BuffaloWeather Posted January 24, 2016 Author Share Posted January 24, 2016 Storm for beginning of feb screams ice storm Or a couple snow storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Or a couple snow storms. Let's just say I'll bet the under....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Or a couple snow storms. Wish I could believe hour 384.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 24, 2016 Author Share Posted January 24, 2016 Wish I could believe hour 384.... Going to be a parade of storms through February. Some will cut and leave us warm, some will be suppressed and miss us to the east coast. We will have to hit on 1 of them right? It's been almost a full year since the last synoptic storm in WNY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 24, 2016 Author Share Posted January 24, 2016 Looks like some ice on the southwestern portion of the Lake, but doesn't look locked in place yet even down there yet. Temperatures range from 34-39 across the rest of the lake with no ice. With the upcoming pattern with its ups and downs and the first week of February being the coldest on average in WNY I don't see Lake Erie completely freezing this year. I was surprised when I saw this graph that Erie freezes only 69% of winter seasons. I thought it always froze. (It does use 90% as the basis of "completely" frozen) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 24, 2016 Author Share Posted January 24, 2016 I remember this event vividly as one with 80-90% ice coverage but still had totals of 10-15". https://web.archive.org/web/20081103064504/http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/lakeffect/lake0708/j/stormsumj.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 24, 2016 Author Share Posted January 24, 2016 Now thats a storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 24, 2016 Author Share Posted January 24, 2016 http://www.weather.com/sports-recreation/ski/news/deepest-snow-50-states-record-snow-cover-20130220 Found this pretty cool. 117" at whiteface mountain is record for NYS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 http://www.weather.com/sports-recreation/ski/news/deepest-snow-50-states-record-snow-cover-20130220 Found this pretty cool. 117" at whiteface mountain is record for NYS. Awesome link - I enjoyed reading that. Looks like we're riding the line after this week between wet/white with a few systems rolling through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 25, 2016 Author Share Posted January 25, 2016 Awesome link - I enjoyed reading that. Looks like we're riding the line after this week between wet/white with a few systems rolling through. Yeah, for sure. A few clippers this week with a few inches of snow with each if we're lucky. A system looks to come early next week anywhere from Chicago to Boston on ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 25, 2016 Author Share Posted January 25, 2016 Sad day for WNY weather enthusiasts. One of the only good Mets in WNY. I like Todd Santos, Mike Cejka, and Andy Parker but Don was great. http://talkintv.buffalonews.com/2016/01/25/ch-4-meteorologist-don-paul-expected-to-announce-retirement-on-6-p-m-newscast/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 25, 2016 Author Share Posted January 25, 2016 Some hope for Feb. Notice that the projected geopotential heights on the ECMWF ensemble mean for early February is an apparent reflection of the stratospheric state. Very strong wave-1 forcing (up to record daily high wave heights actually, around 1700 gpm at 10hpa) will be pushing the 10-70hpa vortex off the pole and toward northern Europe by the beginning of February. We have some bottom-up activity but also the true upper stratospheric perturbation via the wave-1. In response, 500mb heights quickly rise across the pole, forcing the return of the -AO. Depending upon the resolution of the stratospheric event, we may have a period in the first 7-10 days of February in which the AO is negative while contemporaneously the NAO persists in a positive state via the influence of the vortex sitting near NW Europe. As I posted last week, the anomalously strong condition of the vortex may prevent a major SSW, but I think a minor SSW will probably occur in that Jan 30-Feb 4 period. Typically a wave-1 of this extreme amplitude would have no problem inducing a major SSW, but this vortex isn't going down without a fight. Some ensemble members suggest a major SSW, but I'm doubting it right now. The ECMWF on the berlin site nearly reversed the zonal winds at 1 hpa at the beginning of February. Nonetheless, there will be more than sufficient stratospheric perturbation continuing to prevent the resumption of mean +NAM conditions in the troposphere. If we continue to shift that vortex over toward Europe, I would anticipate that modelling becomes more bullish on Greenland geopotential height rises as well. Tropospherically, Pacific +AAM, current GWO state, and location of strongest upper divergence are suggestive of the retrogression of the West Coast trough [Feb 1-2] back into the GOAK/Aleutians for February. Thus, the idea of +PNA / SE US trough is pretty high confidence for February. I think we'll attempt a neutral to potentially -EPO at times; climatologically, stronger Nino's feature their most conducive EPO pattern in February. We'll see. I'm fairly confident we're looking at a favorable PNA / EPO / AO state overall for early February. The NAO, again, may lag due to that vortex presence, but it too should eventually flip back negative. Bottom line, winter, I continue to think, just began snowfall wise in the Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Sad day for WNY weather enthusiasts. One of the only good Mets in WNY. I like Todd Santos, Mike Cejka, and Andy Parker but Don was great. http://talkintv.buffalonews.com/2016/01/25/ch-4-meteorologist-don-paul-expected-to-announce-retirement-on-6-p-m-newscast/ Bummer! The writing was on the wall when they brought Santos on. I thought it was awkward having 2 mets on at the same time, with DP handing over the long-range part of the forecast to Santos. Lots of weather knowledge leaving the local airwaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Some