AppsRunner Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Dying to get a real snowstorm when I get back... 2" is my biggest event of the season here in OH. Pattern certainly supports storms, just a matter of where Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
champy Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 There may be full scale weenie meltdowns in the NE thread if that storm misses them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 There may be full scale weenie meltdowns in the NE thread if that storm misses them. If there's suppression, the meltdowns will continue into a couple other forums. And the hype over some of this QPF model output is so over the top in the MA forum that anything under 30" is going to be a disappointment. Funny thing is, even if they had Snowmageddon II, it would all melt by next Wednesday. I'm kind of glad this was a miss for us from the get-go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 There may be full scale weenie meltdowns in the NE thread if that storm misses them. I'm just not feeling this storm for areas north of about DC. No rooting interest for me either way, but the set-up doesn't seem that great - retreating cold air mass and ridge out west pushing east would seem to indicate a storm that wants to slide out to sea and not gain much latitude. Hope I'm wrong for the NYC/New England folks rooting hard for a storm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Hope I'm wrong for the NYC/New England folks rooting hard for a storm.... Yeah, this will be a hard one for them to take. My FB feed lags this forum by about 24 hours, so the weenies there are gonna crash really hard. Maybe after the next warm-up they'll cash in, if it isn't too late by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 About 9" of snow fell here at SU today! Still snowing at around 2"/hr.!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Polarbear Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I left Fulton around 3:30 PM with about 13" new on the day, 19" storm total. Left just as the band moved south. Ride home to B'lo was an adventure...hit the band again right at the Rt. 34/104 intersection. Passed about 10 vehicles off the road to that point. White-out conditions started at Bethel. Made it about 3 miles from Cato at which point multiple cars stopped in front of me on a hill. Heard road was completely blocked just over the hill, so nowhere to go but back...drove back through the heart of the band to 104, then down to Rt. 38. So now I'm thinking I would drive back through it for a brief time and make it to the 90 in Weedsport no problem. Um, not so much. Entire way down Rt. 38 to Port Byron was intense snow rates, frequent white-outs, and never quite sure if i was on the road or about to dive into a ditch. I'm thinking, WTF, the band can't be that wide! Finally able to check the radar when I got to the 90 and saw that the band basically sunk south off the lake and followed me all the way to Weedsport. Ride down the 90 was in and out of heavy snow the whole way as well. All told a crazy 5 hour journey, but thankful to have made it home safely. I've had a couple sketchy trips on Rt 34 myself.. The first time I had to go down the rd was 4-5 yrs ago, it was mid morning and I was in a semi (empty) in just as crazy snowfall. i couldnt see the road or lines and was basically driving off rd signs ( a couple times i was seeing them out the wrong window!!!) with about 4-5" on the rd.... Got to just south of Cato sun was out... Then I had to turn around and come back loaded(102,000lbs) I remember starting to spin out towards the top of one those hills but thankfully double lockers in the truck got me over.. That was some of the crazy 10-12 miles each way I've ever driven in... How was 104?? It's been a few yes since ive driven up there in the winter but I found 104 and rt3 seemed to be better condition then 34 or 38.