McDowell_Weather Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Good looking map ward I think Marion to lenior will see 1-3 especially if we can get some Lee side enhancement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Thanks guys! Yeah I agree I was a little conservative on the foothills. 1-2 degrees will make a big difference, I really hope you guys stay cold enough. This storm is just now getting going in the Gulf and you can already see the baroclinic leaf maturing over The TX/OK border. Looks to be in very close position to where it had been modeled setting up and it could be a tad bit north. The Gulf Low should explode over the next 6 hours. Hopefully we can get enough precip on the cold side to where we can all cash in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 233 PM EST SAT JAN 16 2016 ...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT... .AN UPPER SHORTWAVE AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. IN RESPONSE...MOISTURE ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE LOW...AIDED BY UPPER SUPPORT FROM SAID SHORTWAVE...WILL COMBINE WITH THERMAL PROFILES COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOWFALL AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECTING RAIN EARLY ON BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW SHORTLY THEREAFTER AS COOLER AIR AND MOISTURE WORK DOWN THROUGH THE COLUMN. ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOWFALL ALONG THE HIGHER PEAKS AND RIDGETOPS WILL MEET AND OR EXCEED ADVISORY CRITERIA. NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062-170330- /O.NEW.KGSP.WW.Y.0001.160117T0700Z-160117T1700Z/ AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM- NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BANNER ELK...NEWLAND...MARS HILL... MARSHALL...HOT SPRINGS...BURNSVILLE...SPRUCE PINE...BRYSON CITY... WAYNESVILLE...CANTON...LAKE JUNALUSKA...ROBBINSVILLE... CULLOWHEE...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...HIGHLANDS 233 PM EST SAT JAN 16 2016 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO NOON EST SUNDAY ABOVE 3500 FEET... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ABOVE 3500 FEET FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO NOON EST SUNDAY. * LOCATIONS...ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FEET OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. * HAZARDS...ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG WITH PATCHY FREEZING RAIN IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. ANY FREEZING RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW IN THE VALLEYS THROUGH THE MORNING. * TIMING...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BY EARLY MORNING AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...THEN AROUND MID MORNING IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF UP TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHEST PEAKS AND RIDGETOPS...WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 1 INCH POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. * IMPACTS...SNOW WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S. * WINDS...NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Just slipped into the twenties (28.9) so don't think temps will be an issue here, just hope the moisture pans out. What time are the best rates expected to fall ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 16, 2016 Author Share Posted January 16, 2016 Good stuff Ward! I like the map. Joe I think early in the morning is our best rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Around 6 to 8 am per the HRRR Looks to be a quick mover in and out in 3 hours or less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Just slipped into the twenties (28.9) so don't think temps will be an issue here, just hope the moisture pans out. What time are the best rates expected to fall ? Per latest HRRR, 6z for start of flurries...9z for decent snow..with a couple hour variation depending on location in WNC. Note..for your location..HRRR has very low QPF...the maximum is in the Balsams as only 0.1. NAM 12 is more generous with a 2 inches likely on your mtn. Which will be right? Model wind direction shows light winds at cloud base out of NW suggesting TN line solution but wind just above out of wsw suggesting Balsam mtn solution. Will see which solution verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Not liking the trends of the short range models for the mountains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 It's go time. Screw the models. It's going to do whatever it's going to do. I would not be surprised if we got blanked lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 It's go time. Screw the models. It's going to do whatever it's going to do. I would not be surprised if we got blanked lol. Haha yep nowcast time! Who cares what happens there are more chances down the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 Haha yep nowcast time! Who cares what happens there are more chances down the line.Exactly. Time to watch the radar and see what transpires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I already forecasted up to 1" for UNC Asheville campus on Twitter. Doesn't look like a bad call based on short-range models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 I already forecasted up to 1" for UNC Asheville campus on Twitter. Doesn't look like a bad call based on short-range models.No not at all. Safe bet hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 What's up fellas? Good luck on the current event. The one I have my eye on is the Friday Saturday 1/22-1/23 situation. A long way off but there's potential for it to be the one you have been waiting for. I'll be pop in to give some thoughts. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Surprisingly, I've had some occasional flurries for the past hour. Temps down to 26.2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 What's up fellas? Good luck on the current event. The one I have my eye on is the Friday Saturday 1/22-1/23 situation. A long way off but there's potential for it to be the one you have been waiting for. I'll be pop in to give some thoughts. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Agree. GFS/Euro had this current minor event for 5-6 days, so why not look forward to this upcoming Friday? Few models are going with Miller A look, so we'll have to see. I like how GEFS sided with Euro's idea of Miller A tonight, though. EDIT: Also, that northwest flow look pretty decent Wednesday. Euro hit NE TN pretty good with 2-4" based on 10:1 ratio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 Snow is starting to fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Glad to see you getting some flakes Met. I'm patiently waiting lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Snow is starting to fall. Nice Met! I am up early to see a few flakes too. Nothing just yet over near UNCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Light snow falling in N Asheville now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Very light snow in Old Fort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Light snow in Marion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 waiting on the lower level to drop temp. Light rain now. Light snow in Marion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Moderate snow here with an inch on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Had some very light snow at 630 but it has since stopped. Nothing on the ground and ground is not even wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Little less than one inch in the Balsams per webcams with the snow almost over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Looks like a decent snow coming down on the Wolf Ridge base cam. http://www.skiwolfridgenc.com/web_cams.php?camera=lower_lodge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Little less than one inch in the Balsams per webcams with the snow almost over.I might have to get the gate code from you for the event next friday. As of now it's looking like rain below 5000'. The light event Wednesday might drop a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I might have to get the gate code from you for the event next friday. As of now it's looking like rain below 5000'. The light event Wednesday might drop a few inches. .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...THE FCST BECOMES TRICKY AND PROBLEMATIC FROM MID-WEEK ONWARD AS WE WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH TWO SYSTEMS...AN INITIAL ONE MAINLY DOMINATED BY MID/UPPER FORCING ON WEDNESDAY... AND A FOLLOW-UP ONE DURING THE LATE WEEK THAT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT. AS USUAL...UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS DUE TO RAPIDLY INCREASING ENSEMBLE SPREAD BEYOND WEDNESDAY. ON THE ONE HAND...THERE SEEMS TO BE A TREND WITH A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WHICH SUGGESTS LESS OF A P-TYPE ISSUE. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GEFS PLUME DIAGRAMS FOR THIS FCST CYCLE ACTUALLY SHOW MORE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH A FREEZING OR FROZEN P-TYPE. WITH THE TREND IN THE GFS...THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER OR HEAVY RAIN OVER THE PIEDMONT IS STARTING TO CREEP UP WHILE THE POSSIBILITY OF A WINTER STORM DECLINES. IN SPITE OF OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE...IT SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT MOST OF THE REGION WILL NOT HAVE ENOUGH COLD AIR AS THE LOW MOVES PAST FOR ANYTHING OTHER RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ELEVATIONS ABOVE ABOUT 4K FEET...WHERE THERE STILL REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF TEMP PROFILES COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW...AND MAYBE LOTS OF IT. HAVE WARMED TEMPS ON THURSDAY NIGHT BY SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION BASED ON THE WARM ADVECTION SEEN IN THE 00Z GFS...WHICH HAS CUT BACK QUITE A BIT ON THE WINTER PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS/MTNS. COLD AIR SHOULD EVENTUALLY FILTER IN BEHIND THE LOW ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...SO THERE IS DECENT CONFIDENCE FOR NEXT WEEKEND THAT WE WILL SEE A PERIOD OF NW FLOW UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ON THE TN BORDER. FOR THE TIME BEING...WILL NOT MENTION ANY OF THIS IN THE HWO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I might have to get the gate code from you for the event next friday. As of now it's looking like rain below 5000'. The light event Wednesday might drop a few inches. Send me a note. Try not to get stuck up there...help will likely be very expensive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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