NavarreDon Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I promise the Buncombe county folks if the storm verifies the way it's being modeled there will be no real losers! Will some areas within the county get more snow than others?......of course, but there is no way someone will be crying about getting 2" while someone else is giddy about a foot. This type of system won't allow it. There will be no Buncombe county snow hole. If there is I will gladly eat crow. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 http://www.weather.gov/images/gsp/brief/STSStormTotalSnow.png Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 Fellas buckle up! It's go time. Great discussion by everyone in here today. Iv been working all day. One thing to remember I think Tracker and Ward hit 9n is the winds are going to be a big factor with this heavy wet snow. This reminds me so much of December 2009. This is going to be a dangerous storm and people need to prepare now and not later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 http://www.weather.gov/images/gsp/brief/STSStormTotalSnow.png Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I still think that's a bit conservative but enough it should get people's attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Ended up with just under 3 inches today. Finally got to build the first snowman and have the first snowball fight of the year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 This looks like a classic WNC snowstorm, close enough track of the LP and upper low to maximize QPF. Could be a record breaker in some areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I still think that's a bit conservative but enough it should get people's attention.I agree but totally understand the reasoning. That call map will change many times. Most if not all NWS offices are going to start conservative & ramp it up as the event draws near. With that being said I've been honking this storm since Sunday & I'm confident that most of the Mnts are going to cash & cash big. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 I agree but totally understand the reasoning. That call map will change many times. Most if not all NWS offices are going to start conservative & ramp it up as the event draws near. With that being said I've been honking this storm since Monday & I'm confident that most of the Mnts are going to cash & cash big. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Yeah I agree. This will be one on the biggest winter weather makers in a few years to hit. Just sit back and watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 Ended up with just under 3 inches today. Finally got to build the first snowman and have the first snowball fight of the year!Nice man! I'm think my wife said we got two inches. The balsams got hammered. It's still snowing over them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 2" in Boone, still coming down lightly. Roads were a mess and many side roads still are a mess. I'll take my 24" the NAM is showing and check out please. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 No doubt. If needed it will be updated. Our WWA came out about 4 hours before it began to snow today. I agree but totally understand the reasoning. That call map will change many times. Most if not all NWS offices are going to start conservative & ramp it up as the event draws near. With that being said I've been honking this storm since Monday & I'm confident that most of the Mnts are going to cash & cash big.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 2" in Boone, still coming down lightly. Roads were a mess and many side roads still are a mess. I'll take my 24" the NAM is showing and check out please. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Lol there you go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 A nice over performer here today. Measured 4 inches and still have light snow falling. It came on top of the snow from the other day. Glad to see many get some. Even Mark squeezed out a flake or two. Let's talk timeline. Wlos said that it might not switch over to snow until Friday afternoon. So I take it that is when accumulations start ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 2 inches today and light snow still fallin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Jason Boyer doing a good job tonight. Much more aggressive. Really hyping the potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Nice man! I'm think my wife said we got two inches. The balsams got hammered. It's still snowing over them. Indeed! Webcams confirm the Balsams are getting nailed with 40 knots still slamming into the mountain side for a few more hours. Six inches was probably the right call. Snow will be waist deep if all the modeled QPF plus local enhancement from the next storm falls as snow up there. Really tough call on precip type for the Balsams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shack Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 2 inches today and light snow still fallin Rainforrest, Franklin, Glad to see ya'll getting in on the action. I'm thinking of trekkin' up to Highlands tomorrow. Precip maximum showing up around SW NC mtns on the NAM and GFS so I think we'll see a foot or better. Very curious to see how the winds howl up here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Jason Boyer doing a good job tonight. Much more aggressive. Really hyping the potential. The "potential" exists for nearly 20" of snow if it all pans out right. I'm pretty sure he would never say that. Even the EPS has a mean of 16". The lowest seems to be 12". I didn't watch WLOS, but I'm gonna bet he didn't touch these numbers. As for timing, we should be all snow by 12Z Friday. If WLOS is saying Friday afternoon, then that's incredibly misleading. Models are showing a stout wedge all day. Most of our snow is up front with not much backend snows. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Rainforrest, Franklin, Glad to see ya'll getting in on the action. I'm thinking of trekkin' up to Highlands tomorrow. Precip maximum showing up around SW NC mtns on the NAM and GFS so I think we'll see a foot or better. Very curious to see how the winds howl up here too. Note: Regarding winds...due to various temperature inversions, WAA, poor mixing etc..most of the wind energy will not reach to the ground including the higher elevations besides exposed high elevation ridge tops that will not be reachable in this upcoming storm. My ridge top tower at 6130 feet would be a great spot but the road there is already impassable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shack Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Note: Regarding winds...due to various temperature inversions, WAA, poor mixing etc..most of the wind energy will not reach to the ground including the higher elevations besides exposed high elevation ridge tops that will not be reachable in this upcoming storm. My ridge top tower at 6130 feet would be a great spot but the road there is already impassable. Well, with the 850s wrapping up as forecast it should at least make it interesting. My friends place in Highlands sits at only about 4900 ft, but I'm confident that snow will fall at an angle and not straight down for at least a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The "potential" exists for nearly 20" of snow if it all pans out right. I'm pretty sure he would never say that. Even the EPS has a mean of 16". The lowest seems to be 12". I didn't watch WLOS, but I'm gonna bet he didn't touch these numbers. As for timing, we should be all snow by 12Z Friday. If WLOS is saying Friday afternoon, then that's incredibly misleading. Models are showing a stout wedge all day. Most of our snow is up front with not much backend snows. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk He suprisingly mentioned the models showed those numbers. He didn't go all the way in, but he had 8-12 Avl with 12-18 from NE Buncombe up the spine. For being normally quite conservative, he did take the plunge pretty deep for him. He said snow starting by afternoon Friday, but could be much earlier. I am looking forward to your forecast HT. You nailed several last year. I like that you are excited by the potential !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Jason, I assume you will get your 6 He suprisingly mentioned the models showed those numbers. He didn't go all the way in, but he had 8-12 Avl with 12-18 from NE Buncombe up the spine. For being normally quite conservative, he did take the plunge pretty deep for him. He said snow starting by afternoon Friday, but could be much earlier. I am looking forward to your forecast HT. You nailed several last year. I like that you are excited by the potential !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 He suprisingly mentioned the models showed those numbers. He didn't go all the way in, but he had 8-12 Avl with 12-18 from NE Buncombe up the spine. For being normally quite conservative, he did take the plunge pretty deep for him. He said snow starting by afternoon Friday, but could be much earlier. I am looking forward to your forecast HT. You nailed several last year. I like that you are excited by the potential !!Yep I am to. HT has been rock solid the past few years that iv been on here. Always a treat to read his thoughts and opinions. Going to be a fun weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Jason, I assume you will get your 6 Ha! Ha! Well, you would think that curse has been beaten down Mark, but it is always lurking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Ha! Ha! Well, you would think that curse has been beaten down Mark, but it is always lurking. I think it's time to bury that curse & go all in! Good luck my friend I'll be rooting for you. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Yep I am to. HT has been rock solid the past few years that iv been on here. Always a treat to read his thoughts and opinions. Going to be a fun weekend. Thanks guys. Appreciate the kind words! Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I think it's time to bury that curse & go all in! Good luck my friend I'll be rooting for you. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I am strangely optimistic for a change. Thanks for the good thoughts Don. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thekendog Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Whose doing pow laps with me at Sugar and Beech Friday/Saturday?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 I think it's time to bury that curse & go all in! Good luck my friend I'll be rooting for you. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Don wish you where up here bud. Its just not the same man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Don wish you where up here bud. Its just not the same man. Agreed !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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