champy Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 always stick with the trend, this year everything had backed off as we get closer to the event. Feb will be below normal in the snowfall department, bank on it. Yeah. I like Buffalo's enthusiasm but every single one of those cold maps has been erased by the time we get there. I think our main hope now is some sort of warmer inland storm - or maybe overruning event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 0z GFS continues to highlight an explosive synoptic storm for the northeast next week. There are many subtle ingredients that would have to come together perfectly for this storm to come to fruition...which is unlikely..but its fun to watch never the less. There is a period of time early Tuesday morning where the Northern and Southern branch phase resulting in pressure falls on the order of 12-18mb over a 12 hour period. That would be pretty exciting to say the least. It wouldnt bode well for the lifts and Gondolas of Whiteface though.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 BUF not impressed with the long range. SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TAKE PLACEACROSS NORTH AMERICA DURING THIS PERIOD. AT LEAST ONE ROBUSTSHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OUT OF AN EXPANSIVE STORM SYSTEM OVER THEBERING SEA...AND THIS SHORTWAVE WILL WORK INS WAY INTO ALREADYEXISTING TROUGHINESS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THISDEEPENING TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH A BURGEONING UPSTREAM WEST COASTRIDGE TO OPEN THE DOOR FOR A LOBE OF SUB-ARCTIC AIR TO PUSHSOUTHWARDS INTO THE NATIONS MID-SECTION...AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THELOWER GREAT LAKES. WHILE WE WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF VERY COLDWEATHER WITH THIS SCENARIO...MANY WILL HAPPY TO KNOW THAT THE TURNTO COLDER THAN NORMAL WEATHER SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 BUF not impressed with the long range.Neither am I. I'm at a conference in Savannah GA. Everyone asking how much snow we have in BUF. Almost embarrassing to say we're sitting on 26 inches of snow for the winter. Guess we shouldn't be surprised that a top 10 least snowy winter is in sights after getting a laughable 1 freaking inch through Dec 31. Super strong El Niño FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Still wanna take me up on that bet Ayuud? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Neither am I. I'm at a conference in Savannah GA. Everyone asking how much snow we have in BUF. Almost embarrassing to say we're sitting on 26 inches of snow for the winter. Guess we shouldn't be surprised that a top 10 least snowy winter is in sights after getting a laughable 1 freaking inch through Dec 31. Super strong El Niño FTL. "Embarrassing" should be saved for us in central and eastern NY still looking to reach 10 inches..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Potential for a little les tomorrow night into fri t Snow showers likely, mainly after 10pm. Cloudy, with a low around 26. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 70%. http://models.weatherbell.com/cmc/2016020300/syracuse/cmc_pr6_slp_t850_syracuse_12.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Man, ggem is pure porn next week, all the globals look decent, i think we still make out in this pattern ..We'll see.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 3, 2016 Author Share Posted February 3, 2016 The reason the models have been having such a hard time with cold air this year. Every day it gets closer the warmer and warmer the actual results are. Care to share any evidence to the contrary? Fact is there is literally no snow cover to our southwest, and we have been overperforming in the temperature department for a week already. This has the makings of an early spring unless we somehow get a snowstorm to put down a lot of snow cover fast. Without it, the dry ground will continue to warm quickly and we will continue to bust forecast expectations. Hell then you combine that with the fact that there is minimal ice coverage over the Great Lakes as well. Notice how these cold snaps come in less impressive? That isn't just by coincidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 I think KBUF is looking like a fair chance to break the low record. We were only 2 inches above 2011-12 as of Feb 1. It shouldn't be hard to get over 10.1 inches in Feb-Mar, but this persistent snowless pattern is awful. We wasted a lot of potential from lake warmth with gradual cooling, and now it'll take a stronger cold shot to get better lake snow. And this pattern seems terrible for synoptic level snow. In any case, Buffalo would just about have to double the season-to-date snowfall to finish above the bottom five (#5 is the El Nino plagued 1982-83 winter at 52.4 inches - I lived in northwestern OH back then, and I remember it as a winter of mud and fog - our Boy Scout troop did a Klondike Derby in mid January that might as well have been a mud crawl). So yeah, I'm just about to cliff dive here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 3, 2016 Author Share Posted February 3, 2016 I think KBUF is looking like a fair chance to break the low record. We were only 2 inches above 2011-12 as of Feb 1. It shouldn't be hard to get over 10.1 inches in Feb-Mar, but this persistent snowless pattern is awful. We wasted a lot of potential from lake warmth with gradual cooling, and now it'll take a stronger cold shot to get better lake snow. And this pattern seems terrible for synoptic level snow. In any case, Buffalo would just about have to double the season-to-date snowfall to finish above the bottom five (#5 is the El Nino plagued 1982-83 winter at 52.4 inches - I lived in northwestern OH back then, and I remember it as a winter of mud and fog - our Boy Scout troop did a Klondike Derby in mid January that might as well have been a mud crawl). So yeah, I'm just about to cliff dive here. 4 years ago we had a total of 36.7" for the entire season, and it wasn't even an El Nino year. We followed that year up with 58.8". What a brutal 2 seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Still wanna take me up on that bet Ayuud? Yea man, i still have hopes for the long range.. NASA model predicting off the charts warm temps at the N.Pole for next week so hopefully that will shake things up as we head toward March! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 And look at the 500mb setup for next week, i see a lot of LES potential if we time those shortwaves right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 4, 2016 Author Share Posted February 4, 2016 Maybe a new thread brings us better luck? http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47802-upstate-nynorth-country-adjacent-on-qc-vt-end-of-winterinto-spring/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UKStormFan Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Crazy Cold on tonight's 18z GFS piling into the NE/Lakes. -36 uppers? That's colder than the record breaking last few winters isn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.