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 About 9" of snow fell here at SU today! Still snowing at around 2"/hr.!! 9" downtown? Wow. I work in pool and I'd guess a few inches fell. Here at home, maybe an inch... I can't call these two LES events a bust, cuz beggars can't be choosers, and Lake Effect is very problematic SE of the lake, but we certainly didn't come close to the 18-24" forecasted for these two events (15" and 12"). Weekend system looks like a no go for CNY. In fact, I suspect the interior MA may be the only place along the east coast that sees >6-12". A more out to sea solution makes sense with not much in the way of serious blocking upstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Finished with 15.5" total imby, nws has advisory's up for the potential of a few more inches.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The almost 2" of lake effect recently is my single largest snowfall this season (a little over 6" total since November). Parts of Kentucky may match that tonight and tomorrow Snow has been relatively stingy to ENY the past handful of seasons (compared to areas to my south and east anyway). One of these years we'll even out and have a series of coast huggers to enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 NWS Buf keeps mentioning meso models and uncertainty for the South shore tonight? I wonder what model is giving them angina? I can see the radar lighting up. I wonder if someone between Roc and Oswego ends up with a 'surprise' foot of super light powder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Fulton FTW for the win from these obs...although Perrysburg is dated 1/18. I assume they had more snow yesterday and today. SPOTTER REPORTSNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY1153 AM EST WED JAN 20 2016THE FOLLOWING ARE OBSERVATIONS TAKEN FROM THIS PAST SUNDAY THROUGHLATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW THAT HAS BEENAFFECTING OUR REGION. APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED TO ALL PARTNERS FORTHESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR HOME PAGE ATWEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTSSNOWFALL OF/INCHES/ MEASUREMENTNEW YORK...ALLEGANY COUNTY...4 SW WEST ALMOND 5.2 1000 AM 1/20 COCORAHS...CATTARAUGUS COUNTY...LITTLE VALLEY 18.5 700 AM 1/20 COOP OBSERVERPERRYSBURG 18.0 800 AM 1/18 COOP OBSERVER1 ENE RANDOLPH 16.0 700 AM 1/19 COCORAHS1 NNE FRANKLINVILLE 14.5 709 AM 1/19 COCORAHS5 N ALLEGANY 9.8 700 AM 1/20 COCORAHS1 SSW FRANKLINVILLE 5.5 700 AM 1/20 COOP OBSERVER1 WSW OLEAN 5.0 730 AM 1/19 COOP OBSERVER1 NE OLEAN 4.3 800 AM 1/20 COCORAHSALLEGANY 4.0 747 AM 1/18 PUBLICHUMPHERY 3.8 830 AM 1/18 TRAINED SPOTTER...CAYUGA COUNTY...MARTVILLE 12.0 1100 AM 1/19 OTHER FEDERALSTERLING 9.0 239 PM 1/18 TRAINED SPOTTER...CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY...MAYVILLE 12.0 604 PM 1/18 TRAINED SPOTTER4 ENE JAMESTOWN 11.4 700 AM 1/20 COOP OBSERVER2 SW FORESTVILLE 8.5 1250 PM 1/18 COCORAHS1 N SHERMAN 8.0 1017 PM 1/17 SOCIAL MEDIA3 SSE FREWSBURG 5.8 745 AM 1/20 COCORAHS1 WNW FREDONIA 4.9 500 AM 1/19 COCORAHS...ERIE COUNTY...EAST CONCORD 16.7 545 AM 1/19 TRAINED SPOTTERSARDINIA 11.8 758 PM 1/18 FIRE DEPT/RESCUE2 ENE COLDEN 7.6 800 AM 1/20 COCORAHS2 SE GLENWOOD 7.2 800 AM 1/20 COCORAHS1 N CLARENCE CENTER 6.4 700 AM 1/19 COCORAHSSNYDER 6.0 534 PM 1/17 PUBLIC3 E WILLIAMSVILLE 6.0 700 AM 1/18 COCORAHS3 NE CHEEKTOWAGA 5.9 700 AM 1/19 COCORAHSBUFFALO AIRPORT 5.9 654 AM 1/19 ASOS2 NW CHEEKTOWAGA 5.6 735 AM 1/18 COCORAHSWILLIAMSVILLE 5.0 701 PM 1/17 NWS EMPLOYEE5 NNE AMHERST 4.8 800 AM 1/19 COCORAHSKENMORE 4.0 608 PM 1/17 NWS EMPLOYEE2 NE BOSTON 4.0 800 AM 1/19 COCORAHS1 NW KENMORE 3.8 600 AM 1/18 COCORAHS2 NNW WILLIAMSVILLE 3.7 900 AM 1/18 COCORAHS5 WNW CLARENCE CENTE 3.5 700 AM 1/19 COCORAHS4 SSE BUFFALO 3.5 645 AM 1/18 COCORAHS...JEFFERSON COUNTY...SE MANNSVILLE 16.0 700 AM 1/18 COCORAHSLORRAINE 12.0 940 AM 1/18 SOCIAL MEDIA5 ENE CAPE VINCENT 7.0 1030 PM 1/17 PUBLIC1 WSW WATERTOWN 4.8 600 AM 1/18 COCORAHS...LEWIS COUNTY...1 E OSCEOLA 15.0 615 AM 1/20 PUBLIC1 NW CONSTABLEVILLE 5.1 500 AM 1/20 COCORAHSHIGHMARKET 4.1 344 AM 1/20 