BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2016 Author Share Posted January 31, 2016 Yeah not to impressive at all with regards to the lake effect potential in the 5-10 day period, still early so there's hope but like BuffaloWeather said each run is looking less and less conducive for any significant lake effect and I agree that the best synoptic potential over the next 1-2 weeks will be over eastern areas. After 2 weeks I believe the pattern returns to the warmth that most of this winter has featured. Think we may have a sneaky late season snowstorm that gets BUF to near 50" but I think between now and the end of March/early April, BUF struggles to reach 40". A dud of a season for sure, but that's definitely to be expected after the last two. We go right into a La Nina which usually has very early starts to winter. So don't have to wait to long until next year. Should have a very busy Nov/Early January! There will definitely be some LES in the coming weeks, and only takes 1-2 events to get KBUF up to normal snowfall. Places in Maryland have more snow than me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 We have a great pattern incoming and you guys are giving on winter? lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 We have a great pattern incoming and you guys are giving on winter? lol.. i definitely wouldn't call it great. I'd put money that by the end of February KBUF is still below 40" for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2016 Author Share Posted January 31, 2016 We have a great pattern incoming and you guys are giving on winter? lol.. You're right. Look at that PNA on the EPS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2016 Author Share Posted January 31, 2016 i definitely wouldn't call it great. I'd put money that by the end of February KBUF is still below 40" for the season. I would take that bet. How much we talking? Buffalo is at 26.6" on the year, they only need 13.4" to get to 40". If you put it at 50" I would still take that bet TBH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2016 Author Share Posted January 31, 2016 From a great poster on Great Lakes forum: The upcoming weather pattern isn't that hopeless IMO. With no real -NAO and a strong -EPO, whenever the PV moves around there will be opportunity for storms in our sub. The -EPO tends to favor phasing over the Plains and with no strong -NAO there will be room for a track west of the Apps whenever the PV lifts out and when it initially sinks south too. And with such an amplified pattern there should be clippers along with the potential for fairly top end cold IF we can lay a snow pack down. At the very least if all other snow chances fail LES belts should do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2016 Author Share Posted January 31, 2016 LAKE EFFECT (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)... ON THE HEELS OFTHE DEPARTING LOW ON THURSDAY... 850 MB TEMPERATURES -12 TO -15CMOVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN A MEAN CYCLONIC FLOW. LAKEEFFECT SNOWS WILL INCREASE EAST OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKESTHURSDAY...BUT MAY DIMINISH FRIDAY WHEN DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TOBUILD IN WITH HIGH PRESSURE. ANOTHER WAVE WILL APPROACH NEXT WEEKENDWHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2016 Author Share Posted January 31, 2016 Top analogs for the next few weeks 6-8 day: 9-11 day 12-14 day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 From a great poster on Great Lakes forum: The upcoming weather pattern isn't that hopeless IMO. With no real -NAO and a strong -EPO, whenever the PV moves around there will be opportunity for storms in our sub. The -EPO tends to favor phasing over the Plains and with no strong -NAO there will be room for a track west of the Apps whenever the PV lifts out and when it initially sinks south too. And with such an amplified pattern there should be clippers along with the potential for fairly top end cold IF we can lay a snow pack down. At the very least if all other snow chances fail LES belts should do well. Not sure if it was Hitchcock or Bob Hamilton from NWS BUF but one of them once said once that our chances of getting hit with major synoptic storms significantly increases when there is a neutral or slightly positive NAO in play with a positive PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 i definitely wouldn't call it great. I'd put money that by the end of February KBUF is still below 40" for the season. Devin a lil grumpy today eh? i'll take you up on that bet any day of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 The pattern around the 10th just screams for a big, big storm. One can only hope that it hits us but it's about the strongest storm signal I've seen this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Finished about 3-5 degrees above avg for jan.. Fulton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Kbuf THE FLOW REMAINS A BIT TOO DRY AND RIDGY BEHIND THEDEPARTING STORM SYSTEM TO SUPPORT MUCH LAKE EFFECT SNOW. HOWEVERANOTHER WAVE WILL APPROACH NEXT WEEKEND WHICH PROMISES TO USHER INMUCH COLDER AIR AND A BETTER CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS INTO THESTART OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2016 Author Share Posted January 31, 2016 Kbuf Yeah there is a very short window for LES following that low pressure system. I think next weekend into the next week is a much better shot. I see several clippers coming through with reinforcing shots of colder air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 1st things first, we have a couple clippers coming down the pipeline..Verbatim the 2nd clipper is a lil warm at the surface but who cares at this point..Something to track.