hope for Feb. Nice...Lake Erie should mostly be open for business too through early Feb at least. Satellite today shows that ice cover is pretty much limited to the far southern basin and along the edges - http://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov/modis/modis.php?region=e&page=1&template=subℑ=t1.16025.1549.LakeErie.143.250m.jpg We also look to average above freezing over the next week, so I wouldn't expect any accelerated freezing in the short-term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 25, 2016 Author Share Posted January 25, 2016 Nice...Lake Erie should mostly be open for business too through early Feb at least. Satellite today shows that ice cover is pretty much limited to the far southern basin and along the edges - http://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov/modis/modis.php?region=e&page=1&template=subℑ=t1.16025.1549.LakeErie.143.250m.jpg We also look to average above freezing over the next week, so I wouldn't expect any accelerated freezing in the short-term. Yeah, it's not freezing this year. It usually doesn't in strong El Nino seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Sad day for WNY weather enthusiasts. One of the only good Mets in WNY. I like Todd Santos, Mike Cejka, and Andy Parker but Don was great. http://talkintv.buffalonews.com/2016/01/25/ch-4-meteorologist-don-paul-expected-to-announce-retirement-on-6-p-m-newscast/ Not really a fan of Cejka, who more and more has been churning out verbatim short range model output. But Don Paul's pattern recognition skills and experience with WNY climate will be very hard to replace. IMO he's easily the top on camera met in the area. I'll stick with Channel 4 because they're the only local station who make strong met hires, but it'll take Todd Santos a good while to catch up to Don's years of experience and knowledge of local conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Yeah, it's not freezing this year. It usually doesn't in strong El Nino seasons. Agree it's highly unlikely, but wouldn't say impossible. I know last February isn't happening again (thankfully...that was even too cold for me), but I've seen the lake ice over very quickly when we string a few nights together of near or below zero temps. But I would definitely bet against a complete freeze this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 25, 2016 Author Share Posted January 25, 2016 Agree it's highly unlikely, but wouldn't say impossible. I know last February isn't happening again (thankfully...that was even too cold for me), but I've seen the lake ice over very quickly when we string a few nights together of near or below zero temps. But I would definitely bet against a complete freeze this year. Definitely agree, i think it will freeze but not the 90%+ needed to completely freeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 haven't posted here in a while.... well below normal snow and mild temps (although not the blowtorch some media had portrayed) this year incredibly tepid winter, especially after the last 2 ice bucket winters. I don't know how much snow we have received exactly in saint albans vt this year as I don't know how to get official measurements, but its not much, cant be much more than 24 inches or so. Montreal has seen 29.1 inches of snow so far this year Ottawa has seen only 21.6 inches this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Some hope for Feb. Nice read..Isotherm is one of the best on here..Gfs has the cold pouring in after the 3rd/4th storm, 850's get down to -26c..Long range always a crap shoot.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Got to say, that discussion in the Mid Atlantic forum about snow measurement at DCA during the 1/23 storm is peak weenie. People are sincerely calling for heads to roll over an inch or two. We all know around here that that measurement siting matters, that KSYR is at the high end of Syracuse metro and KROC is at the low end of Rochester metro, but the real issue is longitudinal climate records, and also that extreme events will result in some inaccuracies. Anyone really know how much snow fell in Snovember? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Got to say, that discussion in the Mid Atlantic forum about snow measurement at DCA during the 1/23 storm is peak weenie. People are sincerely calling for heads to roll over an inch or two. We all know around here that that measurement siting matters, that KSYR is at the high end of Syracuse metro and KROC is at the low end of Rochester metro, but the real issue is longitudinal climate records, and also that extreme events will result in some inaccuracies. Anyone really know how much snow fell in Snovember? Personally from living down here, it actually isn't weenie. When dealing with this kind of snowfall, measurement accuracy is really important because there is an economic side that gets thrown into the mix. A top tier storm would provide more economic favor for snow removal and community assistance conparitively if we're just talking about a Top 10 instead of a Top 3. Plus, this has been an ongoing issue at that location and is something that needs to be addressed. There's no point in having a measurement there if they are consistently off with totals. Not a single measurement near them from spotters or local is lower than 19.5" so how in the hell are they getting 17.9?? Plus, it ends up effecting the Nesis scale a little bit. They have 1-3"/hr bands air over the region last 2-4 hours of the storm and only went up 3". BS to the 1000000 power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Can't wait to go LES chasing this week. Starting Thursday hopefully. Visiting Tug of course. Looks like some Clipper action at least per the Euro and GFS. Then end of trip could be interesting to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 No shortage of activity on the gfs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 26, 2016 Author Share Posted January 26, 2016 Not really a fan of Cejka, who more and more has been churning out verbatim short range model output. But Don Paul's pattern recognition skills and experience with WNY climate will be very hard to replace. IMO he's easily the top on camera met in the area. I'll stick with Channel 4 because they're the only local station who make strong met hires, but it'll take Todd Santos a good while to catch up to Don's years of experience and knowledge of local conditions. I remember Andy Parker predicting a few events before any other Met did. 2006 was the one that stood out to me the most. He was the only on channel met who predicted very heavy accumulations for Metro during that. If I had to rank it would be Paul, Parker a close 2nd for me, Aaron isn't bad from channel 7 either/Santos, and then Cejka. I stay away from Channel 2 completely. They are terrible... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 26, 2016 Author Share Posted January 26, 2016 haven't posted here in a while.... well below normal snow and mild temps (although not the blowtorch some media had portrayed) this year incredibly tepid winter, especially after the last 2 ice bucket winters. I don't know how much snow we have received exactly in saint albans vt this year as I don't know how to get official measurements, but its not much, cant be much more than 24 inches or so. Montreal has seen 29.1 inches of snow so far this year Ottawa has seen only 21.6 inches this year Great to have another poster here, I recognize your name from Eastern Weather before the transfer. We kind of got left out to dry here during the switch with so few posters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 26, 2016 Author Share Posted January 26, 2016 Got to say, that discussion in the Mid Atlantic forum about snow measurement at DCA during the 1/23 storm is peak weenie. People are sincerely calling for heads to roll over an inch or two. We all know around here that that measurement siting matters, that KSYR is at the high end of Syracuse metro and KROC is at the low end of Rochester metro, but the real issue is longitudinal climate records, and also that extreme events will result in some inaccuracies. Anyone really know how much snow fell in Snovember? I can understand being frustrated with measurements, especially when you're dealing with a possible record breaking storm. As weather enthusiast proper measurements are huge in determining historical significance. In this case it was just a downright travesty in what unfolded down there. I think the recording stations around here do quite well with measurements overall. You should see the Cleveland posters and how mad they get at their recording stations. In regards to Snowvember it's highly controversial in exactly how much fell. Most people can gather a good idea on who much fell based on SWE. For instance, Orchard Park had a SWE value of 6.3". Hamburg, East Aurora, Elma, Cowlesville all received more than those locations. When speaking to KBUF they mentioned in the hardest hit areas the SWE(Snow water Equivalent) was between 6-8". If you use standard Lake effect ratios of 1:20 that would yield totals of 120-160". Obviously that is far higher than what was received. The ratios were much lower in this event and more similar to what a synoptic event would bring. When also speaking with some other Mets who were in the storm it seemed around 1:14/1:15 would be the average ratio during this storm. That would yield totals of 84-112" on total. There was a Cocorahs station that recorded 92" storm total and I had 88.5" here in Hamburg. I didn't have the official equipment to document SWE like I do now. So if it ever happens again I'm prepared. It just came down so fast and hard that to measure very 6 hours effectively was virtually impossible. But to answer your question I do feel like someone in the hardest hit areas got over 100". These QPF/SWE would prove that to be true. With that much snow it's easy to get measurements wrong if you don't swipe the board every 6 hours, the pure weight of the snow would compact those totals substantially. Even the official Cocarahs reporters don't document everyday. There are many occasions where I see the nearest one to me not adding amounts under an inch to there totals even though they definitely received them. .1 to .9" every couple days add up over the course of a long winter. This chart actually shows max SWE of 9" which would be overboard by a tad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 26, 2016 Author Share Posted January 26, 2016 Personally from living down here, it actually isn't weenie. When dealing with this kind of snowfall, measurement accuracy is really important because there is an economic side that gets thrown into the mix. A top tier storm would provide more economic favor for snow removal and community assistance conparitively if we're just talking about a Top 10 instead of a Top 3. Plus, this has been an ongoing issue at that location and is something that needs to be addressed. There's no point in having a measurement there if they are consistently off with totals. Not a single measurement near them from spotters or local is lower than 19.5" so how in the hell are they getting 17.9?? Plus, it ends up effecting the Nesis scale a little bit. They have 1-3"/hr bands air over the region last 2-4 hours of the storm and only went up 3". BS to the 1000000 power. I found it funny that they said they lost their snowboard in the middle of the event. First of all how is that even possible, and second of all don't you think the DC NWS should have a back-up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 26, 2016 Author Share Posted January 26, 2016 Can't wait to go LES chasing this week. Starting Thursday hopefully. Visiting Tug of course. Looks like some Clipper action at least per the Euro and GFS. Then end of trip could be interesting to say the least. I really hope we get a good set-up when you come up. I'm not seeing to much cold air to generate a large event, but maybe the first week of Feb will have something to offer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 26, 2016 Author Share Posted January 26, 2016 No shortage of activity on the gfs.. gfs_tprecip_syracuse_41.png At the very least it won't be dry and boring and will have stuff to actually track. It's been awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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