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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: End of Fall/Into Winter!


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I found it funny that they said they lost their snowboard in the middle of the event. First of all how is that even possible, and second of all don't you think the DC NWS should have a back-up? ^_^

 

It is ridiculous isn't it. It's DC so they are experts at lying and bending crap down that way. Who knows, maybe all the politician hot air creates a melting effect as snow falls and gives lower ratios  :lol:

 

I really hope we get a good set-up when you come up. I'm not seeing to much cold air to generate a large event, but maybe the first week of Feb will have something to offer.

 

 

I hope so too!! Looking good for around the Tug that's for sure, but when is it not haha. I'll make sure to contact you when we're out that way so we can meet and grab dinner or something and shoot the bull over weather and sports. I'd be down for that  ^_^

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It is ridiculous isn't it. It's DC so they are experts at lying and bending crap down that way. Who knows, maybe all the politician hot air creates a melting effect as snow falls and gives lower ratios  :lol:

 

 

 

I hope so too!! Looking good for around the Tug that's for sure, but when is it not haha. I'll make sure to contact you when we're out that way so we can meet and grab dinner or something and shoot the bull over weather and sports. I'd be down for that  ^_^

 

Sounds great man! Let me know what your plans are.

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NYZ006>008-271030-

/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.Y.0012.160127T0224Z-160127T1500Z/

OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE

924 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST

WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT

SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY.

* LOCATIONS...JEFFERSON...LEWIS...AND OSWEGO COUNTIES. GREATEST

ACCUMULATIONS WILL FOCUS ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE TUG HILL

PLATEAU.

* TIMING...THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES OVERNIGHT AND 1 TO 2 INCHES

WEDNESDAY LEADING TO TOTALS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES IN PERSISTENT

SNOWS.

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH PRODUCING SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING

SNOW.

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Coming to the Buffalo area Feb 5-9. Hopefully I'll cash in on something while I'm there considering the last storm dropped a ton of snow just south of me while I managed a whopping 6-7". Places just 15 miles south managed 15" and 50 miles south managed over 25"... Definitely a frustrating event for me so I'd love to see a nice lake effect blast in my 4 days there...

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Coming to the Buffalo area Feb 5-9. Hopefully I'll cash in on something while I'm there considering the last storm dropped a ton of snow just south of me while I managed a whopping 6-7". Places just 15 miles south managed 15" and 50 miles south managed over 25"... Definitely a frustrating event for me so I'd love to see a nice lake effect blast in my 4 days there...

Pretty good timeframe man! There will be lake effect!

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Pretty good timeframe man! There will be lake effect!

 

Yeah, that set-up looks pretty decent for LES somewhere downwind in that period. The quick warmup should keep Erie open - maybe even bump up the surface temps and slightly improve the lapse rate! Gotta be some good out of this winter.

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Yeah, that set-up looks pretty decent for LES somewhere downwind in that period. The quick warmup should keep Erie open - maybe even bump up the surface temps and slightly improve the lapse rate! Gotta be some good out of this winter.

I like metros chances actually as well for the beginning period and to far out to predict mid level waves and fluctuations in wind direction.

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I like metros chances actually as well for the beginning period and to far out to predict mid level waves and fluctuations in wind direction.

 

Can I ask what you're seeing? I'm looking at position of low on 12Z Euro, wind barbs, temps at 500 and 850, at 192 hours. All of that looks like LES signal, and flow seems to favor Metro. GFS has low positioned to the south of the Euro, and a more westerly flow. That about right?

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Can I ask what you're seeing? I'm looking at position of low on 12Z Euro, wind barbs, temps at 500 and 850, at 192 hours. All of that looks like LES signal, and flow seems to favor Metro. GFS has low positioned to the south of the Euro, and a more westerly flow. That about right?

 

Sorry for the delayed response been busy all day. But yes that is all correct. Feb. 4th into the following week look good for LES. Where, how much, etc... will not be able to be determined for awhile.

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We want that system coming early next week to go as far NW as possible to set us up with a nice SW flow for a long period of time. We haven't had that set-up in years. We actually did see that set-up in 2014 but the lake was already frozen by that time.

 

Watertown got pounded in early-mid Feb. They received over 70" of snow in 10 days. Whenever watertown gets hit Buffalo does as well as its a SW flow. I totally forgot about this time period and how much potential it had if it wasn't for a frozen lake. =/

 

15"

 

EventSnowFall_020814.png

 

26.7"

 

EventSnowFall_012914.png

 

30 inches... Watertown

 

EventSnowFall_020614.png

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From KBUF

 

WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS
EXPECTED BY LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES
NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL TRANSITION THE RAIN OVER TO SNOW...
THOUGH A POTENT DRY SLOT MAY RESULT IN A DRY PERIOD PRIOR TO THE
CHANGE OVER. LATEST GFS/ECMWF INDICATES THE AIRMASS COLD ENOUGH FOR
SOME DECENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY UNDER A
PROLONGED WESTERLY FLOW REGIME. THIS PERIOD WILL ALSO NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EAST
OF THE LAKES.

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