Buffalo Bumble Posted November 26, 2015 Share Posted November 26, 2015 This is about as ugly as you can get for snow lovers. I may get some more beach days in December. We will almost certainly be passing the record for latest measurable snow at the airport in Buffalo. We might blow it out of the water if this is correct. Looks like an outside chance we get on the board Friday night, but if that doesn't happen we can pretty much lock in a new record, which goes all the way back to 1899! LATEST EVER First Measurable (.1" or more) Dec 3, 1899 First Inch Jan 3, 1923 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted November 26, 2015 Share Posted November 26, 2015 Judah Cowen says a good winter in the Northeast. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/11/24/innovating-forecaster-highlights-potential-for-very-snowy-winter-in-mid-atlantic-d-c/ "Cohen, whose winter outlooks boast a 75 percent accuracy rate over the 15 years he’s issued them, has developed a model for predicting winter conditions that is strongly based on snowfall in Eurasia during October. When snow rapidly piles up in Eurasia at that time, it sets off a chain reaction that he says is linked to cold and often snowy conditions in the eastern U.S. during winter." I do expect in December and January a weakening of the polar vortex, followed by an extended period where the AO is predominantly in the negative phase. I see no physical or plausible reason why if El Niño is moderate it necessarily forces a cold winter but, if it’s just a little stronger, it forces a warm winter. Sure both the winters of 1982-83 and 1997-98 were relatively mild but that is only a sample size of two. What justification is there to treat those two winters as there own special category? He has some nice graphs/data to back up his sentiments. Looks like it's Mr. Cohen (and Bastardi too I think) vs. the world on the winter forecast. I don't recall seeing any others going cold/snowy in the east this winter. This will certainly be a great test for the Eurasian snow cover method of predicting winter weather. Go big or go home I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 26, 2015 Author Share Posted November 26, 2015 Happy Thanksgiving all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 Happy thanksgiving everyone! In Buffalo for the holiday and was hoping to see some snow but oh well.... Maybe when I come back for Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 27, 2015 Author Share Posted November 27, 2015 Happy thanksgiving everyone! In Buffalo for the holiday and was hoping to see some snow but oh well.... Maybe when I come back for Christmas. December looks like a super torch, even worse than last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 28, 2015 Author Share Posted November 28, 2015 You guys ready for 70s in mid December? https://twitter.com/wxjerdman/status/670601847837745152/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 It certainly isn't looking good for snow lovers in December. Do you see this being similar to December 2006? I believe that was an El Nino year and we absolutely torched that month, with leaves even starting to bud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 You guys ready for 70s in mid December? https://twitter.com/wxjerdman/status/670601847837745152/photo/1 Unit of measure on that map is degrees F, so peak at +8F to +15F for Great Lakes and all but Northern Ontario. Around Buffalo that translates to upper 40s to mid 50s. Still totally ridiculous but not a crazy warm outlier. Hopeless for cold though. Looks like it's gonna be persistence this winter, until it's not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 28, 2015 Author Share Posted November 28, 2015 Unit of measure on that map is degrees F, so peak at +8F to +15F for Great Lakes and all but Northern Ontario. Around Buffalo that translates to upper 40s to mid 50s. Still totally ridiculous but not a crazy warm outlier. Hopeless for cold though. Looks like it's gonna be persistence this winter, until it's not. Yeah I know. I was just using some hyperbole to show just how warm it has the potential to be in mid Dec. Nearly every indice is pointing to near record warmth for a period of time. The record highs at KBUF from the 9-13th won't be to hard to beat. Dec. 1st-8th has some real warm records, ironic enough 4 of those record highs came from the other record El Nino in 1982. The coorelation is strong between a record El Nino and a really warm December. Dec 9th: 62 Dec 10th: 62 Dec.11th: 61 Dec.12th: 63 Dec.13th: 62 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 28, 2015 Author Share Posted November 28, 2015 It certainly isn't looking good for snow lovers in December. Do you see this being similar to December 2006? I believe that was an El Nino year and we absolutely torched that month, with leaves even starting to bud. I see it being similar to 06 in snowfall and definitely temperatures. The only bright-side to this is that Lake Erie most likely won't freeze this year so we can always get a Feb. 2007 event. But this time with a wide open lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 28, 2015 Author Share Posted November 28, 2015 KBUF says we will blow the measurable snowfall record out the window. AT THIS POINT... IT IS NOT LOOKING GREAT FOR BUFFALO TO SEE ITSFIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON WITH THIS STORM... WHICHTAKES US THROUGH DECEMBER 2ND AND 3RD (ALTHOUGH I WOULD NOT RULEIT OUT YET). THE RECORD LATEST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL AT KBUF ISDECEMBER 3RD (WHICH OCCURRED IN 1899). IF WE CAN MAKE IT THROUGHTHIS STORM SYSTEM WITHOUT MEASURING 0.1 INCHES OF SNOW... IT COULDACTUALLY BE A WHILE BEFORE WE GET ANOTHER CHANCE AT SNOW. AFTERTHIS STORM SYSTEM... RIDGING BUILDS IN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUSAGAIN... WITH THE HIGHEST 500 MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES FROM THE GREATLAKES NORTH TO THE HUDSON BAY FROM THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEKRIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LONGER RANGE ENSEMBLES (GEFS THROUGH360HRS AND THE CFS) INDICATE THAT THIS MAY ACTUALLY BECOME AFAIRLY PERSISTENT FEATURE THAT COULD LINGER RIGHT THROUGH THE 2NDOR 3RD WEEK OF DECEMBER. SHOULD THIS COME TO FRUITION... WE WOULDSEE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL...AND ANY SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR REMAINING AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKESREGION... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 29, 2015 Author Share Posted November 29, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted November 29, 2015 Share Posted November 29, 2015 Dec'01 redux? Warm temps + no snow till christmas and then BAM 80"+ fell within a week.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 29, 2015 Author Share Posted November 29, 2015 Dec'01 redux? Warm temps + no snow till christmas and then BAM 80"+ fell within a week.. There is always that chance with a record warm lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 30, 2015 Author Share Posted November 30, 2015 Hey if we're going to have boring weather, mine as well blow some records away. Even though they are futility records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 Hey if we're going to have boring weather, mine as well blow some records away. Even though they are futility records. We will pay for this dearly, mother nature has it's way of balancing things out lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 We will pay for this dearly, mother nature has it's way of balancing things out lol.. All that will be needed is one cold shot over the lakes and you could be working with something very impressive. Delta T's could very well be 20-30 degrees in January for each Lake and that's rare for that month. Current long range set up is screaming ridging for the east meaning the region will be basking in the "warmth" for a good portion of December. For now, the end of the calendar year is looking like a lost cause for snow lovers, but the winter doesn't end in December. A slow start was all but inevitable, but this one could break records as Rich was eluding to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 Hey if we're going to have boring weather, mine as well blow some records away. Even though they are futility records. The pressure's on...will Wed night/Thur produce, or do we annihilate an incredibly long standing record? COLD ADVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING PTYPE CONCERNS INTO PLAY AS 850MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -6C. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL LAG...WITH LOWER ELEVATIONS NOT DROPPING TO THE FREEZING MARK. EXPECT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TO SEE A RAIN/WET SNOW MIX OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN CHANGING TO ALL WET SNOW. THE ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES SHOULD PREVENT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF BOTH LAKES MAY SEE SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ORDER OF A COATING TO AN INCH. IF BUFFALO IS ABLE TO GET THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH NO MEASURABLE SNOW...THIS YEAR WILL SHATTER THE RECORD FOR THE LATEST FIRST MEASURABLE SNOW AS NO POTENTIAL FOR SNOW IS APPARENT IN LONG TERM FORECASTS THROUGH AT LEAST THE 10TH OF DECEMBER. THE PREVIOUS RECORD FOR FIRST MEASURABLE SNOW IS DECEMBER 3RD...SET IN 1899. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 Gonna blowtorch this month away. BUF probably wont see anything and may honestly make it past the winter solstice. My only hope is that I'm here when the record warm lake meets cold air, whenever that may be (looking at you, February '07) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 We will pay for this dearly, mother nature has it's way of balancing things out lol.. The winter of 2011/2012 says not so fast. Things never balanced out that year. We simply never got winter. My favorite part of that winter is that we got our first Winter Storm Watch on April 22nd and it was pretty much a bust. I doubt things will be that bad this year, but it can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 Lake Erie is only +3F above average for the date. It's not hard to envision a situation in which the lake cools incrementally without any real cold air aloft. My pessimism is growing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 The winter of 2011/2012 says not so fast. Things never balanced out that year. We simply never got winter. My favorite part of that winter is that we got our first Winter Storm Watch on April 22nd and it was pretty much a bust. I doubt things will be that bad this year, but it can happen. Totally agree. Lake Erie can be sizzling at 40+ degrees in Jan/Feb and if we only get weak sauce cold fronts and/or generally zonal flow, the lake effect spigot will remain firmly closed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 30, 2015 Author Share Posted November 30, 2015 The winter of 2011/2012 says not so fast. Things never balanced out that year. We simply never got winter. My favorite part of that winter is that we got our first Winter Storm Watch on April 22nd and it was pretty much a bust. I doubt things will be that bad this year, but it can happen. Except this wont be happening this year. The Winter of 2011-12 proved to be historically mild and relatively snow free across Western and North Central New York. Some of the main contributors to this were an abnormally deep and persistent Icelandic Low and a strong Azores High that encouraged a fast zonal upper level flow across Eastern North America and the North Atlantic. This stronger than normal zonal flow kept Arctic air bottled up over the high latitudes while flooding much of the lower 48 with mild Pacific air. Normally, the jet stream over North America exhibits a higher amplitude. The corresponding meridional component to the jet stream this past winter was very weak. While Icelandic Low's are quite common during the winter months, they periodically give way to persistent areas of high pressure. These high pressure systems are associated with ridging that extends from the