COOP OBSERVER...LIVINGSTON COUNTY...4 WSW DANSVILLE 4.9 600 AM 1/20 COCORAHS...MONROE COUNTY...1 ESE IRONDEQUOIT 13.0 630 AM 1/19 SOCIAL MEDIAFOREST LAWN 8.0 130 AM 1/19 SOCIAL MEDIA2 NE WEBSTER 7.5 800 PM 1/19 COOP OBSERVER5 W ROCHESTER 7.3 730 AM 1/20 COCORAHSROCHESTER AIRPORT 7.2 700 AM 1/20 ASOS3 W WEBSTER 6.7 1159 PM 1/19 COCORAHS5 WNW ROCHESTER 6.1 700 AM 1/20 COCORAHS2 ENE BROCKPORT 5.6 1000 AM 1/19 COCORAHS4 E ROCHESTER 4.7 700 AM 1/19 COCORAHS4 WNW WEBSTER 3.9 900 AM 1/19 COCORAHS...NIAGARA COUNTY...1 NE LOCKPORT 6.1 700 AM 1/19 COCORAHS6 E NIAGARA FALLS 5.4 747 AM 1/19 COCORAHS1 NNE NORTH TONAWAND 4.4 700 AM 1/19 COCORAHS...OSWEGO COUNTY...W FULTON 22.4 230 AM 1/20 COCORAHS8 NNW REDFIELD 19.0 500 AM 1/18 COCORAHSFULTON 17.0 529 PM 1/18 TRAINED SPOTTER1 NE PULASKI 11.0 600 AM 1/19 COCORAHSPULASKI 11.0 600 AM 1/18 COOP OBSERVER4 SSE LACONA 10.1 700 AM 1/18 COCORAHSCENTRAL SQUARE 8.0 130 PM 1/18 TRAINED SPOTTER5 ESE OSWEGO 6.9 600 AM 1/18 COCORAHS1 NNW FULTON 6.0 700 AM 1/18 COCORAHS2 SSE PALERMO 5.5 600 AM 1/18 COOP OBSERVER7 NNE PHOENIX 5.0 600 AM 1/18 COCORAHSLACONA 4.6 430 PM 1/19 COCORAHSSE MINETTO 4.2 700 AM 1/18 COCORAHS...WAYNE COUNTY...2 NE MARION 9.5 700 AM 1/20 COCORAHS3 W PORT BAY 7.0 238 PM 1/19 TRAINED SPOTTER2 SW WALWORTH 6.1 700 AM 1/20 COCORAHS2 NW PALMYRA 4.1 800 AM 1/20 COCORAHS...WYOMING COUNTY...ARCADE 11.0 300 AM 1/19 TRAINED SPOTTER6 SW WARSAW 8.0 430 AM 1/20 COOP OBSERVER3 W WYOMING 4.4 700 AM 1/20 COOP OBSERVER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The almost 2" of lake effect recently is my single largest snowfall this season (a little over 6" total since November). Parts of Kentucky may match that tonight and tomorrow Snow has been relatively stingy to ENY the past handful of seasons (compared to areas to my south and east anyway). One of these years we'll even out and have a series of coast huggers to enjoy. The absence of synoptic snow across all of upstate NY is actually quite mind boggling at this point. I can't think of any snow we've had in BUF that hasn't been pure lake effect or lake enhanced. Seeing places like DC have blizzard watches must be tough to swallow for folks in upstate NY outside lake effect snow areas sitting on 5 inches or less for the entire season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
champy Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The absence of synoptic snow across all of upstate NY is actually quite mind boggling at this point. I can't think of any snow we've had in BUF that hasn't been pure lake effect or lake enhanced. Seeing places like DC have blizzard watches must be tough to swallow for folks in upstate NY outside lake effect snow areas sitting on 5 inches or less for the entire season. yep, sucks lol....I mean, we can't even buy an overrunning event! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Joe bastardi say another stratospheric warming event in next few weeks. Says February into march will be wild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 The absence of synoptic snow across all of upstate NY is actually quite mind boggling at this point. I can't think of any snow we've had in BUF that hasn't been pure lake effect or lake enhanced. Seeing places like DC have blizzard watches must be tough to swallow for folks in upstate NY outside lake effect snow areas sitting on 5 inches or less for the entire season. I don't even remember our last synoptic system? Sometime in February right? I think Upstate has a decent Mid Feb to Late March in regards to synoptic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 Joe bastardi say another stratospheric warming event in next few weeks. Says February into march will be wild Major stratwarm event next 4 wks.Known precursor to cold N American pattern. 