FlatLander48 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 And the Big Snowmam on the Horizon? Yea I made a post in banter about the big snowman. Forgot what it looked like lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Have a feeling this weekend is gonna be a mixed bag for us in the lower elevations of the mountains but up near Boone/Banner Elk we should see quite a storm! Still time for it to trend South but it is nice to finally have something real to track just a few days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The temp is currently 1 on the top of newfound gap. Wind is ridiculous! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The closer you are to the mix/rain line the heavier your totals will be. It's nerve racking to see it play out but it's like being at the casino, go big or go home! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I hate stupid CAD storms. They are extremely difficult to predict for this area and one valley always seems to get snow when another that is 5 miles west stays all rain. Talk about disappointment. I have an erie feeling that is what is going to happen here. Sure 2m and 850mb temps look good now but we have been here before guys and have seen this story unfold. We look good all over WNC for a few backside inches, but I am afraid we are going to miss a big dog by 1-2 degrees. I think Boone cashes in but Asheville will be stuck in a cold rain to sleet type mix. I hate it and I hate to say all this but I blew a forecast 2 years ago badly in a setup like this. I am really hoping for a surprise but I am having a hard time getting too excited because CAD always leaves us on the outside looking in here in WNC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 12z GFS KTNB Boone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I deleted my post about the GFS from earlier. someone showed me a map of some other model and said it was the GFS until I actually looked into it. Looks good for the area. Maybe since I'm NE of boone I can eek out a little more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Have a feeling this weekend is gonna be a mixed bag for us in the lower elevations of the mountains but up near Boone/Banner Elk we should see quite a storm! Still time for it to trend South but it is nice to finally have something real to track just a few days out. Knock on wood, but I've seen us get snow while Asheville got rain with these CAD type events. I'm wishcasting here but I think it's possible. It happened in 2014 got 4in when it was all rain past ridgecrest west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Thanks man! That's looking north towards a local range called the cherry mountains. Even better with snow! Is that came creek Mtn in the background near the McDowell Rutherford line? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 I hate stupid CAD storms. They are extremely difficult to predict for this area and one valley always seems to get snow when another that is 5 miles west stays all rain. Talk about disappointment. I have an erie feeling that is what is going to happen here. Sure 2m and 850mb temps look good now but we have been here before guys and have seen this story unfold. We look good all over WNC for a few backside inches, but I am afraid we are going to miss a big dog by 1-2 degrees. I think Boone cashes in but Asheville will be stuck in a cold rain to sleet type mix. I hate it and I hate to say all this but I blew a forecast 2 years ago badly in a setup like this. I am really hoping for a surprise but I am having a hard time getting too excited because CAD always leaves us on the outside looking in here in WNC.Yeah this seems about right. Will be great for the northern mountains as it looks currently but a screw job down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 Knock on wood, but I've seen us get snow while Asheville got rain with these CAD type events. I'm wishcasting here but I think it's possible. It happened in 2014 got 4in when it was all rain past ridgecrest west.Yep that could happen. I would say all is on the table at the moment. Just depends on how strong the high is to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I hate stupid CAD storms. They are extremely difficult to predict for this area and one valley always seems to get snow when another that is 5 miles west stays all rain. Talk about disappointment. I have an erie feeling that is what is going to happen here. Sure 2m and 850mb temps look good now but we have been here before guys and have seen this story unfold. We look good all over WNC for a few backside inches, but I am afraid we are going to miss a big dog by 1-2 degrees. I think Boone cashes in but Asheville will be stuck in a cold rain to sleet type mix. I hate it and I hate to say all this but I blew a forecast 2 years ago badly in a setup like this. I am really hoping for a surprise but I am having a hard time getting too excited because CAD always leaves us on the outside looking in here in WNC. So... you feeling better after that Euro run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 So... you feeling better after that Euro run? Hahaha 100% better, wow this could be epic for WNC man. As long as we don't have to rely on CAD to get snow I am good ha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Hahaha 100% better, wow this could be epic for WNC man. As long as we don't have to rely on CAD to get snow I am good ha!I think we're still gonna have to rely on it but it looks good anyway now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 This past weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I think we're still gonna have to rely on it but it looks good anyway now. Well with the low running to our south instead of over top of us, there isn't as much of a warm nose so CAD wouldn't be what is sustaining the cold column of air. We wouldn't have a big battle between warm air advection and cold air advection. Without the upper levels being warm, CAD only helps up out because it isn't fighting against warm 850mb temps. Hope that makes since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Well with the low running to our south instead of over top of us, there isn't as much of a warm nose so CAD wouldn't be what is sustaining the cold column of air. We wouldn't have a big battle between warm air advection and cold air advection. Without the upper levels being warm, CAD only helps up out because it isn't fighting against warm 850mb temps. Hope that makes since. I completely understand what your saying. I just don't think the track is gonna be that perfect. I still believe the storm is gonna push farther north than the really southern track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 Hahaha 100% better, wow this could be epic for WNC man. As long as we don't have to rely on CAD to get snow I am good ha!Yep if we just get cold all of WNC will score but hang on this is Monday. Still a long ways to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 I completely understand what your saying. I just don't think the track is gonna be that perfect. I still believe the storm is gonna push farther north than the really southern track.All depends on the high to the north. Too soon to say one thing or another. I like the trend of the Euro though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Yep if we just get cold all of WNC will score but hang on this is Monday. Still a long ways to go. Yep and only 1 euro run so it is nothing to bet the farm on, but I would rather bet on the euro then anything else. Despite the fact that it moved this weekends low 500 miles within 3 days. Always something to keep in mind haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 Yep and only 1 euro run so it is nothing to bet the farm on, but I would rather bet on the euro then anything else. Despite the fact that it moved this weekends low 500 miles within 3 days. Always something to keep in mind haha.Yep it is. This is the way it should be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Nice ensemble support for the 12Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 18z puts about 5-6 down for the NW mountains. kinda brought a sad tear to my eye, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 O and it also rains more than other runs. Fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 Lol its over! Don't get sucked into one run or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Yeah I agree with ya met I think we'll be luck to see a little mix to start then rain. Oh well probably go down as the worst winter on record. My family's from hot springs, Madison county. My grandmother and I were talking about how when she was little the ground would turn white in the middle of November and stay white til March, good ole days. I truly believe in global warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Yeah I agree with ya met I think we'll be luck to see a little mix to start then rain. Oh well probably go down as the worst winter on record. My family's from hot springs, Madison county. My grandmother and I were talking about how when she was little the ground would turn white in the middle of November and stay white til March, good ole days. I truly believe in global warming.You killed my vibe lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 We might have to settle for wrap around flow to get something more than a dust up... Still should be largest of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 Yeah I agree with ya met I think we'll be luck to see a little mix to start then rain. Oh well probably go down as the worst winter on record. My family's from hot springs, Madison county. My grandmother and I were talking about how when she was little the ground would turn white in the middle of November and stay white til March, good ole days. I truly believe in global warming.Lol not what I was getting at. I was talking about the 18z and the euro. It's one run with many to come. Both models where awful last week with yesterday's storm. This pattern is so wild with so much energy it is hard for them to grab hold of just one solution. Don't get sucked into one run just yet. Yes the gfs has been consistent and that says a lot but the Euro is the euro So it needs to be paid attention to also. All options still on the table. As for me I'm looking forward to a couple of inches come Wednesday and Wednesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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