McDowell_Weather Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Here's the thing. It might be around the corner but I pretty much guarantee we won't have a chance of a GOOD snow til FEB at the earliest. We done better last year with a crappy pattern if we don't pick up the pace in the next two weeks I'll be shocked. An you could very well be right about February. We got some decent blocking trying to take hold and a souped up stj it wouldn't take much for alot on the board to get a paste job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 You nailed it in the first sentence. I don't care about the right pattern if nothing comes with. Rather a warm snow than a cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Had some fun on the Parkway today (outside of getting into a bit of a snowy/icy mess near Mount Mitchell and Craggy). Quite a bit of snow in some places and some nice ice formations. Can't wait till we get a real storm around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 6, 2016 Author Share Posted January 6, 2016 Had some fun on the Parkway today (outside of getting into a bit of a snowy/icy mess near Mount Mitchell and Craggy). Quite a bit of snow in some places and some nice ice formations. Can't wait till we get a real storm around here. Very nice! What a turn around we have had in practically in a week. It's about time. Yesterday morning was the first time the ground has been solidly frozen. No big system showing up yet but I like the cold air that the euro is showing. It will come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Cold enough for my well to freeze last night. Of course not putting in new insulation this fall didn't help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Westmc, that's one of my favorite routes up the parkway to Mt.Mitchell. I normally go up NC80/Buck creek I love the curves. I read an article several years back triple A had NC80 as one of the ten worst roads on the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 You nailed it in the first sentence. I don't care about the right pattern if nothing comes with. Rather a warm snow than a cold rain. Well I'm sorry I'm such an optimistic person. With all the doom an gloom I find it better to keep a positive attitude. I'm a realist but sometimes especially with snow I try to stay optimistic especially after the torch DEC,an now the pattern is trying to flip. I put no merit in OP models past D5. D10+ fantasy storms isn't my fancy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Guys I think we'll finish average/above for the season. We're just getting a late start. I think a nice big storm is right around the corner with possibly a few more to come. I know we're used to some NWF starting in late Oct go early Nov but I think we're getting ready to make up for it! #Funtimesawait Perhaps for the lower elevations where even a single large storm can make the season average/above average. As for the mountains...it will be very hard to make even average at this point. Places like LeConte, Mt. Mitchell, Beech average around 90 to 110 inches of snow a season and only a couple of inches have fallen so far. The outlook for the rest of January doesn't look very good. Probably a 50% chance that no more than a few more inches will fall. Hence, basically an entire Winter's worth of snow will have to fall in February/March just to reach even. This is doubly disappointing compared to earlier forecasts of up to 200% of normal snowfall...or a staggering 200" in the highest elevations. In any case, nice to have a few optimists around! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Don't be sorry for being optimistic. I'm usually a very optimistic person when it comes to snow. But I'm very cautious this time around after last season. If we didn't get the one big dog it would have been a complete dud of a season. Which is what might happen this season if we don't get a big one. Clippers aren't gonna save us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 May not mean much but the GFS showed some signs of something interesting here next week, albeit light stuff. Hmmmm... Y'all feeling it? The models have been too inconsistent to get anything out of one model run but after more than a month of nothing showing on the models it is fun to at least see snow again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 I've stopped looking at the models. I'm gonna wait until someone says there's potential within 3 days. Pretty much no reason to look at models past that with the way they've handled everything so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Perhaps for the lower elevations where even a single large storm can make the season average/above average. As for the mountains...it will be very hard to make even average at this point. Places like LeConte, Mt. Mitchell, Beech average around 90 to 110 inches of snow a season and only a couple of inches have fallen so far. The outlook for the rest of January doesn't look very good. Probably a 50% chance that no more than a few more inches will fall. Hence, basically an entire Winter's worth of snow will have to fall in February/March just to reach even. This is doubly disappointing compared to earlier forecasts of up to 200% of normal snowfall...or a staggering 200" in the highest elevations. In any case, nice to have a few optimists around! Agree with you Mike on the fact that the high peaks may not reach those projected totals, but I am curious as to why you think January doesn't look good? I like the teleconnections that look to be setting up and think they favor WNC for snowfall. The Euro is advertising a NWFS Monday, a clipper system mid week, and a possible Gulf Low with cold air in place next weekend(EPS). It appears we are getting into a more active snow pattern, and I would think that some higher elevation areas (especially near Boone) would do decent with a clipper system. Just trying to pick your brain a little bit man, thanks for providing us with your knowledge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Agree with you Mike on the fact that the high peaks may not reach those projected totals, but I am curious as to why you think January doesn't look good? I like the teleconnections that look to be setting up and think they favor WNC for snowfall. The Euro is advertising a NWFS Monday, a clipper system mid week, and a possible Gulf Low with cold air in place next weekend(EPS). It appears we are getting into a more active snow pattern, and I would think that some higher elevation areas (especially near Boone) would do decent with a clipper system. Just trying to pick your brain a little bit man, thanks for providing us with your knowledge. I like to look at multiple runs of the CFS which appears to be pretty good at suggesting general trends for a month period if looked at as an ensemble. It shows very few storms affecting Western NC for the rest of