Hvward Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Holy cow, the quality of this video is incredible. I can tell you changed a few things from last year's timelapse! Sadly, I won't have time to put together my timelapse until break from school start in early December. Thanks man! I cant wait to see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Finished up my fall time-lapse of WNC today. Hope you guys enjoy! Awesome! Thanks for sharing!!!! Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Awesome! Thanks for sharing!!!! Sent from my iPad Thanks Strong! I really appreciate the kind words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Caught this around midday in SE Asheville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 13, 2015 Author Share Posted November 13, 2015 Caught this around midday in SE Asheville.Beautiful! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Winter arrived... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 15, 2015 Author Share Posted November 15, 2015 Cold morning! Low of 20 degrees this morning! that is more like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Euro ensemble hinting at a chance for something frozen to fall Sunday into Monday around WNC. The model seems to be split on the track of the low pressure that will move through. One scenario cuts it through the Ohio Valley while the other keeps it as a Gulf low and tracks it through the SE. A few have some snow showers for the area as overrunning precip enters the area, while a few others are picking up on a tad bit of backside moisture. First time I have seen the Euro ensemble this year showing trace amounts so that is encouraging, but don't get me wrong I am not saying this is certain. The Euro ensemble has shown many wrong scenarios before and it will be wrong again in the future. Just thought I would mention it for possible discussion. At least we have something to watch on the models now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 16, 2015 Author Share Posted November 16, 2015 Euro ensemble hinting at a chance for something frozen to fall Sunday into Monday around WNC. The model seems to be split on the track of the low pressure that will move through. One scenario cuts it through the Ohio Valley while the other keeps it as a Gulf low and tracks it through the SE. A few have some snow showers for the area as overrunning precip enters the area, while a few others are picking up on a tad bit of backside moisture. First time I have seen the Euro ensemble this year showing trace amounts so that is encouraging, but don't get me wrong I am not saying this is certain. The Euro ensemble has shown many wrong scenarios before and it will be wrong again in the future. Just thought I would mention it for possible discussion. At least we have something to watch on the models now..Yeah iv been watching the gfs around hour 180 to 200 with that big push of cold air we get some upslope snow possible. We shall see. Another cold morning with a low of 21 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Inversion has killed me here the last few days. Had a low of 42.3 yesterday. It's 48.2 now. Noticed that the top of Sugar mtn is at 50 this morning ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 16, 2015 Author Share Posted November 16, 2015 Inversion has killed me here the last few days. Had a low of 42.3 yesterday. It's 48.2 now. Noticed that the top of Sugar mtn is at 50 this morning !Lol wow that's crazy. We have been in the low 20s both mornings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 GFS is hinting at a possible light snow event for mountaintops next weekend. Winter is getting closer, y'all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 KGSP afternoon disco. Some of the upslope folks may get a few flakes this weekend. .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...EXTENDED BEGINS DRY WITH WIDE UPPER TROUGH DOMINATING THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY...AND A SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE SLIDES EAST...UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. WEAK ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AS WELL AND LIFTS FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHEAST ONTARIO. LAST NIGHTS 00Z ECMWF RUN WAS TRENDING QUITE A BIT WETTER WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT THE 12Z RUN IS MUCH CLOSER TO THE GFS. RESULTANT BLEND DOES WARRANT SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT...LIFTING OUT BEFORE SUNRISE. HOWEVER...COMPLICATION WITH THIS IS DEEP-LAYER CAA WITH THE FRONT AND COOL HIGHS ON SATURDAY. SATURDAYS HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND TIMING THE INCOMING MOISTURE VERSUS FALLING TEMPERATURES /LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 20S IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS SATURDAY NIGHT/ RESULTS IN AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF SNOW OR AT LEAST A RAIN/SNOW MIX. MOISTURE SHOULD BE PRETTY SHALLOW BUT OROGRAPHIC LIFT FROM 10-15KT WNW WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 20KT WILL HELP LIFT THAT MOISTURE TO THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE. HAVE NOT ADDED ANY ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 if we can get those 15-20kts winds to push moisture to the snow growth level then I can for sure see snow Saturday night at places like Beech but since this will be a cold chasing moisture situation.. I am caution that we will see anything more than a sprinkle in the valleys. What has caught my eye this morning though is the OP Euro and what it did the past two runs with the Gulf low that passes by the south. Yesterdays 12z run had the low around 600 miles off the SC coast while the 0z run early this morning pulled the low much closer to shore and actually has some precip over the middle of SC with temps in the upper 30's. Meanwhile WNC is sitting in the mid 20's with precip 100 miles south. With the Euro taking such a large shift overnight, it is something that bares watching, since last year