2/10-3/1 wild again HT tropical tidbits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 Erie is dropping fast, Ice forming on the far western basin. Still some 40 degree temps in the deepest part of the lake though. Should take quite awhile before we get down to 32 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 I think we see about normal temps for the next week-10 days than a warm-up. Following that the pattern looks to get better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Looks like a quick 2 to 4 inches on south shore next couple hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Would not be shocked if ne flow drops few inches fri into sat as storm heads up coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Would not be shocked if ne flow drops few inches fri into sat as storm heads up coast. 850's only look to be about -6 or -8 during that timeframe and the lower part of the column is absolutely bone dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I have much respect for the NWS...however...they just don't seem to have a handle on LES, especially along the South shore. Just overnight, we received almost 12" new in NE Webster - and it's still coming down at ~1"/hr, causing major traffic issues. I know they raised advisories for Monroe & Wayne, but considering we were under a warning for almost 2 days earlier in the week and only squeaked out 4" or so...something's just not right. What are they missing? Do we need a radar site between BUF & SYR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Yeah, this morning is a perfect example of how Rochester averages 100" of snow each year. I think we've picked up 2-3" since midnight and snowing pretty heavily. We don't get the "big ones", but 20-30 days with 2" adds up. Beautiful out there right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Irondequoit coming in at 9". And still snowing hard. Very localized last night. Perfect N flow on calm winds. Snowed like crazy! Surprise! Most of it showed on radar. Very high ratios ~20/1. They simply have not figured out how to fcst South Lake Ontario LES. Maybe it's so meso they can't. I haven't either ( a given). Hell, I might of just gotten more snow than NYC gets Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I swear we get some of our best pure LES events when no prior advisory/warning is issued...today is hardly the first time this has occurred. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Yep Vortmax! And often when their typical 'lake parameters' don't look impressive and air is dry. I've seen this many times. I can't predict it but recognize it when it starts. Usually: after fcst lake event, i.e. On back side of bust, low winds from NNW and a convergence zone. Winds just on shore were SW for a majority. The radar on these events almost always shows some kind of circulation. Usually a micro low circ/ counter clockwise. Last nights was clockwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Yup our best lake snow usually not forecasted. South shore pulls a good event out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I have much respect for the NWS...however...they just don't seem to have a handle on LES, especially along the South shore. Just overnight, we received almost 12" new in NE Webster - and it's still coming down at ~1"/hr, causing major traffic issues. I know they raised advisories for Monroe & Wayne, but considering we were under a warning for almost 2 days earlier in the week and only squeaked out 4" or so...something's just not right. What are they missing? Do we need a radar site between BUF & SYR? Tea Kettling events are very hard to forecast and affect absolutely tiny areas of the lake shore. It was a tough call for them. The snow is usually pure fluff and not a huge deal to clean up. I wouldnt give them too hard a time, its not like they are missing major events that impact large metro areas with well modeled bands. These events almost drop below mesoscale resolution sometimes. Oh well, I'll gladly take the bonus 2-3 inches I woke up to. I do agree that a radar in Rochester would be fantastic and drastically improve their nowcasting abilities. It won't happen though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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