WNash Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 I should add, I really like the 24/48/72 WPC maps for trending. They give you a perspective that you cannot get at the WFO scale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 LES warnings up for the typical tug (Oswego/Lewis/Jefferson) for 6-12". Looks like a round of 260-270 flow and then veering to 280-285ish. Off Erie looks good as well. Should be the first "true" LES event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 21, 2015 Author Share Posted November 21, 2015 2 shots at lake effect snow for Metro Buffalo. I think top totals are a little over a foot in the hot spots of both lakes. EXPECT A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN TO DEVELOP FROM BUFFALO TO BATAVIAAFTER ABOUT 2 AM AS COLD AIR BEGINS TO DEEPEN. THIS BAND WILL SINKSOUTHWARD TO SOUTHERN ERIE AND WYOMING COUNTIES AND THE CHAUTAUQUACOUNTY LAKESHORE BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. BY THIS TIME THE AIRMASS WILLGROW COLD ENOUGH TO ALLOW SNOW TO MIX IN...AND PROBABLY CHANGE TOALL SNOW ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.EXPECT A FIRST PEAK IN BAND INTENSITY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE SNOWSINKS INTO CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES. FOLLOWING THIS...EXPECT THE SNOW TO BECOME WEAKER AND DISORGANIZED FOR AT LEAST A FEWHOURS FROM MIDDAY SUNDAY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS DRY AIR AND SOMESHEAR INCREASE OVER LAKE ERIE. EXPECT SNOW AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHESLOCALLY FROM VERY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INPERSISTENT BANDS WITH VERY UNEVEN COVERAGE. THOSE AMOUNTS WILL BECONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH THE LAKESHORE SEEING LITTLEACCUMULATION DUE TO THE WARMING INFLUENCE OF THE LAKE AND NO BENEFITFROM UPSLOPE FLOW.OFF LAKE ONTARIO...EXPECT A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN MIXED WITH WET SNOW TO DEVELOPACROSS JEFFERSON COUNTY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING INCLUDING NEARWATERTOWN. THIS BAND WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE TUG HILL PLATEAUDURING THE DAY. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD THROUGH MUCHOF THE DAY AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND LITTLEACCUMULATION. A CHANGE TO ALL SNOW WILL BE CONFINED TO THE TUG HILLPLATEAU WHERE A FEW INCHES MAY ACCUMULATE DURING THE DAY. SIMILAR TOLAKE ERIE...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF DISORGANIZATION DURING THEAFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR BUILDS OVER THE LAKE.BOTH THE LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BESTORGANIZED SUNDAY NIGHT...MORE ON THAT IN THE SHORT TERM SECTIONBELOW. OFF LAKE ERIE... CONTINUING TO DIAL IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE LAKEEFFECT BAND OVERNIGHT. THE MEAN STEERING FLOW IS VERY WESTERLY... ATABOUT 270 TO 280 DEGREES. THUS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER IS MOSTLIKELY TO SEE THE GREATEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. LOCATIONS ACROSSSOUTHERN ERIE COUNTY AND SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING WILL LIKELY BE ON THENORTHERN EDGE OF THIS BAND AND SHOULD SEE OVERALL LESSER IMPACTSTHROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CURRENTLY EXPECT NIGHTTIME ACCUMULATIONSIN THE HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOWS FROM 4 TO 6 INCHES... WITH THEHIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS HIGHER HILLS OF CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUSCOUNTIES. EXPECT THIS TO PUSH STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS INTO THE 6 TO 10INCH RANGE IN THE HEAVIEST LAKE EFFECT SNOWS IN THE WESTERN SOUTHERNTIER... AND THUS HAVE POSTED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING THERE. FORSOUTHERN ERIE AND WYOMING COUNTIES... EXPECT LESSER STORM TOTALAMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES... AND THUS HAVE POSTED A LAKE EFFECT SNOWADVISORY THERE.OFF LAKE ONTARIO... AGAIN CONFIDENCE IN LAKE EFFECT BAND PLACEMENTCONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. JUST AS IN LAKE ERIE...EXPECT SNOW BAND ORGANIZATION AND SNOWFALL RATES TO INCREASEOVERNIGHT... BEING AIDED BY INCREASED DIURNAL CONVERGENCE ON THELAKE. WHILE THE BAND MAY IMPACT WATERTOWN BRIEFLY IN THE EVENING ANDOSWEGO BRIEFLY MONDAY MORNING... THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME IT WILLREMAIN CENTERED OVER THE TUG HILL. