are already totally covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Heavy snow here everything turning white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Nice shower now but like Mr. Nelson, it snowed 3 different times today but the sun came out and zapped it. We'll see what tonight brings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K4CF Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 18Z GFS keeps it churning thru Wed night/early Thur morn! NAM/RGEM do too but just not as amped up as the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Lol... No word from snowless in Carrollton. He is either in a ditch, or drunk gambling at the casino. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Seriously snowless....part of the chase is reporting in your findings on a regimented basis! So tell us what we really want to know....how much did you drop on the roulette wheel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 WataugaCommCenter (@WataugaCommCent) 2/8/16, 19:32 Roads are getting pretty dicey. Try to stay home once you get there and let DOT work their magic.If you must get out please have AWD/4WD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 850 mb mesoanalysis and BR radar. Not bad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Wow. Just had a squall to come through that had the heaviest rates I've seen this year. It only lasted for maybe 10 minutes but had to drop at least a half inch. It's getting cold now too (24.4) so this stuff is sticking to everything. You can also tell the ratios are going up too. It's is getting real fluffy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Seriously snowless....part of the chase is reporting in your findings on a regimented basis! So tell us what we really want to know....how much did you drop on the roulette wheel?He's either lost his ass or hit the jackpot.. Snow is the least of his worries now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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