North Atlantic poleward across Greenland. These 'Greenland blocks' can persist for weeks at a time and act as a barrier to the upper level flow exiting North America. The blocking pattern enables closed lows to develop over Eastern Canada, which in turn encourages intrusions of Arctic air over the Great Lakes region. This is often referred to as the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). During this past winter, a Greenland block was virtually non-existent as low pressure was very persistent in the vicinity of Iceland. In fact, the strength and persistence of the resulting positive NAO had not been witnessed since the winter of 1999-2000 when we experienced one of our top 30 'warmest' winters (out of more than 140 winters). That particular winter was also one that featured relatively little snow. While our winters are often correlated to what is happening over the Equatorial Pacific (El Nino / La Nina), this is past winter was just more evidence that the Great Lakes region is heavily influenced by the strength and phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 30, 2015 Author Share Posted November 30, 2015 Lake Erie is only +3F above average for the date. It's not hard to envision a situation in which the lake cools incrementally without any real cold air aloft. My pessimism is growing. While the official station recording is always a good measure to go by. I prefer a total lake temperature profile to get a good idea on just how warm/cool lake erie is. There is a HUGE difference in the lakes temp from this year to last and the next 2 weeks will make that even greater. Late Dec/January also have the best chance at true arctic air, so the stage can always be set for a huge event as long as the lake remains open. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 Buffalo falls to mention the death vortex over AK during the 2011-2012 winter. It was a major contributor to the lack of snow. Both the Pacific and Atlantic were garbage. Generally speaking, the Pacific dictates if there is cold air coming into Canada, while the NAO dictates whether it stays there. The 2014-2015 winter had a positive NAO but an extremely favorable block over Alaska and western Canada. Look how that it worked out. So far this year, the Atlantic and Pacific have been both been unfavorable, just like that year. That year was a La Nina, btw. I personally wouldn't expect this poor of a pattern to last the rest of the winter. That year was an extreme event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 1, 2015 Author Share Posted December 1, 2015 Giddy up fellas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 Except this wont be happening this year. The Winter of 2011-12 proved to be historically mild and relatively snow free across Western and North Central New York. Some of the main contributors to this were an abnormally deep and persistent Icelandic Low and a strong Azores High that encouraged a fast zonal upper level flow across Eastern North America and the North Atlantic. This stronger than normal zonal flow kept Arctic air bottled up over the high latitudes while flooding much of the lower 48 with mild Pacific air. Normally, the jet stream over North America exhibits a higher amplitude. The corresponding meridional component to the jet stream this past winter was very weak. While Icelandic Low's are quite common during the winter months, they periodically give way to persistent areas of high pressure. These high pressure systems are associated with ridging that extends from the North Atlantic poleward across Greenland. These 'Greenland blocks' can persist for weeks at a time and act as a barrier to the upper level flow exiting North America. The blocking pattern enables closed lows to develop over Eastern Canada, which in turn encourages intrusions of Arctic air over the Great Lakes region. This is often referred to as the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). During this past winter, a Greenland block was virtually non-existent as low pressure was very persistent in the vicinity of Iceland. In fact, the strength and persistence of the resulting positive NAO had not been witnessed since the winter of 1999-2000 when we experienced one of our top 30 'warmest' winters (out of more than 140 winters). That particular winter was also one that featured relatively little snow. While our winters are often correlated to what is happening over the Equatorial Pacific (El Nino / La Nina), this is past winter was just more evidence that the Great Lakes region is heavily influenced by the strength and phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation. I'm not following why you don't think that could happen this year... I understand the equatorial pacific is in an entirely different state than in 2012, but the fact remains that their are setups that can pretty much remove any chance of significant and long lasting arctic outbreaks for our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 Giddy up fellas. LOL, love your optimism Buffalo!.... but damn are we in a desperate situation when we are drooling over a 16 day forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 1, 2015 Author Share Posted December 1, 2015 I'm not following why you don't think that could happen this year... I understand the equatorial pacific is in an entirely different state than in 2012, but the fact remains that their are setups that can pretty much remove any chance of significant and long lasting arctic outbreaks for our region. As OSU pointed out the Alaskan death vortex staying in the same general location all winter would be an unlikely scenario. Obviously in El Ninos you will have more warm times than cold times, but winter will still show up sometime. A back loaded winter is likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 1, 2015 Author Share Posted December 1, 2015 LOL, love your optimism Buffalo!.... but damn are we in a desperate situation when we are drooling over a 16 day forecast. Haha! It has to get cold eventually right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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