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE...UPSLOPEFLOW ON THE TUG HILL LOCALLY ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES AND AMOUNTS.LAKE ONTARIO WILL SUPPORT SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES... WITHTHE HIGHEST AMOUNTS CENTERED ON THE TUG HILL... TAPERING OFF QUICKLYTOWARD WATERTOWN ON THE NORTH SIDE AND OSWEGO ON THE SOUTH SIDE.BY MID-MORNING MONDAY... EXPECT LAKE EFFECT BANDS OFF BOTH LAKES TODECREASE IN INTENSITY AND LIFT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHINGSHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS. THEBUFFALO METRO AREA SHOULD PAY PARTICULAR ATTENTION TO HOW THIS MAYIMPACT THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN HOWSTRONG THE BAND OF SNOW WILL BE WHEN IT SWINGS NORTH ACROSS THEBUFFALO AREA... AND ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY ONLY BE AROUND ANINCH OR SO... BUT IT COULD BE TIMED WELL TO BRING A BURST OFMODERATE SNOW MAKING FOR A MESSY MORNING COMMUTE. THE NORTHWARD PUSHOF THE LAKE ONTARIO BAND WILL LAG ABOUT 2 TO 3 HOURS BEHIND THE LAKEERIE BAND... AND SHOULD GET INTO WATERTOWN BY MID TO LATE MORNING INA WEAKENING STATE.EXPECT A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION THROUGH MID-DAY MONDAY BEFORESOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.SYNOPTIC FORCING AND MOISTURE SUPPLY INCREASES SHARPLY IN THE LATEAFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. THE WELL ALIGNED AND COLDSOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD PROVIDE A LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE ERIETHAT WILL COINCIDE WITH THE LIGHTER SYNOPTIC SNOW. AS THE ASSOCIATEDSURFACE FRONT PLOWS THROUGH IN THE EVENING... EXPECT ANOTHER BURSTOF MODERATE SNOW ACROSS NIAGARA FALLS AND BUFFALO METRO AREAS AS ITMOVES QUICKLY SOUTHWARD BACK INTO SKI COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. TIMINGREMAINS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN... BUT THIS BURST OF GUSTY WINDS ANDMODERATE SNOW COULD BE AGAIN TIMED TO HIT THE LATTER PORTION OF THEEVENING COMMUTE IN NIAGARA FALLS AND BUFFALO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 21, 2015 Author Share Posted November 21, 2015 High Wind Warning #5 for the month? crazy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 22, 2015 Author Share Posted November 22, 2015 Pretty lame lake effect band so far. Looks like one of those late season events that gets affected for diurnal reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Speedbird747 Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 First accumulation of the season... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 22, 2015 Author Share Posted November 22, 2015 First accumulation of the season... Awesome pic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 LES warning cancelled off Ontario. Low/Mid level ridging is going to murder the attempt of West flow and moisture is awful. Hopefully this won't be the trend this season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Speedbird747 Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 Lol, at least I saw something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 22, 2015 Author Share Posted November 22, 2015 LES warning cancelled off Ontario. Low/Mid level ridging is going to murder the attempt of West flow and moisture is awful. Hopefully this won't be the trend this season Yeah the dry air just killed this event. The last 2 days of model runs definitely worried me. The popcorn type LES showers never amount to much accumulations. It's starting to blossom a bit now, but believe the winds go directly south soon which would keep most of it offshore overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 22, 2015 Author Share Posted November 22, 2015 Should get a decent snow shower moving on shore soon here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 22, 2015 Author Share Posted November 22, 2015 Some places in the southern tier are at or over 15" on the season between the 3 events so far this year. Average November snowfall down there is probably 15-25". NEW YORK...CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY...5 NE GERRY 4.5 200 PM 11/22 TRAINED SPOTTERELLERY CENTER 4.5 200 PM 11/22 DEPT OF HIGHWAYS ...CATTARAUGUS COUNTY...LITTLE VALLEY 3.8 700 AM 11/22 COOP OBSERVER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 22, 2015 Author Share Posted November 22, 2015 That warm up around thanksgiving is getting shorter each model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 1st light accumulation of the season! Currently 33° with light snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 23, 2015 Author Share Posted November 23, 2015 1st light accumulation of the season! Currently 33° with light snow.. Nice! Decent band just moved over your area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 Brief period of heavy snow here got us about 3/4". Vis at our tower briefly got to 1/5 SM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 Lake snow briefly blossomed across the area this evening, snowed pretty heavily for a half hour or so...picked up a quick 1-1.5". First measurable snow of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 Some places in the southern tier are at or over 15" on the season between the 3 events so far this year. Average November snowfall down there is probably 15-25". NEW YORK ...CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY... 5 NE GERRY 4.5 200 PM 11/22 TRAINED SPOTTER ELLERY CENTER 4.5 200 PM 11/22 DEPT OF HIGHWAYS ...CATTARAUGUS COUNTY... LITTLE VALLEY 3.8 700 AM 11/22 COOP OBSERVER That's about right, i did a quick detour yesterday and drove through the band and the snowcover was depedent on the elevation, not even