Met1985 Posted January 13, 2016 Author Share Posted January 13, 2016 18z looks ok but less amped. Still not sold on anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 14, 2016 Author Share Posted January 14, 2016 As I said yesterday this is why I was not overly excited. At this point in time I see nothing to get excited about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I was talking with Chris Simmons and he pretty much threw in the towel. I'm like cmon. Even if it's not likely we still have a lot of variables at play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 As I said yesterday this is why I was not overly excited. At this point in time I see nothing to get excited about.I wouldn't rule out 1-2" from overrunning/precip. I think we see flakes from this one. I also think some see snowflakes late Friday night into Saturday morning. Such doom and gloom, at least we have a chance to see snow showers over the next 5 days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I wouldn't rule out 1-2" from overrunning/precip. I think we see flakes from this one. I also think some see snowflakes late Friday night into Saturday morning. Such doom and gloom, at least we have a chance to see snow showers over the next 5 days! Not to be overlooked..just took a brief look at the 12 NAM and soundings for tomorrow. It suggests at least the potential for 1/2 foot of wet snow for the highest elevations (6000 feet?) of the Balsams tomorrow. NAM 4Km is wetter but a little warmer. If one were take Route 215 North out of Balsam Grove around Noon tomorrow..the very top of the pass(5400 feet) might be close to the snowline. (The Blue Ridge Parkway of course will be closed.) Hopefully, somebody here with nothing better to do will drive up there to document the event.(It isn't as if there has been or will be very many opportunities for a decent storm this season!) If it ends up being nothing more than a drenching rain with fog up there..well weather forecasting isn't exactly an exact science now is it? Sounding: http://climate.cod.edu/hanis/model/fsound/index.php?type=12|NAM|SE|850|temp|27|*132,143*|ml|severe Note the ridge tops are at about 800 mb. It appears they will be at or below freezing at elevation through the column going up. The winds will be gusting at 40 mph just to make it a little more interesting up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 The long range isnt looking too hot either... This winter is turning out to be as bad or worse than 2011-12.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 14, 2016 Author Share Posted January 14, 2016 The long range isnt looking too hot either... This winter is turning out to be as bad or worse than 2011-12..Lol yep bit still a long ways to go. As the above mentioned a little better opportunity for us in the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 This will go down as one of the worst winters ever in terms of snowfall. I guarantee it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 This will go down as won of the worst winters ever in terms of snowfall. I guarantee it. That would go against what has happened in the past the vast majority of the time when we have had the +PNA and -AO/-NAO combo. Of course, it seems we don't know what we need to get us a good winter anymore, so you might be right. It just seems like a crap shoot the past few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Rather have a bad pattern with a 50/50 shot of cold meeting moisture than having a "perfect" pattern that doesn't produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 14, 2016 Author Share Posted January 14, 2016 Meh not disappointed at all because we have seen this before. I like the idea of a relaxed pattern and a reload of sorts into February. We could see some upslope snow here but not a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Meh not disappointed at all because we have seen this before. I like the idea of a relaxed pattern and a reload of sorts into February. We could see some upslope snow here but not a lot. I mean there is going to definetly be more snow especially at the state line, but I honestly don't think the pattern is gonna reload to where we want it to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 14, 2016 Author Share Posted January 14, 2016 I mean there is going to definetly be more snow especially at the state line, but I honestly don't think the pattern is gonna reload to where we want it to be.Can't be no worst than what we have which is nothing. Still a lot of time left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Time to live vicariously with you all; because, a change of altitude brings a change in attitude. Friday night looks like a good ending, all things considered. Should be a break after daytime rain ends. Believe sticking to accumulating upslope snow will fall in the favored areas Friday night. Might not be much, but it will be a consolation for the main system. Next the Mountains should eek out some snow Saturday night with a weak vort max coming out of the Mid South. Main system is buried though. Said vort max is responsible for influencing the main system south and positive tilt. However, looks like enough lift and moisture to bring light snow to the mountains. Finally Tuesday or Wednesday a couple waves slide through but it is 6-7 days out. First one is plenty cold but weakens on the way. Second has some WAA so track will be more important. Regardless, snow making and ski conditions will be excellent after cold air settles in this weekend through much of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Not to be overlooked..just took a brief look at the 12 NAM and soundings for tomorrow. It suggests at least the potential for 1/2 foot of wet snow for the highest elevations (6000 feet?) of the Balsams tomorrow. Sounding: http://climate.cod.edu/hanis/model/fsound/index.php?type=12|NAM|SE|850|temp|27|*132,143*|ml|severe WPC now highlighting a very slight chance for => 4" of snow from Sugar Mountain to Little Switzerland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 WPC now highlighting a very slight chance for => 4" of snow from Sugar Mountain to Little Switzerland.That's actually pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Not to be overlooked..just took a brief look at the 12 NAM and soundings for tomorrow. It suggests at least the potential for 1/2 foot of wet snow for the highest elevations (6000 feet?) of the Balsams tomorrow. NAM 4Km is wetter but a little warmer. If one were take Route 215 North out of Balsam Grove around Noon tomorrow..the very top of the pass(5400 feet) might be close to the snowline. (The Blue Ridge Parkway of course will be closed.) Hopefully, somebody here with nothing better to do will drive up there to document the event.