Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,598
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    PublicWorks143
    Newest Member
    PublicWorks143
    Joined

Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: End of Fall/Into Winter!


Recommended Posts

 

Check out this forecast for Mount Rainier in WA.  

 

Today
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 24. Breezy, with a southwest wind 14 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 32 to 38 inches possible.
Tonight
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 21. Windy, with a west southwest wind 32 to 38 mph, with gusts as high as 60 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 20 to 26 inches possible.
Tuesday
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 25. Windy, with a southwest wind around 47 mph, with gusts as high as 70 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 33 to 39 inches possible.
Tuesday Night
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 20. Windy, with a southwest wind 24 to 34 mph increasing to 38 to 48 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 65 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 33 to 39 inches possible.
Wednesday
Snow showers. High near 22. Windy, with a west southwest wind 43 to 48 mph decreasing to 36 to 41 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 65 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 9 to 13 inches possible.
Wednesday Night
Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 2. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 7 to 11 inches possible.

 

 

Wow. 300 inches of snow and 70 MPH winds. Day after tomorrow stuff right there.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 1.8k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

This record might be impossible to beat. If the last one held for 100+ years and with this one beating it by at least 2 weeks...

 

635844667334856406-2untitled.png

 

Interestingly, I read somewhere that the winter of 1899-1900 was a strong El Nino year, which followed a winter which had seen a brutally cold February. According to a book I have called "The Buffalo Blizzard Book", that winter went on to be the snowiest in Buffalo for 14 years, with most of the snow falling in February and March.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Interestingly, I read somewhere that the winter of 1899-1900 was a strong El Nino year, which followed a winter which had seen a brutally cold February. According to a book I have called "The Buffalo Blizzard Book", that winter went on to be the snowiest in Buffalo for 14 years, with most of the snow falling in February and March.

 

Where can I get a copy of that book, would love to add to my library. 1899-1900 the location for measuring snow was on the waterfront which receives much less than the current airport location. I wonder if there were quite a few good LES events during that time due to a warm lake so late in the year. What was Buffalos total snow for that year?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I know it's way out there, but some nice changes showing up on the 12Z GFS starting around 200 hrs.  A ridge over Greenland starts to build west and connects with a ridge north of AK by about 300 hrs, resulting in a polar bomb near New York state on Christmas Eve. I know odds of this verifying at such a long lead time are practically nill, but this is the first sign of any promise I've seen in the long range in what feels like forever.  Something to keep an eye on at least as we're working on our late season tans this weekend...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wasn't there an epic arctic outbreak that year? Some of the lowest temps ever recorded still stand today I think..

 

Interestingly, I read somewhere that the winter of 1899-1900 was a strong El Nino year, which followed a winter which had seen a brutally cold February. According to a book I have called "The Buffalo Blizzard Book", that winter went on to be the snowiest in Buffalo for 14 years, with most of the snow falling in February and March.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I know it's way out there, but some nice changes showing up on the 12Z GFS starting around 200 hrs.  A ridge over Greenland starts to build west and connects with a ridge north of AK by about 300 hrs, resulting in a polar bomb near New York state on Christmas Eve. I know odds of this verifying at such a long lead time are practically nill, but this is the first sign of any promise I've seen in the long range in what feels like forever.  Something to keep an eye on at least as we're working on our late season tans this weekend...

 

Much much better. Anything at -5 or below would be snow at this time of year with averages in mid December in the mid 30s.

 

gfs_T850_us_26.png

 

gfs_T850_us_41.png

 

gfs_T850_us_52.png

 

gem_T850_us_28.png

 

gem_T850_us_37.png

 

Euro still looks meh

 

ecmwf_T850_us_11.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wasn't there an epic arctic outbreak that year? Some of the lowest temps ever recorded still stand today I think..

 

Yes, there was an epic arctic outbreak in February 1899, similar, but not identical to, the epic cold of February 2015. A strong El Nino then developed that summer and Buffalo had its latest first measurable snowfall...that is until this year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Where can I get a copy of that book, would love to add to my library. 1899-1900 the location for measuring snow was on the waterfront which receives much less than the current airport location. I wonder if there were quite a few good LES events during that time due to a warm lake so late in the year. What was Buffalos total snow for that year?

 

It looks like your best bet may be ebay - it seems to be out of print. The author is Paul K. Moore.

 

http://www.ebay.ca/itm/The-Buffalo-Blizzard-Book-by-Paul-K-Moore-2011-/28080637937

 

 

Buffalo saw 99.1 inches of snow during the winter of 1899-1900, according to the book.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Forecast for Heavenly Valley (check out the winds):

 

Tonight
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36. Very windy, with a west wind 30 to 40 mph increasing to 40 to 50 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 75 mph.
Wednesday
A slight chance of rain and snow after 10am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 45. Strong and damaging winds, with a west wind 55 to 60 mph, with gusts as high as 95 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Wednesday Night
A slight chance of rain and snow before 10pm, then snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Strong and damaging winds, with a southwest wind 50 to 60 mph increasing to 60 to 70 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 105 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
Thursday
Snow. High near 33. Strong and damaging winds, with a west wind 60 to 70 mph, with gusts as high as 105 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible.
Thursday Night
Snow. Low around 16. Very windy, with a southwest wind 30 to 40 mph, with gusts as high as 60 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Jeopardy question of the day:

 

"Flies, green grass, golfers, kids on bikes, robins"

 

Answer: What are things you shouldn't see in Buffalo on December 10.

 

But I've been seeing a lot of this all month...Sitting at +6 for the month after a +5 November.  How high above normal can we get after this weekend?  Double digits???  And how long can we extend the record for no measurable snow?  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On the flip side, some impressive cold air is present in the arctic.  Several sites in AK are running below normal for the month.  Check out this forecast for Arctic Village. Maybe this will stem some of the runaway torching that we constantly hear about in the far north... :whistle:

 

Today
Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming partly cloudy. Highs 10 to 25 below. Variable winds less than 15 mph.
Tonight
Partly cloudy. Lows 25 to 40 below. Variable winds less than 15 mph.
Friday
Partly cloudy. Highs 10 to 25 below. Variable winds less than 15 mph.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows 20 to 30 below. Variable winds less than 15 mph.
Saturday
Partly cloudy. Highs zero to 6 below. Variable winds less than 15 mph.
Saturday Night
Mostly cloudy. Lows around 25 below.
Sunday And Sunday Night
Partly cloudy. Highs around 5 below. Lows 15 to 25 below.
Monday
Mostly cloudy. Highs around 5 above.
Monday Night And Tuesday
Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow. Lows around 10 below. Highs around 5 above.
Tuesday Night
Cloudy with a chance of snow. Lows around 10 below.
Wednesday
Mostly cloudy. Highs around 5 above. 
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...