Met1985 Posted February 6, 2016 Author Share Posted February 6, 2016 The favored areas should exceed double digits, the lakes are warm and the column saturation is great up to 700mb for over 48 hours. Met and Joe should cleanup.I'm thinking so also. We are going to see a couple of disturbances coming through and I think a warning will be issued for the TN boarder counties. This is going to be a multi day event. I could easily see upwards of a foot plus will the forcing coming through the mountains. Temps are going to be very cold and the ratios will be high. Going to be some good powder for the Ski resorts. Also Franklin social gap should get creamed hard. Going to be fun watching this take place especially with the winds. Maybe some brief ground blizzard reports here and there. Ward great updates man. We appreciate your contributions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 I'm thinking so also. We are going to see a couple of disturbances coming through and I think a warning will be issued for the TN boarder counties. This is going to be a multi day event. I could easily see upwards of a foot plus will the forcing coming through the mountains. Temps are going to be very cold and the ratios will be high. Going to be some good powder for the Ski resorts. Also Franklin social gap should get creamed hard. Going to be fun watching this take place especially with the winds. Maybe some brief ground blizzard reports here and there. Ward great updates man. We appreciate your contributions.it should be good enough for 2-3 inches here at the house especially at the start with a more westerly and brief southwesterly wind component. I'm thinking of heading to soco on Tuesday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 6, 2016 Author Share Posted February 6, 2016 it should be good enough for 2-3 inches here at the house especially at the start with a more westerly and brief southwesterly wind component. I'm thinking of heading to soco on Tuesday evening.Yeah that place should get hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 6, 2016 Author Share Posted February 6, 2016 Really looking at the euro is looks like we are locked into a cold pattern for the next 10 days at least. I like that look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Thanks met, you as well! I like the look too, EPS members have a few big dog signals and that is always a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Dang..Don't understand but GSP not at all impressed with NWF this week. Only 2-4 inches on the ridge tops of the Apps.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 GSP is all about mostly rain in Aville with some mix. I know GSF shows a warm surface, but are we really going to waste most of Monday with rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 6, 2016 Author Share Posted February 6, 2016 GSP is all about mostly rain in Aville with some mix. I know GSF shows a warm surface, but are we really going to waste most of Monday with rain?I don't really see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 GSP is all about mostly rain in Aville with some mix. I know GSF shows a warm surface, but are we really going to waste most of Monday with rain? My pin point forecast for Monday is rain and snow, then becoming all rain after 5 pm. I have never seen temps rise and snow become rain after a front comes through from the NW in this type of situation. It also states, little to no accumulation Monday or Monday night. Something's not right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 My pin point forecast for Monday is rain and snow, then all rain after 5 pm. I have never seen temps rise and snow become rain after a front comes through from the NW in this type of situation. It also states, little to no accumulation Monday or Monday night. Something's not right. Well,if your forecast has that,it is really odd. It was odd enough with Asheville, but at least maybe I can buy it here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 WLOS showed a snow accumulation map through Tuesday night and the most it showed anywhere was 3".. What have we missed? I thought this was gonna be one of the better NWF events in several years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 WLOS showed a snow accumulation map through Tuesday night and the most it showed anywhere was 3".. What have we missed? I thought this was gonna be one of the better NWF events in several years.not sure why, the Euro and the ensemble mean have consistly showed 3-4 for the Macon county airport at 2100ft and 4-5 for Andrews. The column has good saturation for up to 48 hours with multiple spokes of energy coming through the base of the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 WLOS showed a snow accumulation map through Tuesday night and the most it showed anywhere was 3".. What have we missed? I thought this was gonna be one of the better NWF events in several years. I think GSP and WLOS are out to lunch. I even think Asheville will see 2 to 3 inches if everything comes together. heck Atlanta could see an inch I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 I'm a little surprised with how bullish Blacksburg is for Boone. They're going with a storm total of 3-8. I would be very happy with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 WLOS showed a snow accumulation map through Tuesday night and the most it showed anywhere was 3".. What have we missed? I thought this was gonna be one of the better NWF events in several years. Yeah, their "in house" model, although it might be the GFS, showed me getting .9 inches through Tues pm. It'll be a big disappointment if that happens. I guess it's just a wait and see event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Yeah, their "in house" model, although it might be the GFS, showed me getting .9 inches through Tues pm. It'll be a big disappointment if that happens. I guess it's just a wait and see event. kinda hard for me to believe that little bit for you, I'm thinking with the super cold and plenty of moisture and lift, well everything I'm seeing and reading would say the Tenn. border counties winter storm watch and the rest of the mtns. Asheville included winter weather advisories. i grew up here and Asheville was always considered the mtns. High Elevations and Low Elevations is the way it use to be worded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Sisk Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 I think GSP and WLOS are out to lunch. I even think Asheville will see 2 to 3 inches if everything comes together. heck Atlanta could see an inch I think. Personally, I believe GSP has the best set of mets there now than ever before. Mets that seem to have experience as to how weather works in the Western Carolina's. It will be interesting to see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 kinda hard for me to believe that little bit for you, I'm thinking with the super cold and plenty of moisture and lift, well everything I'm seeing and reading would say the Tenn. border counties winter storm watch and the rest of the mtns. Asheville included winter weather advisories. i grew up here and Asheville was always considered the mtns. High Elevations and Low Elevations is the way it use to be worded. I grew up here too and of course Asheville is in the mountains. We're a proud folk about where we live and are kinda' clan-dish as well. Boyer needs to fine some new zonal terms! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 7, 2016 Author Share Posted February 7, 2016 Guys nw flow is always hard to predict. I really would not worry about what this or that person says. The models look good for several impulses to work through from Monday through Wednesday. The mountains are always tough to predict snow in especially when you have micro climates where you have certain bands on snow setup depending on trajectory of the flow coming in. One mountain may get pounder when another mountain does not. Also you should know by now WLOS does not do a great job with upslope snow. No need to gey your panties in a bunch. Let's see how this plays out as always. We live in a very diverse area with impressive elevation changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Guys nw flow is always hard to predict. I really would not worry about what this or that person says. The models look good for several impulses to work through from Monday through Wednesday. The mountains are always tough to predict snow in especially when you have micro climates where you have certain bands on snow setup depending on trajectory of the flow coming in. One mountain may get pounder when another mountain does not. Also you should know by now WLOS does not do a great job with upslope snow. No need to gey your panties in a bunch. Let's see how this plays out as always. We live in a very diverse area with impressive elevation changes. Fred Gifford down at the One Stop said we're suppose to get 16 inches. And he's the manager. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Fred Gifford down at the One Stop said we're suppose to get 16 inches. And he's the manager. Lmao!!! That's a good one Joe!! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Met has it right. This setup will include some banding and even in the mtns some will be winners and others 9th place trophy winners, but everyone in the mtns should pick up some accumulating snow. Have fun SnoJoe and others along the TN line, looking forward to your reports! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Yeah guys I am struggling to find a warm nose on any model strong enough to really matter. GFs has temps at the onset of precip that would melt flakes but it disappeas after 3 hrs. I mean KAVL and the column above are close enough to freezing to not melt flakes at the onset of moisture. With these 3 different shots of moisture, Asheville could get 2"-3" of snow and I think 10"+ for high mountains above 4500'. I am looking forward to the pics Joe and Met! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Yeah guys I am struggling to find a warm nose on any model strong enough to really matter. GFs has temps at the onset of precip that would melt flakes but it disappeas after 3 hrs. I mean KAVL and the column above are close enough to freezing to not melt flakes at the onset of moisture. With these 3 different shots of moisture, Asheville could get 2"-3" of snow and I think 10"+ for high mountains above 4500'. I am looking forward to the pics Joe and Met! Really appreciate your input and expertise, a joy reading what you have to say and your opinions, plus you are right on most of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Yeah guys I am struggling to find a warm nose on any model strong enough to really matter. GFs has temps at the onset of precip that would melt flakes but it disappeas after 3 hrs. I mean KAVL and the column above are close enough to freezing to not melt flakes at the onset of moisture. With these 3 different shots of moisture, Asheville could get 2"-3" of snow and I think 10"+ for high mountains above 4500'. I am looking forward to the pics Joe and Met! Agree with Fritschy. I appreciate you injecting some real knowledge into the conversation. It is much appreciated. NWS still showing mostly rain. Interesting. In agreement with you though Hvward, Ray's sees all snow, a trace to 2 inches. The 6z GFS stays really cold. What looked like a warm up continues to show cold and colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 No problem guys! I owe a lot to this board. I can see where the fear of warm surface temps Monday afternoon, but the column only goes above freezing for a couple of hours. There could be a mix at the onset, but once the sun goes down it will be game on.. if it even takes that long. This could be one of those events where the flow starts showing up 2-3hrs before it was modeled. I expect those in the higher mountains to wake up to some snow falling tomorrow and it is very possible that the flow is strong enough to even give the valleys of WNC flakage in the AM. I would say for anyone chasing though that the best forcing will be in place Monday night, and that will be when I am out. Not sure exactly if I will head to Soco or try out Madison Co. but my driver has a massive truck and grew up on the backroads of WNC, so hopefully I can find some deep stuff and take pictures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Oh and one quick note.. I know for a fact that Boyer forecasts off maps from College of Dupage so that might influence the detail of his forecast. Maybe Zack Green has swayed him since I know he uses Weatherbell, but as of last year Boyer was still using low detail free maps. Someone should turn him on to tropical tidbits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 I'm headed to Beech tomorrow mornimg to chase the snow as well since I know I won't have class tuesday. Gonna be a fun one to watch. I'm really excited for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Okay quick question guys. I've got to go to Greenwood, SC tomorrow to help a friend pick up a Tahoe. Do you think Sam's Gap will be passable tomorrow? Especially tomorrow evening? I think the trip going across tomorrow morning will be okay because of the timing of the system. I'm just a little worried about tomorrow evening when the upslope should be in full effect. Do they treat the roads pretty well up there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 7, 2016 Author Share Posted February 7, 2016 Ward great stuff man as always. Thanks for the good words fellas. Sometimes experience trumps what a forecast says. Also tomorrow evening for Sam's gap may be harry. But hey you only live once right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.