(It isn't as if there has been or will be very many opportunities for a decent storm this season!) If it ends up being nothing more than a drenching rain with fog up there..well weather forecasting isn't exactly an exact science now is it? Sounding: http://climate.cod.edu/hanis/model/fsound/index.php?type=12|NAM|SE|850|temp|27|*132,143*|ml|severe Note the ridge tops are at about 800 mb. It appears they will be at or below freezing at elevation through the column going up. The winds will be gusting at 40 mph just to make it a little more interesting up there. Nice write up Mike! Would love to see somewhere get 6"+. I think snow levels will drop early Saturday AM and give Asheville at least a few flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Euro ensemble mean looks pretty good for next Friday, strong miller a signal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 All in on next friday! All three global ensembles line-up for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 15, 2016 Author Share Posted January 15, 2016 Lol well looks like we are back on for the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Lol well looks like we are back on for the weekend. What you talking 'bout Willis ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 15, 2016 Author Share Posted January 15, 2016 What you talking 'bout Willis ?There was a decent storm that was being modeled about a day ago by the gfs but then lost the storm way south but tonight it has come back north a lot. It looks like we have a chance at seeing some snow Sunday through Monday. Also Joe watch out Saturday for some upslope snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 NAM sounding this morning still shows a marginally cold enough profile for a period of very heavy snow in the highest elevations(5500 feet +) of the Balsam mtns later today...with models coming in wetter..up to a foot possible? I don't see this mentioned in the NWS forecast discussion however so I guess they are discounting the possibility. It certainly looks like wet bulbing will knock the temps down to freezing during the period of more intense precipitation. I haven't bothered to look at other models. The SPC Meso analysis page temps look inline with NAM soundings at the moment.Too bad I'm not up on the mountain top today to see if this verifies. The access road is still open as somebody made it up there a couple a days ago with only a little snow on the ground at the top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 NAM sounding this morning still shows a marginally cold enough profile for a period of very heavy snow in the highest elevations(5500 feet +) of the Balsam mtns later today...with models coming in wetter..up to a foot possible? I don't see this mentioned in the NWS forecast discussion however so I guess they are discounting the possibility. It certainly looks like wet bulbing will knock the temps down to freezing during the period of more intense precipitation.what's the gfs showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I haven't seen much entailing a heavy snow at all for the highest peaks. But I'm not sure if anyone really knows what's gonna happen today or Sunday lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I haven't seen much entailing a heavy snow at all for the highest peaks. But I'm not sure if anyone really knows what's gonna happen today or Sunday lol. The only way to analyze what will happen at this elevation is to run the models through bufkit and read the 800mb line. That is what Mike is doing and extrapolating values to infer p-type. No model is going to show snow at 5000', but if the NAM is correct, the column with be frozen for a period of time above 850mb with UVV pushing moisture into the dendritic growth level of the atmosphere. Thus forming flakes that do not encounter an area of above freezing temps on their fall large enough to produce full melt. Good analysis Mike! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I had a few flurries in my headlights on the way to work this morning! Lol Warm nose will take care of that though soon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 The only way to analyze what will happen at this elevation is to run the models through bufkit and read the 800mb line. That is what Mike is doing and extrapolating values to infer p-type. No model is going to show snow at 5000', but if the NAM is correct, the column with be frozen for a period of time above 850mb with UVV pushing moisture into the dendritic growth level of the atmosphere. Thus forming flakes that do not encounter an area of above freezing temps on their fall large enough to produce full melt. Good analysis Mike! Yep. You guys are a lot smarter than me when it comes to that stuff lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I had a few flurries in my headlights on the way to work this morning! Lol Warm nose will take care of that though soon! And boy what a warm nose! 850 down is piping this morning.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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