BuffaloWeather Posted December 11, 2015 Author Share Posted December 11, 2015 On the flip side, some impressive cold air is present in the arctic. Several sites in AK are running below normal for the month. Check out this forecast for Arctic Village. Maybe this will stem some of the runaway torching that we constantly hear about in the far north... Today Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming partly cloudy. Highs 10 to 25 below. Variable winds less than 15 mph. Tonight Partly cloudy. Lows 25 to 40 below. Variable winds less than 15 mph. Friday Partly cloudy. Highs 10 to 25 below. Variable winds less than 15 mph. Friday Night Partly cloudy. Lows 20 to 30 below. Variable winds less than 15 mph. Saturday Partly cloudy. Highs zero to 6 below. Variable winds less than 15 mph. Saturday Night Mostly cloudy. Lows around 25 below. Sunday And Sunday Night Partly cloudy. Highs around 5 below. Lows 15 to 25 below. Monday Mostly cloudy. Highs around 5 above. Monday Night And Tuesday Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow. Lows around 10 below. Highs around 5 above. Tuesday Night Cloudy with a chance of snow. Lows around 10 below. Wednesday Mostly cloudy. Highs around 5 above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottmartin49 Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 The 240 GEM?!? That is some serious 'wish fulfillment' going on there. Patience- and enjoy our 'second spring' for what it is... A hell of a lot rarer than snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 11, 2015 Author Share Posted December 11, 2015 Hey it has other modeled support. We will get our first measurable late next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 One year ago today in Rochester NY. Sigh..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 11, 2015 Author Share Posted December 11, 2015 One year ago today in Rochester NY. Sigh..... ROC Snow 12_11_2014.jpg What is that white stuff on the ground? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 That record high low for Monday could be absolutely crushed! 13 deg warmer than the record is pretty crazy if it verifies. I wonder when was the last time we broke a record high/low by double digits... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 11, 2015 Author Share Posted December 11, 2015 That record high low for Monday could be absolutely crushed! 13 deg warmer than the record is pretty crazy if it verifies. I wonder when was the last time we broke a record high/low by double digits... Can we lock in that last GFS? Looks amazing long-term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 There's always signs of a pattern change "right around the corner"... we saw it in 2011-2012 and we've seen signs of it this winter for the past several weeks. Once we actually see strong ensemble support for something within 7-8 days I'll get slightly more excited about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 Nov'14 anyone? http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/powerful-bering-sea-storm-potential-record-breaking-fairbanks-anchorage-alaska/54125652 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 11, 2015 Author Share Posted December 11, 2015 Nov'14 anyone? http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/powerful-bering-sea-storm-potential-record-breaking-fairbanks-anchorage-alaska/54125652 I saw that. We definitely need something huge like that to through a wrench in a pattern that has been so persistent for 3 months+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 11, 2015 Author Share Posted December 11, 2015 We get Thurs Night to Saturday night with cool/cold and right back to the Sauna. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 Some really nice pics from the Dec'01 LES event courtesy of the Buffalo News. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 11, 2015 Author Share Posted December 11, 2015 Awesome pics. Here is one of me at my grandmas house in the city with some of my family in 2001. I remember hitting my head on the wires from the snow banks in this one. 1995, 2000, and 2001 Lake Effect Snow events cemented my love for snow. 95 being the main one that got my addicted to the weather. I jumped off the 2nd story window into a giant snowbank with my uncle as an 8 year old kid, great times! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 11, 2015 Author Share Posted December 11, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 12, 2015 Author Share Posted December 12, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 THE PATTERN THEN LOOKS TO BRIEFLY TURN COLDER LATER NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY EVEN BRING POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW AS A SHOT OF CENTRAL CANADIAN AIR MAY BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON THE BACK SIDE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING OUT REGION. 850MB TEMPERATURES PUSHING BACK TO 10 TO 15C BELOW CAN SUPPORT A RISK OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THE 12/00Z GFS BUFKIT PROFILE FOR BUFFALO SHOWS LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISING OVER 15KFT WITH A NICE CROSS HAIR SIGNATURE INDICATING FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH. TEMPERATURES BY NEXT WEEKEND WILL FINALLY BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 What do you guys think. Do you think December 2015 will overtake December 1923 to become the warmest on record for Buffalo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 13, 2015 Author Share Posted December 13, 2015 What do you guys think. Do you think December 2015 will overtake December 1923 to become the warmest on record for Buffalo? We're at +9.2 so far and that will likely go up over 10 with today and tomorrow. There is a brief cooldown but than gets warm again. So I say we have a good chance at breaking it. Average temperature in December is 30.1 for the month so right now we are at 39.3, the record is 37.3 for the entire month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 13, 2015 Author Share Posted December 13, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 13, 2015 Author Share Posted December 13, 2015 All pre 1940 records are tough to get a judge on since they were taking literally on the lake shore which usually is warmer than anywhere else in WNY in November and December months. So those records are literally severely flawed. It would be insanely impressive to beat that 1923 record seeing as though the records are taken inland away from the lake now. There is not a huge correlation between warmest Dec and least snowy Decs only 2 appear on the list in 1889 and 1891 which were both on the lakeshore which again receives less snow than KBUF does. And then we have 2001 which had a record warm Dec. and then 7 feet on x-mas week. And then in 2006 we had lake Erie stay warm really late in the year which led to the 2007 event with 40+ inches south of Buffalo. Like everyone says, it only takes 1 event when the lake is this warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 13, 2015 Author Share Posted December 13, 2015 Not sure if it was posted but last month was the 7th warmest November on record with a mean temp of 46.2 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 13, 2015 Author Share Posted December 13, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 Forget about white Christmas, 12z goofus opens up the flood gates with 60+ temps possible. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 13, 2015 Author Share Posted December 13, 2015 Forget about white Christmas, 12z goofus opens up the flood gates with 60+ temps possible. Wow lol if this is right we are going to set the all time December record easily. After a 2 day cool down next weekend there is nothing but +10-20 temperatures through the end of every ensemble run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 13, 2015 Author Share Posted December 13, 2015 Always great reading on the NE and also the NYC forum from the long range gurus. If the CFS weeklies are to be believed, perhaps January will be a month where the first few weeks are an inferno, followed by a more sustained pattern change to seasonable cold. There is support for the late December into January period to be a torch based on the end of run on the latest GEFS and last night's Canadian ensemble.One of the analogs used by a poster on the NE forum is 06-07, which had a December very similar to this one and a very cold February (also top 10 snowiest in Chicago). I'd be surprised if February is as cold as that one was, but the idea of at least a seasonably cold February is reasonable. The raging PV does need to be broken down for it to happen though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 13, 2015 Author Share Posted December 13, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 13, 2015 Author Share Posted December 13, 2015 Monday Showers, mainly after 2pm. High near 70. South wind 6 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Chance at 70 tomorrow. Which would break the record at KBUF by 6 degrees. lol The all time record Dec high is 74 in 1982, another record El Nino. It all makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 13, 2015 Author Share Posted December 13, 2015 Euro has nice LES event just south of Buffalo later this coming week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 13, 2015 Author Share Posted December 13, 2015 Even this guy can't shake up this pattern, this is when you know it's bad. Stunning from above, an absolute beast below the clouds!This Aleutian low has a central pressure at 924 mb, producing gusts to 155 mph, waves over 45 feet. Unreal!This storm comes just over a year after ex-Super Typhoon Nuri broke a record as strongest storm to cross Dutch Harbor, Alaska. That storm had a central pressure of 924 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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