every good snow we got, started out looking like the storm was going out to see 7 days out. The main change in the Euro overnight appears to be less interaction with the gulf low as the northern low pulls out. If that gulf low can hold strong and not feel influence from the LP to the north, and the NAO dips negative like some models suggest, we could be in business. The GFS on the other hand sees a lot of interaction with two systems and is much more progressive with the storm right now. I will be watching to see if the GFS begins to leave this system behind like the Euro, or continues to be much more progressive moving the LP out to sea a day and half before the Euro. Lol that is a lot of what if's, but I felt like that is all we did last season and finally got one to work out for us. Lets see if this ticks NW or bucks the trend from last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Rough morning in Avery County this morning. Everything socked in up in the clouds with rain and strong SE winds gusting over 50mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Winds have been ripping here this morning, had a tree down in my driveway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Steady moderate rain all last nite and this am already up to 1.97 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 More interaction this time between the cutoff to the north and the gulf low on the 12z euro so not as much moisture put over nc/sc. Man is it going to get cold next week though. It is interesting to see the Euro keep that LP off the coast of nc/sc for a few days. Lets hope we can get that to happen with one a little farther west this winter. Then we will really be in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 18, 2015 Author Share Posted November 18, 2015 More interaction this time between the cutoff to the north and the gulf low on the 12z euro so not as much moisture put over nc/sc. Man is it going to get cold next week though. It is interesting to see the Euro keep that LP off the coast of nc/sc for a few days. Lets hope we can get that to happen with one a little farther west this winter. Then we will really be in business.Yeah some interesting time this weekend before a warm thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Man it's pouring outside. All the creeks and river are bank full. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 19, 2015 Author Share Posted November 19, 2015 Man it's pouring outside. All the creeks and river are bank full.Man I bet you are getting hammered. Yeah rivers and creeks here are all way up tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 if we can get those 15-20kts winds to push moisture to the snow growth level then I can for sure see snow Saturday night at places like Beech but since this will be a cold chasing moisture situation.. I am caution that we will see anything more than a sprinkle in the valleys. What has caught my eye this morning though is the OP Euro and what it did the past two runs with the Gulf low that passes by the south. Yesterdays 12z run had the low around 600 miles off the SC coast while the 0z run early this morning pulled the low much closer to shore and actually has some precip over the middle of SC with temps in the upper 30's. Meanwhile WNC is sitting in the mid 20's with precip 100 miles south. With the Euro taking such a large shift overnight, it is something that bares watching, since last year every good snow we got, started out looking like the storm was going out to see 7 days out. The main change in the Euro overnight appears to be less interaction with the gulf low as the northern low pulls out. If that gulf low can hold strong and not feel influence from the LP to the north, and the NAO dips negative like some models suggest, we could be in business. The GFS on the other hand sees a lot of interaction with two systems and is much more progressive with the storm right now. I will be watching to see if the GFS begins to leave this system behind like the Euro, or continues to be much more progressive moving the LP out to sea a day and half before the Euro. Lol that is a lot of what if's, but I felt like that is all we did last season and finally got one to work out for us. Lets see if this ticks NW or bucks the trend from last year. Yep it is going to snow in the normal NW upslope areas...extending from the Balsams to Beech. Moisture starts out quite thick with rain slowly changing over to snow before ending in the highest elevations to the South and lingering longer near Beech. I think maybe enough to turn the ground white? Southern Jackson County got hit pretty hard in the last 24 hours with just over 6 inches of rain reported on the up slope mountain tops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Ended up gettin 5.67 inches from this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 19, 2015 Author Share Posted November 19, 2015 Ended up gettin 5.67 inches from this event.Lol matches up pretty well with what Mike just said. Yeah we have been very wet recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Looks like we have reasonable chance of flurries or a dust up on Saturday evening which will be first for the season. High Sunday above 5000' in the mid 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Ended up gettin 5.67 inches from this event. Rainforrest, what's your total for this year so far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 im at 69.70 inches for the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 im at 69.70 inches for the year. That seems like a relatively low total for your area in comparison to previous years. Drought must've been "bad" for you too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Yeah it was really dry this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 A dusting looks possible Sat night for the TN line and perhaps as far south as Cataloochee, with flurries elsewhere for SW NC. Looking forward to the winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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