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2016 Author Share Posted January 31, 2016 This thread is around 50 pages and will be starting a new one on Weds once the torch is over and we have a better idea of lake effect/clipper/synoptic potential going forward. It felt great today though. Temps into the 50s, went for a nice 3 mile walk, but haven't got a chance to do many winter activities this year at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2016 Author Share Posted February 1, 2016 Such a beautiful pic of the lake yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Im thinking above average snow in feb for buf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2016 Author Share Posted February 1, 2016 Im thinking above average snow in feb for buf. Yeah I think that's a pretty easy call based on the upcoming pattern. We should have an open lake for the entire month which is definitely a rarity since by Feb most of lake Erie is frozen. Here is a picture from Feb. 3rd last year. We also have 29 days in comparison to the normal 28. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 What a bomb on the euro, for the 10th..Hammers WNY.. Gfs is farther east and has it next monday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Not sure if it was Hitchcock or Bob Hamilton from NWS BUF but one of them once said once that our chances of getting hit with major synoptic storms significantly increases when there is a neutral or slightly positive NAO in play with a positive PNA. Always a tough conclusion to draw. Its complicated lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 This thread is around 50 pages and will be starting a new one on Weds once the torch is over and we have a better idea of lake effect/clipper/synoptic potential going forward. It felt great today though. Temps into the 50s, went for a nice 3 mile walk, but haven't got a chance to do many winter activities this year at all. Did some phenomenal "spring" snowboarding at Bristol Mountain last night. The snow was soft, the air was warm...we absolutely crushed it all night. It was fantastic....so at least that was a one perk to this miserable warmup. As for early next week, the signals are certainly there for something big to happen. I have a 3 day trip in Adirondacks planned and am sooo stoked to see if we can eek out a nice little event to freshen up the slopes. Every model run is more and more intriguing. It's going to be a great week to track this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Did some phenomenal "spring" snowboarding at Bristol Mountain last night. The snow was soft, the air was warm...we absolutely crushed it all night. It was fantastic....so at least that was a one perk to this miserable warmup. As for early next week, the signals are certainly there for something bit to happen. I have a 3 day trip in Adirondacks planned and am sooo stoked to see if we can eek out a nice little event to freshen up the slopes. Every model run is more and more intriguing. It's going to be a great week to track this. adirondacks definitely look like they may cash in next week on that coastal storm that the models are hinting at. Actually looks like it may be a coastal hugger which we haven't seen much of at all in the last 2 winter seasons. Think anyone from ROC to ART to BGM to ALB may cash in big next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 2, 2016 Author Share Posted February 2, 2016 It was looking so promising and with each model run it got warmer and warmer. NWS mentions it as well. Gotta love record strong El Ninos that slowly weaken. A CLIPPER MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/SRN ONTARIO/QUEBECOVER THE WEEKEND BRINGS THE THREAT OF SNOW SATURDAY/SUNDAY. BEHINDTHIS SYSTEM GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES NOT AS COLD ASEARLIER RUNS INDICATED WITH READINGS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 2, 2016 Author Share Posted February 2, 2016 Beautiful look but those -20s 850s will be -10s in 5-6 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 2, 2016 Author Share Posted February 2, 2016 Have you guys seen this? Pretty awesome link about Buffalos weather history. http://legacy.wgrz.com/story/weather/storm-team-2/2014/10/15/wny-weather-history/16919665/ Crazy 1959: A peak gust of 93 mph was recorded at Niagara Falls airport and caused injuries to at least 14 people and considerable damage to roofs and power lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 2, 2016 Author Share Posted February 2, 2016 Go look at the latest GFS. Synoptic storm followed by a long term SW flow LES event. Just beautiful...It's not to far out there either, early next week. The path of the synoptic storm allows the the PV to be drawn southeastward. Best model porn I've seen this winter. Will see if the Ensembles agree as models have been downright terrible with the judging of cold air outside of within 5 days or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Have you guys seen this? Pretty awesome link about Buffalos weather history. http://legacy.wgrz.com/story/weather/storm-team-2/2014/10/15/wny-weather-history/16919665/ Crazy 1959: A peak gust of 93 mph was recorded at Niagara Falls airport and caused injuries to at least 14 people and considerable damage to roofs and power lines. Jeez! and i thought the 91 mph gust recorded at the top of HSBC tower back in Jan'08 was impressive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 It was looking so promising and with each model run it got warmer and warmer. NWS mentions it as well. Gotta love record strong El Ninos that slowly weaken. A CLIPPER MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/SRN ONTARIO/QUEBEC OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGS THE THREAT OF SNOW SATURDAY/SUNDAY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES NOT AS COLD AS EARLIER RUNS INDICATED WITH READINGS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORM. always stick with the trend, this year everything had backed off as we get closer to the event. Feb will be below normal in the snowfall department, bank on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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