a trace of snow near Fredonia while 6 miles SE of it had about 4-5" of snow on the ground. Little Valley,NY Cherry Creek,NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 Had one more burst at some point to pick up a couple inches total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 Well ROC is finally on the board for the season. Picked up a quick inch last night when the ragged Ontario band crashed the south shore around midnight. Feels good to be back in the game even though I know this is shortlived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 23, 2015 Author Share Posted November 23, 2015 Long term looks decent actually for December so far. It's not a completely dominant pac flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 Picked up 1.5" in southern Fulton.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 What a surprise to wake up to 6" of snow this morning, did a double take when i looked out the window Lol. Even got to take the new snowmobile out around the house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 Long term looks decent actually for December so far. It's not a completely dominant pac flow. I'm not seeing what you are seeing, heading into December looks dismal to say the least. I'm already writing off December. Hoping we can turn things around in January. Looks like a real soft start to this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 Hey all. Hope everyone who is getting snow is enjoying it today. Just wanted to stop by and say I'm starting up a snowfall contest in the PA thread. If anyone wants to join, just submit an entry and I'll be starting a thread once we reach 10+ entries. Would like to do something fun for the winter. Any questions, just PM me and I'll answer back when I can. Thanks!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 24, 2015 Author Share Posted November 24, 2015 I'm not seeing what you are seeing, heading into December looks dismal to say the least. I'm already writing off December. Hoping we can turn things around in January. Looks like a real soft start to this winter. The latest model trends do not look good at all for the next 2 weeks. They were looking better before, but changed quite a bit. Obviously the cold air is just not there, but was hoping we could sneak in a nice synoptic system similar to what Chicago/Detriot just got next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 24, 2015 Author Share Posted November 24, 2015 Judah Cowen says a good winter in the Northeast. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/11/24/innovating-forecaster-highlights-potential-for-very-snowy-winter-in-mid-atlantic-d-c/ "Cohen, whose winter outlooks boast a 75 percent accuracy rate over the 15 years he’s issued them, has developed a model for predicting winter conditions that is strongly based on snowfall in Eurasia during October. When snow rapidly piles up in Eurasia at that time, it sets off a chain reaction that he says is linked to cold and often snowy conditions in the eastern U.S. during winter." I do expect in December and January a weakening of the polar vortex, followed by an extended period where the AO is predominantly in the negative phase. I see no physical or plausible reason why if El Niño is moderate it necessarily forces a cold winter but, if it’s just a little stronger, it forces a warm winter. Sure both the winters of 1982-83 and 1997-98 were relatively mild but that is only a sample size of two. What justification is there to treat those two winters as there own special category? He has some nice graphs/data to back up his sentiments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 24, 2015 Author Share Posted November 24, 2015 Monthly Temps at KBUF for 2015 Nov: +6 Oct: +.6 Sep: +5.1 Aug: +.1 July: -.1 June: -.7 May: +5.7 April: -.1 Mar: -4.8 Feb: -15.4 Jan: -4.5 In the 2 strongest El Nino years the fall was cooler than average. During this one it is much warmer than average. It defys the resemblance to 82 and 97 years. This year will definitely be a good analog for future Ninos as it has substantial differences from the other 2 record strong ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 I'm no expert on long range forecasting or teleconnections, El Nino, etc. But, I think the evolution of this winter will be very interesting and enlightening, as there are considerable global-scale differences (especially north Pacific SSTs) compared to some of the big El Ninos of the past. What will win out come January/February? Regardless, it does look like the pattern going into the first half of December and perhaps longer is going to be very mild. After last winter, I don't have a problem with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 25, 2015 Author Share Posted November 25, 2015 This is about as ugly as you can get for snow lovers. I may get some more beach days in December. We will almost certainly be passing the record for latest measurable snow at the airport in Buffalo. We might blow it out of the water if this is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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