SnoJoe Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 First things first. It's cold! It's 4.7 here at 9 pm. Had a high today of 17.2 with wind all day long. By far the most brutal day to date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 It's kinda funny not being on the front lines anymore. No more highs that are to high & lows that are to low. Take a deep breath fellas model hugging will run you right off the cliff! This thing is not even going to be properly sampled till it comes ashore tomorrow. Lots of changes to come. For some of you that were here think back to the Christmas 2010 storm. For those of you who weren't. I suggest you go back and read the discussion threads for a history lesson on model madness! Enjoy the ride guys it's part of the fun! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 It's kinda funny not being on the front lines anymore. No more highs that are to high & lows that are to low. Take a deep breath fellas model hugging will run you right off the cliff! This thing is not even going to be properly sampled till it comes ashore tomorrow. Lots of changes to come. For some of you that were here think back to the Christmas 2010 storm. For those of you who weren't. I suggest you go back and read the discussion threads for a history lesson on model madness! Enjoy the ride guys it's part of the fun! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Great post Don! Very true! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 It's kinda funny not being on the front lines anymore. No more highs that are to high & lows that are to low. Take a deep breath fellas model hugging will run you right off the cliff! This thing is not even going to be properly sampled till it comes ashore tomorrow. Lots of changes to come. For some of you that were here think back to the Christmas 2010 storm. For those of you who weren't. I suggest you go back and read the discussion threads for a history lesson on model madness! Enjoy the ride guys it's part of the fun! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk But you miss it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Great post Don! Very true!looks like Wednesday will be our best bet for snow. Unless we can get some big changes with the Friday system a low cutting into Tennessee or north ga will flood the mid levels with warm air. Hopefully we can get something down the line but watching low elevations in Virginia get 200-300% of climo year after year gets old. Heck, I think NE north Carolina has more snow all of the mtn posters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 What fun would it be if we knew what was going to happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 But you miss it too. Hahaha! Of course I do Joe but, there is a certain sense of comfort knowing I'm not in the game at all. I can also drown my sorrows with a walk on the beach which is nice. I aspire to be like you though and do both!!! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 What fun would it be if we knew what was going to happen?Lol true. That's the fun or the drive you crazy in all this. Well on the plus side it's freaking cold! Current temp is 7 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Everyone in wait mode. Rays weather still thinks a significant snow is doable but rain or mixing Friday will cut into totals. ECMWF ensembles still putting out average of 18" for NW Mountains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Snowing in Boone again, have a nice coat on everything. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Snowing in ashe as well. Oz euro gave me 22 inches. But def. Wait and see mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 Nice guys. We have blowing snow here with a few clouds. It is cold! Had a low of 4 degrees. I'm pretty excited about tomorrows event especially here in the southern mountains. Could see a couple of inches with the ground frozen things should still easily. As this weekend goes it looks like the further north you are the better you are. Oh well. Maybe next month for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Looking at latest NAM/NAM12..Balsam Mts will get nailed tomorrow. Winds will be screaming out of the WSW at 60 mph at cloud level producing locally great orthographics while immediately downwind areas may get very little. Easily 6" plus. My guess, locally for the Balsams at least, tomorrow's storm will likely outperform Friday/Saturday's storm. Friday's storm will mostly be for the NW upslope areas near the TN line or for Boone and points to the NE. Note that some of the local QPF hot spots are over 1" precip tomorrow on some of the ridges which may translate into a lot of snow. http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=NAM-4km&p=accqpf&rh=2016011906&fh=60&r=rv&dpdt= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Lol not what I was getting at. I was talking about the 18z and the euro. It's one run with many to come. Both models where awful last week with yesterday's storm. This pattern is so wild with so much energy it is hard for them to grab hold of just one solution. Don't get sucked into one run just yet. Yes the gfs has been consistent and that says a lot but the Euro is the euro So it needs to be paid attention to also. All options still on the table. As for me I'm looking forward to a couple of inches come Wednesday and Wednesday night. Sorry I hate texting, writing ect. I'm a face to face person lol I knew what you meant. I was talking more for my area, but last night's euro definitely has me interested would like to see the trends continue. I din't post back then but remember that rollercoaster event very well Christmas 2010. Matt East had a good video out this morning he leaning slightly with the euro. I'm on phone or would give y'all a link. Just look up Carolina weather on you tube. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 Sorry I hate texting, writing ect. I'm a face to face person lol I knew what you meant. I was talking more for my area, but last night's euro definitely has me interested would like to see the trends continue. I din't post back then but remember that rollercoaster event very well Christmas 2010. Matt East had a good video out this morning he leaning slightly with the euro. I'm on phone or would give y'all a link. Just look up Carolina weather on you tube.Lol no problem and yeah I'm a face to face guy also. At least we gave something to track. This system is very interesting and I still think all is on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Lol no problem and yeah I'm a face to face guy also. At least we gave something to track. This system is very interesting and I still think all is on the table. Yep the CAD sig that is showing up is very unique. Come down straight from Boone into Asheville instead of from the Piedmont. Like you said, everything still on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 After seeing the GEFS, I don't think I'm gonna sleep until saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Euro drops 20" at KAVL. Give me half and lets call it a day. But for real guys, this one will be dangerous no matter what the p-type as long as its frozen. Now is the time to begin to prepare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 Euro drops 20" at KAVL. Give me half and lets call it a day. But for real guys, this one will be dangerous no matter what the p-type as long as its frozen. Now is the time to begin to prepare.Yeah I could see heavy wet snow to a mix then back to heavy snow with good upslope coming in from the deformation band coming from TN. Lots of wind also. This could ,could be a very dangerous storm. Its hard to go against the euro at this time. To me it's been more consistent than the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Euro drops 20" at KAVL. Give me half and lets call it a day. But for real guys, this one will be dangerous no matter what the p-type as long as its frozen. Now is the time to begin to prepare. Too much of a model shift to be taken seriously unless the 0z run also shows it. The 12Z GFS certainly didn't show the shift South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Too much of a model shift to be taken seriously unless the 0z run also shows it. Agree. Shortwave is about to start coming onshore in Pacific NW and they'll start data-collecting it this afternoon. We'll see what 0z runs got for us tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Too much of a model shift to be taken seriously unless the 0z run also shows it. The 12Z GFS certainly didn't show the shift South. The 12z UKIE looked very similar at 500 to the 12z EURO. Most ensemble guidance is south of the op (GFS, GEM). I understand the concern, but overall trends are really good for you guys! Best of luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The 12z UKIE looked very similar at 500 to the 12z EURO. Most ensemble guidance is south of the op (GFS, GEM). I understand the concern, but overall trends are really good for you guys! Best of luck. Depending on what snow ratio one uses...the latest Euro drops 3 feet plus on Richmond. Being that the highest seasonal snowfall total in Richmond's history is 35.6", I am inclined to think the latest Euro is out to lunch and will likely shift back to a more traditional Northern Virginia target.(and hence a shift of the heavy snow out of most of NC) Still, stranger things have happened to be sure. I still think tomorrow's sleeper of a storm will give a nice dump on the Balsams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Too much of a model shift to be taken seriously unless the 0z run also shows it. The 12Z GFS certainly didn't show the shift South.So we go with the GFS which is on an island? Euro has shown the low not cutting the past 3 runs and has incredible ensemble support. I mean gosh guys I know it wiffed on the past storm, but you cant discount what it is showing because the GFS happened to get the past storm correct. I was worried when CAD looked marginal, but today all models are trending colder and our source for CAD looks to be adequate for snowfall. Euro caved to the GFS at day 3 last week. Here we are at day 2.5 and the Euro is still holding strong while the GFS and its ensembles still cant decide if it will cut up the apps or into the south. I have to give the Euro more weight here because most of its ensembles have supported the previous OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Depending on what snow ratio one uses...the latest Euro drops 3 feet plus on Richmond. Being that the highest seasonal snowfall total in Richmond's history is 35.6", I am inclined to think the latest Euro is out to lunch and will likely shift