MikeGold Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I actually think that once the low transfers the best spot is going to be the east side of the apps along the blue ridge. Kind of happened last year with the big low in February, the further west you went the less snow. Example. I live In jefferson, we had 13 inches, at my boss's house which is in on the west side, Crumpler i believe, she had 9 inches. i'm not sure if this setup will have the same results, but I do believe the heaviest amounts will be the western foothills and east side of the mtns. I don't have much data to back it up, more of a hunch. There will be both NW and SE wind enhancements along with snows associated with the upper level low. It will likely create a crazy quilt pattern of snow over Western NC especially with a mix thrown in for good measure for the SW areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 Finally down to 32 degrees. Just wait and see now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 There will be both NW and SE wind enhancements along with snows associated with the upper level low. It will likely create a crazy quilt pattern of snow over Western NC especially with a mix thrown in for good measure for the SW areas. Yeah a very dynamic system for sure. This type setup kind of reminds me of the Christmas weekend storm when we had a system from the south then we had one heck of an upslope snow the day after Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Starting off as a mixed bag with a temp of 34. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 We're really warm up in Asheville. 39.8 F on UNCA campus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 We're really warm up in Asheville. 39.8 F on UNCA campus. That's really quite warm considering the CAD really hasn't got going yet. *Edit* skies outside are still crystal clear, might actually go below forecasted temps here as we're already in the upper 20's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonhowl Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 37.6 F a few miles away in East Asheville unfortunately don't know the RH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Under a tornado watch till 3:00am down here in the handle. Nasty storms over in Mississippi. As Mike knows from his knowledge of the area the worst weather is always inland as far as tornadic situations go. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 NWS says wetbulbs in the mountains are not as low as EURO or GFS predicted but more in line with the warmer NAM..Hopefully not a trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 NWS says wetbulbs in the mountains are not as low as EURO or GFS predicted but more in line with the warmer NAM..Hopefully not a trend They also mention that it's not necessarily indicative of later conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Late night trends and outside environment hasn't been the best y'all but it's time to stop looking at them anyway and just watch what falls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Boy.....it got awful quite in here! Where'd you all go? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Everyone is saying the NAM ruined a lot of people's hopes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Boy.....it got awful quite in here! Where'd you all go? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk We are getting NAM'd again. Took away 70% of our snow and replaced it with sleet and freezing rain. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 We are getting NAM'd again. Took away 70% of our snow and replaced it with sleet and freezing rain. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk If it does happen that way for AVL with 1.5 QPF that could be real ugly. Worse than a foot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Hasn't the NAM been kind of an outlier all day to a point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 180 degree turn in attitudes board wide from 6 o'clock to now. Nothing is going to satisfy anybody until we start seeing some précip fall. Hate seeing models flipping ideas couple hours before the event though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 If it does happen that way for AVL with 1.5 QPF that could be real ugly. Worse than a foot of snow. I'm not sure if it's onto something or not. HRRR seems at odds with it in the next 12 hours. EPS also doesn't support the new NAM solution. Will be critical to see the GFS if it trends the same way (i.e., less snow and much more mix). Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 Meh still a wait and see game model or no model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I'm not sure if it's onto something or not. HRRR seems at odds with it in the next 12 hours. EPS also doesn't support the new NAM solution. Will be critical to see the GFS if it trends the same way (i.e., less snow and much more mix). Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HRRR is also 4 degrees too warm at 9 pm. I don't trust NAM, but HRRR is a bit odd too. UNCA will launch the first balloon at 11 pm so we'll find out. EDIT: The low in Mississippi on mesoanalysis is 3 mb weaker than what NAM is showing at this point, FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Nam doesn't appear to be correct with different parts. Can't really type out the whole thing on my phone. Also there are still models showing many spots towards the mid 20 inch mark. Favoring the areas close to the blue ridge like I mentioned earlier. I'm done looking at models outside of tonight's run of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Wish you were here Don! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Nam doesn't appear to be correct with different parts. Can't really type out the whole thing on my phone. Also there are still models showing many spots towards the mid 20 inch mark. Favoring the areas close to the blue ridge like I mentioned earlier. I'm done looking at models outside of tonight's run of the GFS. At least HRRR and RAP look amazing for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Deep breath guys. I don't buy the nam solution. It could be having its feedback issues again. Surprised about the hrrr. I know everyone wants 20" but if you get 8-10" it's still a awesome storm. Way to late to be relying on any long range model stick with the rap/hrrr but better yet sit back and let it happen! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Great post Don. Deep breath guys. I don't buy the nam solution. It could be having its feedback issues again. Surprised about the hrrr. I know everyone wants 20" but if you get 8-10" it's still a awesome storm. Way to late to be relying on any long range model stick with the rap/hrrr but better yet sit back and let it happen!Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk To note, the NAM was the only model that continue to give me a strong warm nose , 800 level, over the past two days. However, the GFS continued to work that warm nose out and the last two showed no warm nose at any level. Radar continues to look good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonhowl Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 From GSP this evening: IT/S QUITE INTERESTING TO COMPARE THE LATEST SURFACE OBS TO THE THEMOST RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE. NAM SURFACE WET BULB TEMPS...WHICHDEPICT THE WARMEST AND LEAST DRY SURFACE LAYER IN COMPARISON WITHTHE GFS AND ECMWF...IS VERIFYING PRETTY WELL...WHILE THE GFS ANDECMWF ARE QUITE A BIT TOO LOW WITH THE WET BULBS. OF COURSE...THISDOESN/T MEAN THAT THIS TREND WILL HOLD THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMINGEVENT...BUT IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH CLOSELY...SINCE THE NAMCONTINUES TO BE THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE MODEL IN PUSHING THE COLD/DRYSURFACE AIR SOUTHWEST. OVERALL...SAW VERY LITTLE REASON TO TINKERWITH THE CURRENT PUBLIC FORECAST PAST THE NEXT 6 HOURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 GFS is like... "why believe NAM?". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 See I knew the GFS would be the last model I needed to see . It went completely bonkers. But honestly if there isn't a changeover to sleet during the storm, those totals in the mtns might be doable... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I'm not going over 12-16" here in the foothills. Sleet has always surged north in recent historic snowstorms well up into southern VA. Boone and West Jefferson will likely go over 20" near the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Sleeting here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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