the month. It does show various NW flow events but probably they will be on the dry side as there simply isn't much evidence that significant storms will be tracking up the Ohio Valley(or the coast) that leave lots of residual moisture in place for the cold air to act on. (A dry Ohio Valley would be typical of El Nino) Contributions from the Lakes themselves this season appear to consistently being limited by low inversion heights and hence shallow moisture profiles and it wouldn't surprise me that trend will continue. The GFS does suggest that the modest storm that tracks through Michigan this coming weekend will throw back some moisture for a few inches along the TN line. Even if the NW flow events overperform..it is doubtful they can do anything more than achieve average without some coastal storms thrown in the mix. They also tend to affect only a rather small amount of mountain real estate. (For instance, my mountain will get very modest benefit from NW flow events and receives the lion's share of snowfall from other types of weather systems as does much of the mountains away from the TN line.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Brad Panovich (@wxbrad) 1/6/16, 23:09 Skiers rejoice on the back side of the arctic front Sunday. Nice northwest flow event. #wncwx #skinc pic.twitter.com/jOxSnCLvSE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Brad Panovich (@wxbrad) 1/6/16, 23:09 Skiers rejoice on the back side of the arctic front Sunday. Nice northwest flow event. #wncwx #skinc pic.twitter.com/jOxSnCLvSE Yep, models have been showing this for a few days now. I posted about it Tuesday. Moisture seems to be increasing on the GFS so we will see. Looks like we have 3 shots to see flakes next week. Sunday NWF, Wednesday clipper-type, and then a possible gulf low next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Yeah I should have worded that a little better. I completely agree about the higher elevations. I think average to slightly above may be possible in the valley's and foothills. But our snowfall averages are nowhere near the 3500ft and above totals. I remember 09/10 Newland,Avery county had 36in on the ground in late Jan. I've seen and got pictures will try and post later of 20 to 30 ft drifts on Roan Mtn. I have no idea what the base was I'm 6ft2 and it would have swallowed me whole. Beautiful scenery thou, elevations above 5500ft are a whole other universe. Especially on the TN line. Thank goodness for a powerstroke lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Not a blip on the radar but some pretty good snow showers in Graham County at the moment! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I'll be skiing sunday night at sugar so hopefully they'll get 1-2 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neatlburbwthrguy Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Are there any areas near Cherokee, NC that get snow from NWF events? I am considering driving up from Atlanta sunday morning for the day to Cherokee for 2 of my favorites....blackjack and snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Are there any areas near Cherokee, NC that get snow from NWF events? I am considering driving up from Atlanta sunday morning for the day to Cherokee for 2 of my favorites....blackjack and snow...soco gap on hwy 19 between cherokee and maggie valley is a great spot. It's about 20 minutes from the casino. If you have time to drive and they keep the rd open newfound gap on 441 is a great spot too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Are there any areas near Cherokee, NC that get snow from NWF events? I am considering driving up from Atlanta sunday morning for the day to Cherokee for 2 of my favorites....blackjack and snow... Newfound Gap usually is one of the first roads to close during NWF events and that is right near Cherokee so I think you will be in luck if you try and head up towards Clingman's Dome! Hope you enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neatlburbwthrguy Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 soco gap on hwy 19 between cherokee and maggie valley is a great spot. It's about 20 minutes from the casino. If you have time to drive and they keep the rd open newfound gap on 441 is a great spot too. Newfound Gap usually is one of the first roads to close during NWF events and that is right near Cherokee so I think you will be in luck if you try and head up towards Clingman's Dome! Hope you enjoy! Great suggestions guys, thanks! I will head up to newfound gap as long as road is open. hoping to see some light snow sunday along with a few blackjacks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 So the 18z put a tear into my eye. so beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 First time this winter that something has shown up: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 That something is pretty significant. Maybe...Just maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 First time this winter that something has shown up: Oh I just noticed, that is some serious cold for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 8, 2016 Author Share Posted January 8, 2016 Oh I just noticed, that is some serious cold for next week.Yeah my take for this at the moment is let's get the cold sustainable then get some good storms. The pattern has changed no matter what people say. Is it conducive for a big storm ah that's the million dollar question but I like where we are headed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 What are everyone's thoughts on the Sunday NWFS and the clipper mid week? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 The little event sunday won't amount to much. The midweek clipper is a little more interesting. I think we can squeeze out 3-5 for the higher peaks. But I haven't looked into it all that much yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 The little event sunday won't amount to much. The midweek clipper is a little more interesting. I think we can squeeze out 3-5 for the higher peaks. But I haven't looked into it all that much yet. NWF will be pretty stout. Moisture continues to increase on the GFS for this event. Wouldn't be surprised to see advisories for the TN/NC border Co.'s. Might get 3" or so at Beech. I also think we see flakes here in the French Broad River Valley on Sunday afternoon. Historically clipper systems for anywhere below 3000' doesn't produce much accumulation, but I think a dusting is certainly possible. Higher elevations could get 3"+ Tuesday night into Wednesday. Guys we sit in an awesome place to see snowfall over the next two weeks. Next weekend could very well bring the heavy accumulation goods and the models are starting to hint at that potential. Enjoy the flakes Sunday and Wednesday, good things are on the way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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