franklin NCwx Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...THE FCST BECOMES TRICKY AND PROBLEMATIC FROM MID-WEEK ONWARD AS WE WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH TWO SYSTEMS...AN INITIAL ONE MAINLY DOMINATED BY MID/UPPER FORCING ON WEDNESDAY... AND A FOLLOW-UP ONE DURING THE LATE WEEK THAT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT. AS USUAL...UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS DUE TO RAPIDLY INCREASING ENSEMBLE SPREAD BEYOND WEDNESDAY. ON THE ONE HAND...THERE SEEMS TO BE A TREND WITH A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WHICH SUGGESTS LESS OF A P-TYPE ISSUE. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GEFS PLUME DIAGRAMS FOR THIS FCST CYCLE ACTUALLY SHOW MORE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH A FREEZING OR FROZEN P-TYPE. WITH THE TREND IN THE GFS...THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER OR HEAVY RAIN OVER THE PIEDMONT IS STARTING TO CREEP UP WHILE THE POSSIBILITY OF A WINTER STORM DECLINES. IN SPITE OF OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE...IT SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT MOST OF THE REGION WILL NOT HAVE ENOUGH COLD AIR AS THE LOW MOVES PAST FOR ANYTHING OTHER RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ELEVATIONS ABOVE ABOUT 4K FEET...WHERE THERE STILL REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF TEMP PROFILES COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW...AND MAYBE LOTS OF IT. HAVE WARMED TEMPS ON THURSDAY NIGHT BY SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION BASED ON THE WARM ADVECTION SEEN IN THE 00Z GFS...WHICH HAS CUT BACK QUITE A BIT ON THE WINTER PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS/MTNS. COLD AIR SHOULD EVENTUALLY FILTER IN BEHIND THE LOW ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...SO THERE IS DECENT CONFIDENCE FOR NEXT WEEKEND THAT WE WILL SEE A PERIOD OF NW FLOW UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ON THE TN BORDER. FOR THE TIME BEING...WILL NOT MENTION ANY OF THIS IN THE HWO. unfortunately the euro is a few degrees too warm at 850 for most of the mtns. Hopefully that will trend colder going forward. I would like to see a bigger high building in and we would need an earlier phase to send the surface low thru the coastal plain. I'm hoping this one works out, the euro ensemble mean continues to creep up and is now at 6" for both events next week in Franklin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Send me a note. Try not to get stuck up there...help will likely be very expensive! will do if it's looking good in a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 Bought time it looks like winter. About an inch and a half and still snowing. Good call Ward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Pretty much all rain here in Marion for this "event" not excited about our chances moving forward, think a shutout is more than 50% likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 Had some very light snow at 630 but it has since stopped. Nothing on the ground and ground is not even wet.Dang franklin we are covered here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 unfortunately the euro is a few degrees too warm at 850 for most of the mtns. Hopefully that will trend colder going forward. I would like to see a bigger high building in and we would need an earlier phase to send the surface low thru the coastal plain. I'm hoping this one works out, the euro ensemble mean continues to creep up and is now at 6" for both events next week in Franklin. Definitely not a slam dunk but the pieces are there for a decent event. Have to watch the trends and see what happens. One thing for sure is this is the closest the Mnts have been to decent snow this winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Dang franklin we are covered here.was hoping to at least tho a few snowballs but not enough moisture with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Just measured a little over an inch here with light snow still falling. I guess I can finally update my signature to one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Definitely not a slam dunk but the pieces are there for a decent event. Have to watch the trends and see what happens. One thing for sure is this is the closest the Mnts have been to decent snow this winter!it's very far out so a lot can change and I hope it does. It won't take a lot to make it work but things so far this winter just don't seem to be working out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 Bought time it looks like winter. About an inch and a half and still snowing. Good call Ward.Actually about an inch so far with light snow officially. I like the look of the euro. Hopefully a trend a little colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 Just measured a little over an inch here with light snow still falling. I guess I can finally update my signature to one.Nice Joe the same here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Just measured a little over an inch here with light snow still falling. I guess I can finally update my signature to one.is that all you have for this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Decent snow falling here in Southern McDowell County. Nice to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 is that all you have for this winter? Yes. I've had two or three dustings but that's it. I average around 60 a year and here I'm at 1 and it's Jan. 17. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 is that all you have for this winter?I think so. He has been shutout like we have. This is a sucktastic winter so far. Maybe even worst than 2011/12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 Decent snow falling here in Southern McDowell County. Nice to see.Nice man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 Yes. I've had two or three dustings but that's it. I average around 60 a year and here I'm at 1 and it's Jan. 17.Yeah scew the strongest Nino ever! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Yes. I've had two or three dustings but that's it. I average around 60 a year and here I'm at 1 and it's Jan. 17.not even a dusting here this year, it's getting pretty bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I think so. He has been shutout like we have. This is a sucktastic winter so far. Maybe even worst than 2011/12. You're right Met. I just looked back at that winter and I had 18 inches by now. Horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 finally broke into all snow. Makes sense as it is pulling out Use to low totals here in the winter. Know it sucks for you mountain boys. Keep the faith alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 You're right Met. I just looked back at that winter and I had 18 inches by now. Horrible.Yep I had 14 inches by this time. The past 5 years we have had only 1 decent year at or close to average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 finally broke into all snow. Makes sense as it is pulling out Use to low totals here in the winter. Know it sucks for you mountain boys. Keep the faith alive. Nice man! Enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Bought time it looks like winter. About an inch and a half and still snowing. Good call Ward. Thanks Met I was a little to high in most areas and missed the SW part of WNC but glad some of you guys are seeing snowflakes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Nice Joe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Nice Joe. How'd you make out ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 How'd you make out ? as expected Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Thanks Met I was a little to high in most areas and missed the SW part of WNC but glad some of you guys are seeing snowflakes! Not a bad forecast I don't think. Some areas were in your forecast range. I was a little low, but still had a 1/2 inch or so. I appreciate you giving a forecast. On another note, Don Southerland posted this. "Today's AO is -4.916. That's the lowest figure since March 22, 2013 when the AO was -5.240" I guess it has helped, but not in the way we want. Don also notes that this would normally suggest a blocky Feb., but there are conditions present that may make this not happen, which wouldn't surprise me the way the winter has gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 We did alright on UNCA campus. Got around .6-.75", I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 We did alright on UNCA campus. Got around .6-.75", I believe. Damn decimal points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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