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4th Annual Fall/Winter Thread for the Mountains/Foothills


Met1985

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Euro ensemble hinting at a chance for something frozen to fall Sunday into Monday around WNC.  The model seems to be split on the track of the low pressure that will move through.  One scenario cuts it through the Ohio Valley while the other keeps it as a Gulf low and tracks it through the SE.  A few have some snow showers for the area as overrunning precip enters the area, while a few others are picking up on a tad bit of backside moisture.  First time I have seen the Euro ensemble this year showing trace amounts so that is encouraging, but don't get me wrong I am not saying this is certain.  The Euro ensemble has shown many wrong scenarios before and it will be wrong again in the future.  Just thought I would mention it for possible discussion.  At least we have something to watch on the models now..

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Euro ensemble hinting at a chance for something frozen to fall Sunday into Monday around WNC. The model seems to be split on the track of the low pressure that will move through. One scenario cuts it through the Ohio Valley while the other keeps it as a Gulf low and tracks it through the SE. A few have some snow showers for the area as overrunning precip enters the area, while a few others are picking up on a tad bit of backside moisture. First time I have seen the Euro ensemble this year showing trace amounts so that is encouraging, but don't get me wrong I am not saying this is certain. The Euro ensemble has shown many wrong scenarios before and it will be wrong again in the future. Just thought I would mention it for possible discussion. At least we have something to watch on the models now..

Yeah iv been watching the gfs around hour 180 to 200 with that big push of cold air we get some upslope snow possible. We shall see. Another cold morning with a low of 21 degrees.
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KGSP afternoon disco. Some of the upslope folks may get a few flakes this weekend.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...EXTENDED BEGINS DRY WITH WIDE UPPER TROUGH

DOMINATING THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY...AND A SHORTWAVE DIVING

INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS

IN PLACE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. AS THE

AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE SLIDES EAST...UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN

INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. WEAK ATTENDANT

SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AS WELL AND LIFTS FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI

VALLEY NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHEAST ONTARIO. LAST NIGHTS 00Z ECMWF

RUN WAS TRENDING QUITE A BIT WETTER WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE

BUT THE 12Z RUN IS MUCH CLOSER TO THE GFS. RESULTANT BLEND DOES

WARRANT SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS

SATURDAY EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT...LIFTING OUT BEFORE

SUNRISE. HOWEVER...COMPLICATION WITH THIS IS DEEP-LAYER CAA

WITH THE FRONT AND COOL HIGHS ON SATURDAY. SATURDAYS HIGHS WILL

BE IN THE MID 40S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND TIMING THE INCOMING

MOISTURE VERSUS FALLING TEMPERATURES /LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 20S

IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS SATURDAY NIGHT/ RESULTS IN AT LEAST

SOME CHANCE OF SNOW OR AT LEAST A RAIN/SNOW MIX. MOISTURE SHOULD

BE PRETTY SHALLOW BUT OROGRAPHIC LIFT FROM 10-15KT WNW WINDS WITH

GUSTS OVER 20KT WILL HELP LIFT THAT MOISTURE TO THE DENDRITIC SNOW

GROWTH ZONE. HAVE NOT ADDED ANY ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME.

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if we can get those 15-20kts winds to push moisture to the snow growth level then I can for sure see snow Saturday night at places like Beech but since this will be a cold chasing moisture situation.. I am caution that we will see anything more than a sprinkle in the valleys.  What has caught my eye this morning though is the OP Euro and what it did the past two runs with the Gulf low that passes by the south.  Yesterdays 12z run had the low around 600 miles off the SC coast while the 0z run early this morning pulled the low much closer to shore and actually has some precip over the middle of SC with temps in the upper 30's.  Meanwhile WNC is sitting in the mid 20's with precip 100 miles south.  With the Euro taking such a large shift overnight, it is something that bares watching, since last year every good snow we got, started out looking like the storm was going out to see 7 days out.  The main change in the Euro overnight appears to be less interaction with the gulf low as the northern low pulls out.  If that gulf low can hold strong and not feel influence from the LP to the north, and the NAO dips negative like some models suggest, we could be in business.  The GFS on the other hand sees a lot of interaction with two systems and is much more progressive with the storm right now.  I will be watching to see if the GFS begins to leave this system behind like the Euro, or continues to be much more progressive moving the LP out to sea a day and half before the Euro.  Lol that is a lot of what if's, but I felt like that is all we did last season and finally got one to work out for us.  Lets see if this ticks NW or bucks the trend from last year.

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More interaction this time between the cutoff to the north and the gulf low on the 12z euro so not as much moisture put over nc/sc. Man is it going to get cold next week though. It is interesting to see the Euro keep that LP off the coast of nc/sc for a few days. Lets hope we can get that to happen with one a little farther west this winter. Then we will really be in business.

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More interaction this time between the cutoff to the north and the gulf low on the 12z euro so not as much moisture put over nc/sc. Man is it going to get cold next week though. It is interesting to see the Euro keep that LP off the coast of nc/sc for a few days. Lets hope we can get that to happen with one a little farther west this winter. Then we will really be in business.

Yeah some interesting time this weekend before a warm thanksgiving.
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if we can get those 15-20kts winds to push moisture to the snow growth level then I can for sure see snow Saturday night at places like Beech but since this will be a cold chasing moisture situation.. I am caution that we will see anything more than a sprinkle in the valleys.  What has caught my eye this morning though is the OP Euro and what it did the past two runs with the Gulf low that passes by the south.  Yesterdays 12z run had the low around 600 miles off the SC coast while the 0z run early this morning pulled the low much closer to shore and actually has some precip over the middle of SC with temps in the upper 30's.  Meanwhile WNC is sitting in the mid 20's with precip 100 miles south.  With the Euro taking such a large shift overnight, it is something that bares watching, since last year every good snow we got, started out looking like the storm was going out to see 7 days out.  The main change in the Euro overnight appears to be less interaction with the gulf low as the northern low pulls out.  If that gulf low can hold strong and not feel influence from the LP to the north, and the NAO dips negative like some models suggest, we could be in business.  The GFS on the other hand sees a lot of interaction with two systems and is much more progressive with the storm right now.  I will be watching to see if the GFS begins to leave this system behind like the Euro, or continues to be much more progressive moving the LP out to sea a day and half before the Euro.  Lol that is a lot of what if's, but I felt like that is all we did last season and finally got one to work out for us.  Lets see if this ticks NW or bucks the trend from last year.

 

Yep it is going to snow in the normal NW upslope areas...extending from the Balsams to Beech.  Moisture starts out quite thick with rain slowly changing over to snow before ending in the highest elevations to the South and lingering longer near Beech.  I think maybe enough to turn the ground white?

 

Southern Jackson County got hit pretty hard in the last 24 hours with just over 6 inches of rain reported on the up slope mountain tops.

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