NavarreDon Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I'm liking the trends on the models for a lot of you folks. Still a ways to go & heartbreak always looms but, I am pretty optimistic about this one! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I'm liking the trends on the models for a lot of you folks. Still a ways to go & heartbreak always looms but, I am pretty optimistic about this one! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Same here. GFS is caving to Euro and we're just 100 miles ULL SE shift away from getting hit by deformation band, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Same here. GFS is caving to Euro and we're just 100 miles ULL SE shift away from getting hit by deformation band, too.upper low did shift south a lot. I would like to see it go thru north georgia and hopefully the euro will hold serve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 upper low did shift south a lot. I would like to see it go thru north georgia and hopefully the euro will hold serve. Agree with you. That's exactly what Canadian model just did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 If it could get better the euro is slower and digs deeper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Bye-bye civilization after this Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 Bye-bye civilization after this Friday.Lol hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 How's everyone here in the mountains and foothills feeling? I haven't seen these types of numbers that the EURO is spitting out for my backyard (20 inches +) since the 90's. Gonna be a wild week with no sleep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Agree with you. That's exactly what Canadian model just did just saw the euro do this too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 GFS still drops 6" of snow at KAVL, CMC gives us 11" and Euro give us 20". Lets just call it a day at 10" and I will be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 GFS still drops 6" of snow at KAVL, CMC gives us 11" and Euro give us 20". Lets just call it a day at 10" and I will be happy. Agreed! Double digits would do just fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Thing is, we are only 48 hours from the start of this event. Models remain at odds, but my bets are on the EPS. This gives AVL 16" of heavy, tree-snapping snow. Could be quite ugly around here. A messy week for school busses too with today's system to boot. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Very snowy morning in the Balsams already. Looks like six inches should fall in the next 24 hours in the highest elevations . Guidance has come in wetter so perhaps some higher totals are possible on the ridges favored by cloud levels winds howling at 55 knots out of the SW. QPF totals almost always outperform in these type of setups but the same mechanism is very drying towards Asheville. Since orographics are involved..this type of snow setup will be very elevation dependent. Also, the lowest levels are rather dry so lower elevations will experience a lot of virga today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Got snow here in downtown currently. Parking lots are already slick. Today could be a pretty dangerous day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonhowl Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Just noticed the flakes falling in Asheville myself and share your concern; don't think it will take much to turn it into a skating rink out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Thing is, we are only 48 hours from the start of this event. Models remain at odds, but my bets are on the EPS. This gives AVL 16" of heavy, tree-snapping snow. Could be quite ugly around here. A messy week for school busses too with today's system to boot. Agreed, this event could be extremely dangerous for WNC. I can remember snows like these in the past and then hearing about some people in Mitchell and Madison counties that lost power and didn't have it returned for 3 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I may have to retract my statement about an inch being a huge win in Asheville. Ground is already getting covered around Tunnel Rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Just noticed the flakes falling in Asheville myself and share your concern; don't think it will take much to turn it into a skating rink out there.Agree Moonhowl. I for one don't have 4wd so I may be looking for a ride home this afternoon ha.My mom tells me it isn't even hardly snowing over in Candler. Haha gotta love living in WNC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Yeah, today's event is already over-performing a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Snow here too. Thought maybe only higher elevations were going to get it first but just talked to friend in Bald Creek and he said he had moderate snow. They're at about 2200 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I honestly didn't expect to see but a couple of flurries today but it has actually been snowing non stop, albeit with tiny flakes, for about 30 minutes now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Morning folks, congrats on the snow! Be safe & keep the obs coming. Just to give you a little idea of the ever changing Fri-Sat. storm from a different perspective. Two days ago our forecast high for Sat was 63°. This morning our forecast high for Sat. is 48°! That will be one of the coldest days for a high temp in my time down here. Look even though anything can happen because you still live in the South. It's becoming more & more apparent that their is going to be some type of winter precip & more than likely a good bit of it. While most of you are seasoned winter weather vets I will still remind you not to get caught off guard. Get your essentials whatever they ma be (yes Joe I know you have them! ~) while you can. You may only have a small window left. Sorry for the rant but i hate to see someone get stuck without something they need. Good luck guys but at this point I really don't think it's a question of if but more of what type & how much. Fun times & thanks for letting me come along for the ride!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 Good stuff fellas. Tracker it's hard to go against the eps. Yeah snowing here also. Very slick out. Going to be a fun day. Be safe fellas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I may have to retract my statement about an inch being a huge win in Asheville. Ground is already getting covered around Tunnel Rd. The downsloping winds don't kick in till this afternoon so if the dry air has already been overcome by precip..nothing really to stop it from it continuing for several hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Snow has begun in Boone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 12 Z NAM came in drier for today's snow. (Looks very healthy on radar however.) Tomorrow night...pounds the Balsams with very heavy snow/great orographic enhancement due to the 40 knot 850 mb SW wind flow as a CAD develops all the way SW past Jackson County. It might change to a mix by 15Z at ridgetop as the winds increase further to has much as 60 knots but more out of the SSW at cloud level but remaining SE below the ridge line. It changes back to snow by 0Z. Note: The sun is suddenly out in the Balsams with a brief break before the main area of precip arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 12z nam absolutely crushes the mountains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 12z nam absolutely crushes the mountains The 12Z center of mayhem is where I grew up near Front Royal, Virginia/Shenadoah National Park with totals near 40". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The 12Z center of mayhem is where I grew up near Front Royal, Virginia/Shenadoah National Park with totals near 40".I was actually born and have family in Harrisonburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I was actually born and have family in Harrisonburg. I was thinking about a storm chase to the mountains near Front Royal to help my parents out there but have a rather busy schedule already planned not to mention my tires on my Outback are rather worn and not really up for extreme Winter driving. That area historically has picked up snows of similar magnitude due to its favorable location next to the Blue Ridge(which captures the moist Easterly winds) and it would be no surprise to me if that area ends up being ground zero for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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