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4th Annual Fall/Winter Thread for the Mountains/Foothills


Met1985

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Ok good morning guys. Managed to get a couple hours of sleep and looks like we've got a good 5 inched so far. But it's not snowing. Now here where I get confused a little bit. Where is all the other snow supposed to come from??

 

I know people rip weather.com but look at their Future projection. It shows that "fire hose" just east of Atlanta moving very slowly over you and adding moisture from the Atlantic. Then it has what it looks like a deform band developing in GA...or could just be radar blowing up back west in GA. Then after all of that, there is the snow in west Tennessee that needs to be watched for Saturday.

 

http://www.weather.com/weather/radar/interactive/l

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Meaning that I have no idea how were gonna make the projections...

*edit* found the article on the main thread showing the development mid morning but I'm still nervous that might not happen.

looks like on the radar that there is a lot of snow to come thru with the deformation zone and when the low gets cranking on the coast will throw snow west to help enhance the snow

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Great read about what the storm will be like further North:

 

http://jimladueview.blogspot.com/2016/01/if-anything-snow-fall-could-be-even.html

 

 

Here is part of it:

 

"I'm expecting at some point the excessive mess-alpha scale vertical motion field will sufficient vertical instability to generate lightning, momentarily blinding you in a sheet of brilliant orchid purple.  No doubt you'll expect to hear a blast of thunder but with the insulating effect of billions of frozen hydrometeors the sound will be surprisingly muffled.  If there is to be lightning, the snow may wind up falling as soft graupel the size of nickels to quarters.  Such intense convective frozen precipitation has been documented by Picca et al. (2014) in another epic snowband in Long Island. With temperatures approaching the melting point aloft, some of the grapple may appear refrozen, however the convective nature of the heaviest part of the band will prevent pure sleet.  You'd have to be outside the band to see sleet, especially southeast of the district.  One thing that may happen is that the band will be sufficiently electrified to charge the snow flakes and soft graupel to the point that it will stick to everything.  It's quite likely signs will become caked with snow.  Perhaps your car may as well requiring even more frequent wiping with your glove on the highway shoulder, should you find it.  With the bad visibility and snow-caked highway signs, you'd better have a GPS enabled map to make sure you don't miss the exit should you wish to bail.  If you do bail, make sure you've got 4-wheel drive or chains.  There are plenty of hills that will offer up a free uncontrolled ride into something you don't want to hit."

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FYI..the SPC Mesoanaylsis 850 temps numbers are not particularly accurate.

 

For instance, it shows a temperature of 0 Celsius at 850mb but ground report at the same location of Mt. Pisgah is only 17 degrees(-8 C) which is about at the 850 mb level due to its elevation. No doubt the thermal fields in the mountains are very complex this morning due to the interaction of a very dynamic system and terrain.

 

Note: Webcam up on Mt. Pisgah this morning: http://www.brpwebcams.org/cam/10/1

 

Looks like they are buried in snow...much more snow than Balsam which evidently is getting some shadowing from the SE wind. (For a good view..hit the 24 hour animation loop.)

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Lets talk impacts. So far, the wind is preventing any snow from accumulating on trees or power lines. If that holds, seems to me losing power should be a very low chance. The winds themselves may cause a few issues but the weight of the snow alone shouldn't be the culprit. Thoughts?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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Lets talk impacts. So far, the wind is preventing any snow from accumulating on trees or power lines. If that holds, seems to me losing power should be a very low chance. The winds themselves may cause a few issues but the weight of the snow alone shouldn't be the culprit. Thoughts?

 

 

 

Winds on the ground may continue to increase some peaking out around 16Z. 

 

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomainZipTZA.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr_ncep_jet:&runTime=2016012209&plotName=gust_t610m&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=25&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=24&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t6

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Lets talk impacts. So far, the wind is preventing any snow from accumulating on trees or power lines. If that holds, seems to me losing power should be a very low chance. The winds themselves may cause a few issues but the weight of the snow alone shouldn't be the culprit. Thoughts?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

I don't have power lines to look at, but the trees are plastered. I am all for not losing power. How much snow do you have? How do you see this going forward? It continues to pour here. I feel like my location has been optimal for this for a change.

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I don't have power lines to look at, but the trees are plastered. I am all for not losing power. How much snow do you have? How do you see this going forward? It continues to pour here. I feel like my location has been optimal for this for a change.

 

From my perspective, the forecast is unchanged from yesterday.  It seems the HRRR has an excellent handle on things and keeps snow flying in the mountains through 3pm or so with a lull (as has been expected) until the upper low passes overhead.  Tonight we see the deformation band come through and then we switch to a classic NWFS event tomorrow morning.

 

Here in southwest Buncombe, we have a solid 6" this morning, pretty much on par with what the GFS and Euro were forecasting by 12Z.  If they are right, we have about 6-10" more snow to come today through midnight.

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From my perspective, the forecast is unchanged from yesterday. It seems the HRRR has an excellent handle on things and keeps snow flying in the mountains through 3pm or so with a lull (as has been expected) until the upper low passes overhead. Tonight we see the deformation band come through and then we switch to a classic NWFS event tomorrow morning.i like the sound of that.

Here in southwest Buncombe, we have a solid 6" this morning, pretty much on par with what the GFS and Euro were forecasting by 12Z. If they are right, we have about 6-10" more snow to come today through midnight.

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