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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: End of Fall/Into Winter!


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It never fails as the screw zone will once again prevail, lol.  The band has formed to the South of  Fulton and Oswego and I don't see it heading North, if anything its going further South by a few more miles!  That's why I cringe when the NWS mentions the Southern most part of Oswego County.  

 

Oh well, I head back to ME on Thursday and hope one of these upcoming synoptic events clobbers me, which seems easier than scoring a damn LES event, lol.  I'm so used to it now, that it doesn't even phase me anymore, as I already know its likely to drift further South.

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I think the LES band SE of L. Ontario will shift a little north later this morning...impacting SYR and northern suburbs.... as for the SE shoreline, it's always a tough call, just due to how narrow the band is near the lake shore.  But a line from the chimney of Cayuga county to Solvey/Baldwinsville area looks primed from the max totals through tonight....ie just north (5 miles or so) of the center line of the purple shade in the BGM snowfall map:

 

mod.jpg

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I think the LES band SE of L. Ontario will shift a little north later this morning...impacting SYR and northern suburbs.... as for the SE shoreline, it's always a tough call, just due to how narrow the band is near the lake shore.  But a line from the chimney of Cayuga county to Solvey/Baldwinsville area looks primed from the max totals through tonight....ie just north (5 miles or so) of the center line of the purple shade in the BGM snowfall map:

 

 

 

We'll see. They have Auburn/Skan at 12-18". As of this morning the band has yet to make it here and we're under clear and sunny skies.

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2.5" here overnight from Clipper related activity just No. of SYR...sun was out and lake band south of me when I got up...although it's just wavered north and it's snowing here now. KBGM forecast map now matches KBUF for my area, both 18-24"... Which made me chuckle as the sun was out this a.m. We shall see.

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I think the LES band SE of L. Ontario will shift a little north later this morning...impacting SYR and northern suburbs.... as for the SE shoreline, it's always a tough call, just due to how narrow the band is near the lake shore.  But a line from the chimney of Cayuga county to Solvey/Baldwinsville area looks primed from the max totals through tonight....ie just north (5 miles or so) of the center line of the purple shade in the BGM snowfall map:

 

mod.jpg

Hope you are right, that would bullseye me. With such a narrow band I'd hate to be on the hook to make a snowfall map...seems like it's inevitable there will be big busts where the band never makes it.

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Vis down to 1/4 mi. here at home (have MLK day off!! :) )  Band has shifted north, and the lake instability should peak from later this morning through the afternoon....imagine 2"/hr. stuff most of the day in the band...Hope it parks itself over our area Brian!!! :)

. Looks pretty good good George! My snowblower is fixed up and ready. Hopefully ski areas So. Of Syr can get into this...sons HS ski club starts this week and conditions down there have been....non existent until very recently...
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If nothing else I can say that is the most ridiculous model run I've ever had for my backyard. There is no chance that happens, zero, zilch, nada. It's fun to dream but that's just not how things work.

 

Has there ever been a NW flow lake effect event that produced anything near that kind of distribution/amount of snow in that area? Certainly not in the 12 years I've been here!

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