WxBlue Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Damn decimal points. I like to be precise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Not a bad forecast I don't think. Some areas were in your forecast range. I was a little low, but still had a 1/2 inch or so. I appreciate you giving a forecast. On another note, Don Southerland posted this. "Today's AO is -4.916. That's the lowest figure since March 22, 2013 when the AO was -5.240" I guess it has helped, but not in the way we want. Don also notes that this would normally suggest a blocky Feb., but there are conditions present that may make this not happen, which wouldn't surprise me the way the winter has gone. Thank you! Looks like some NWFS will be possible through the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 Thank you! Looks like some NWFS will be possible through the evening. Yeah clouds have moved back in temps dropping and wind is cranking. Also it's snowing again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Hopefully this will actually pan out: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 It's going to get cold! Wind chill advisory for the mountains with some snow tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Yeah clouds have moved back in temps dropping and wind is cranking. Also it's snowing again! Same here. Nice little burst now. My temp has gone from 29.3 to 25.4 in the last couple of hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 The way upstream looks I would not be surprised if we got some snow later tonight. Not a lot but maybe up to half an inch in some places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Not sure the term to use for what's it's been doing the last few hours but id call it "misting snow" heavy very fine flakes. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 You're right Met upstream does look good. I am impressed by the 12z ESP members. 16 of them with 10"+ for the Friday storm. I am curious how much of this is ice. Who knows, this one will have tons of energy and could trend into a wopper storm here in WNC that would drop mega paste bombs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 as expected Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Nice view Mark...would look even better with snow!The lay of the land in the NC Mountains and Foothills just can't be beat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Nice view Mark...would look even better with snow!Thanks man! That's looking north towards a local range called the cherry mountains. Even better with snow! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 Just like that I get home from church and we have light snow falling and the good forcing is not even here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Just like that I get home from church and we have light snow falling and the good forcing is not even here. Me too. Just had a nice shower come through and it dusted the snow over pretty good. I don't think a flake melted today. Radar looks decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 Me too. Just had a nice shower come through and it dusted the snow over pretty good. I don't think a flake melted today. Radar looks decent.was just going to post I looked outside and everything is covered up again with moderate snow. Temp down to 21 degrees and the radar looks great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Nice hefty dusting here in Boone and it's coming down pretty good. Parking lot is solid white too Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Moderate snow shower here in Candler. Was on the way home and took Patton Ave. and there was heavy snow falling, the ground was white and it was sticking to the roads. Like you said Met flow is good and some could pick up .5"-1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Moderate snow shower here in Candler. Was on the way home and took Patton Ave. and there was heavy snow falling, the ground was white and it was sticking to the roads. Like you said Met flow is good and some could pick up .5"-1". Yeah, same thing's happening on UNCA campus. I'm impressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 Yeah will keep yall posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 Some of the foothills may get in on this also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 Nice hefty dusting here in Boone and it's coming down pretty good. Parking lot is solid white too Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Yep a nice surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Another good inch to 2 inches this evening with the NW Flow snow showers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Will be close Friday GFS ECMWF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Well GSP has their eyes on the Friday storm! If I was up there I would be getting a wee bit excited! .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...AT 4 AM MONDAY...A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THEFORECAST AREA DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A BROAD 1027 MB SFC HIGH IS FORECAST TO SPREADACROSS THE MID APPALACHIAN REGION BY 12Z THURS. LOW TEMPERATURESEXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE FORECASTAREA. TO THE WEST...RAPID CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED OVER THE ARKLATXAROUND DAYBREAK THURS. THURSDAY...MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITHA WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS CWA...SUPPORTING INCREASING POPSTHROUGH THE DAY...PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON. BASED ON THETEMPERATURE FORECAST...I WILL FORECAST GENERALLY A COLD RAIN ONTHURSDAY. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS COULD SEE LIGHT SN ACCUMS DURINGTHE MORNING HOURS...MELTING LATER IN THE DAY.AN IMPRESSIVE MILLER TYPE-A SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHTTHROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE 0Z ECMWF AND GFS INDICATESTRONG 290K ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING EARLY FRIDAYMORNING...PEAKING AROUND 18Z FRIDAY...LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGIONDURING THE REGION. AT THE MID LEVELS...Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILLSTRENGTHENING OVERHEAD AS A SHARP...NEARLY CLOSED OFF...H5 TROFRIPPLES OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. IN ADDITION...THE GFSINDICATES THAT A BAND OF SFC CAPE MAY DEVELOP ON THE BACK EDGE OFTHE DEEP FORCING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALEFORCING...LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW...AND PWS AROUND AN INCH HAS CREATEDSEVERAL CONCERNS.FIRST...GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A BAND OF MODERATETO HEAVY PRECIP WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT DURINGTHE DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY. HIGH RATES AND HEAVY QPF COULD YIELD ANEXCESSIVE RAINFALL EVENT THREAT ACROSS THE I-85 CORRIDOR...THAT ISIF THE PRECIP FALLS IN LIQUID FORM.SECOND...TEMPERATURES FRI MORNING RE FORECAST TO RANGE IN THE 30SACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE STRENGTHOF COLD AIR DAMMING IS UNDER ESTIMATED WITHIN THE ECMWF AND GFS. IWILL FAVOR COOLER GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...REMAINING IN THE 30S ACROSSTHE NRN MTNS AND EAST ACROSS THE I-40 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON.BASED OF FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES AND SFC TEMPS...SNOW...MODERATETO HEAVY AT TIMES...IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS AND NRN MTNSTHROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...YIELDING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMS.THIRD...FRIDAY NIGHT THE SFC LOW WILL TRACK NE ALONG THE ATLANTICCOAST AS THE CENTER OF THE H5 LOW MOVES OVER THE MTNS. H85 WINDSWILL INCREASE FROM THE NW AND TEMPS WILL COOL TO -3C TO -8C ACROSSTHE NC MTNS. ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD INCREASE AND CONTINUE THROUGHTHE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...FRIDAY TEMPS WILLFALL WELL INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE MTNS...WITH FREEZING POSSIBLE EASTACROSS THE I-85 CORRIDOR...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD BLACK ICE. THERAIN...SNOW...AND BLACK ICE WILL BE ADDED TO THE HWO. CONDITIONSWILL DRY AND REMAIN COOL THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Love the Miller A wording. For folks like me below 2000' in the foothills, this is what it will,take to ensure something other thana mix or rain. Well GSP has their eyes on the Friday storm! If I was up there I would be getting a wee bit excited! .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AT 4 AM MONDAY...A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A BROAD 1027 MB SFC HIGH IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE MID APPALACHIAN REGION BY 12Z THURS. LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TO THE WEST...RAPID CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED OVER THE ARKLATX AROUND DAYBREAK THURS. THURSDAY...MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS CWA...SUPPORTING INCREASING POPS THROUGH THE DAY...PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST...I WILL FORECAST GENERALLY A COLD RAIN ON THURSDAY. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS COULD SEE LIGHT SN ACCUMS DURING THE MORNING HOURS...MELTING LATER IN THE DAY. AN IMPRESSIVE MILLER TYPE-A SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE 0Z ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE STRONG 290K ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...PEAKING AROUND 18Z FRIDAY...LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION DURING THE REGION. AT THE MID LEVELS...Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL STRENGTHENING OVERHEAD AS A SHARP...NEARLY CLOSED OFF...H5 TROF RIPPLES OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. IN ADDITION...THE GFS INDICATES THAT A BAND OF SFC CAPE MAY DEVELOP ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE DEEP FORCING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING...LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW...AND PWS AROUND AN INCH HAS CREATED SEVERAL CONCERNS. FIRST...GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY. HIGH RATES AND HEAVY QPF COULD YIELD AN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EVENT THREAT ACROSS THE I-85 CORRIDOR...THAT IS IF THE PRECIP FALLS IN LIQUID FORM. SECOND...TEMPERATURES FRI MORNING RE FORECAST TO RANGE IN THE 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE STRENGTH OF COLD AIR DAMMING IS UNDER ESTIMATED WITHIN THE ECMWF AND GFS. I WILL FAVOR COOLER GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...REMAINING IN THE 30S ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND EAST ACROSS THE I-40 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON. BASED OF FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES AND SFC TEMPS...SNOW...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES...IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS AND NRN MTNS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...YIELDING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMS. THIRD...FRIDAY NIGHT THE SFC LOW WILL TRACK NE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AS THE CENTER OF THE H5 LOW MOVES OVER THE MTNS. H85 WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NW AND TEMPS WILL COOL TO -3C TO -8C ACROSS THE NC MTNS. ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD INCREASE AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...FRIDAY TEMPS WILL FALL WELL INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE MTNS...WITH FREEZING POSSIBLE EAST ACROSS THE I-85 CORRIDOR...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD BLACK ICE. THE RAIN...SNOW...AND BLACK ICE WILL BE ADDED TO THE HWO. CONDITIONS WILL DRY AND REMAIN COOL THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Like Bill, I picked up another inch in the flow. It's cold! It's 5.3 now with a stiff wind. Looks like some fun coming this week. 'Bout Time !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Like Bill, I picked up another inch in the flow. It's cold! It's 5.3 now with a stiff wind. Looks like some fun coming this week. 'Bout Time !!! Joe, if i was you I would make sure I was stocked up on essentials! You're in a great spot for some fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 Yeah i picked up about a quarter inch. Just way to windy. Cold for sure. Has a low of 7 myself. We do awful in cold air damming events so hope the middle and northern mountains enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Finally got it down sub zero Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 And the Big Snowmam on the Horizon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Images from mountain-forecast.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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