back to a more traditional Northern Virginia target. Still, stranger things have happened to be sure. I still think tomorrow's sleeper of a storm will give a nice dump on the Balsams. This track on the Euro wasn't much different then what it has shown the past 2 runs with the low. HP spots change a tad, but its not like this past run was just out of the blue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Preston's forecast map for tomorrow's event: http://www.localyokelweather.com/photo.php?table=photo&mode=search&archived=false&photo=372 Has 2 to 3" for the Balsams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 This track on the Euro wasn't much different then what it has shown the past 2 runs with the low. HP spots change a tad, but its not like this past run was just out of the blue. To add to the model discussion from the Mid Atlantic thread. PREFERENCE: 12Z NAM/UKMET/ECMWF BLEND CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE A WELL DEVELOPED SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE PACIFIC COAST NEAR THE OR/CA BOARDER WITH A LARGER SCALE BROADER NORTHERN STREAM TROF TRAILING IT AND FORECAST TO COME ASHORE OR/WA. OVERALL THE MODELS ARE QUITE AGREEABLE WITH THE TIMING/EVOLUTION OF THE TWO FEATURES INTO A LARGER DEEP CYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND SHIFTING EASTWARD TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND IS WELL REPRESENTED IN RELATIVELY SMALL SPREAD IN THE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS BY DAY 3. THE 12Z CMC REMAINS THE MAIN OUTLIER BEING THE FASTEST AND GENERALLY NARROWEST OF THE WAVE BY DAY 3 HOWEVER HAS TRENDED A BIT SLOWER THAN ITS 00Z RUN INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z GFS...THOUGH MAINLY AT 5H...AS THE CMC REMAINS FAST WITH THE SURFACE COASTAL LOW/7H AND IS VERY COLD AT IN THE THERMAL FIELDS COMPARATIVELY) TO KEEP IT OUT OF THE PREFERENCES. SYNOPTICALLY (MASS FIELDS) THERE IS FAIRLY STRONG CONFIDENCE OVERALL. HOWEVER...INTERNAL DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT OF THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW AS WELL AS THERMAL GRADIENTS RESULT IN SPREAD IN THE IMPACTS (PARTICULARLY SNOW/ICE/QPF)...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST QPFHSD AND QPFPFD FOR THESE FINER DETAILS. INTERNALLY SPEAKING...THE 12Z NAM IS QUITE STRONG WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW AND IS GENERALLY CENTRAL TO THE OVERALL MODEL SPREAD ALONG THE CENTRAL KY/TN BOARDER BY THE END OF DAY 3. AS SUCH THIS ALLOWS THE NAM TO BE A BIT SLOWER AND WEAKER TRANSFERRING ENERGY TO THE COASTAL LOW. THE 12Z GFS HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH PRIOR RUNS AND IS ON THE FASTER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SHIFTING TOWARD E KY/S WV BY DAY 3...WHICH SEEMS A BIT OUT OF PLACE DEEPENING INTO MORE CONFLUENT DOWNSTREAM FLOW AT THIS TIME PERIOD. TO FURTHER QUESTION THE 12Z GFS...THE 12Z UKMET FOLLOWED BY THE 12Z ECMWF TRENDED A BIT SOUTHWEST WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY BY DAY 3. TO FURTHER COMPOUND ISSUES WITH THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS...THE 12Z GEFS IS MORE CENTRAL AND QUITE AGREEABLE WITH THE 12Z ECENS MEAN AND 12Z NAM. THIS BUILDS SOME INCREASED CONFIDENCE MOVING TOWARD A UKMET/ECMWF/NAM BUT REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD WHILE THE GFS IS ON THE NORTHEAST. AS SUCH SUPPORT A 12Z GEFS/00Z ECENS MEAN BLEND WHICH APPEARS BEST REPRESENTED BY THE 12Z NAM/UKMET/ECMWF BLEND. AS CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL SYSTEM/UPPER LOW IS HIGH BUT SPREAD IN INTERNAL WAVES/UPPER LOW CENTROID DIFFERENCES IS LESSER SO... OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS AVERAGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Agree. Shortwave is about to start coming onshore in Pacific NW and they'll start data-collecting it this afternoon. We'll see what 0z runs got for us tonight. I think this is less of an issue that it used to be. Satellite ingest is rather good now as satellite data has been upgraded over the years. That being said, Euro is still superior at satellite ingest than others. I'd say the model solution won't change much even after it has been sampled by the RAOB network. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I think this is less of an issue that it used to be. Satellite ingest is rather good now as satellite data has been upgraded over the years. That being said, Euro is still superior at satellite ingest than others. I'd say the model solution won't change much even after it has been sampled by the RAOB network. Per Model discussion/early ensembles..think the heavy snowfall is placed too far to the SW. Per this Euro Map..should be clear that even a modest adjustment back to the NE will drastically lower snowfall locally. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_01_2016/post-962-0-49426000-1453228758.jpg Should be fun to see how this turns out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 Yeah either way this is an interesting system and should be watched closely. But yes any further south or north would mean big implications for us in the mountains. This is a complicated system with many features to it so change to change model runs are a given. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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