tim123 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Oddly enough from city south gets most. But figure can probally push band north 5 to 10 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 KBUF got 5" as of 4:55 PM. That strong band must have been hit and miss and not constant or they would of had double that. We have close to that here, its been coming down since 1 PM. Had a very heavy band around 2-4PM. Will be taking official measurement once event is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 5.8 inches here at 6pm. Looks like it's over for my area. Not to bad. Good forecast call IMO. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Ended up with about 7", and it probably should have been a warning in northern Erie - nice little bonus snow. Unless something drifts south this week, that's probably it for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Huge fluffy flakes falling right now..Coming down at a nice clip..About 1/2" or so.. Looks a little better at 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Ended up with about 7", and it probably should have been a warning in northern Erie - nice little bonus snow. Unless something drifts south this week, that's probably it for a while. We had 8.5" here thanks to those earlier intense rates we had at the onset. Wrf 18 z did it again. Most of monroe county burried. Gives .50. To. 1.25 for county. Another solid run for Orleans/Monroe county, let's see if we can keep the trend going.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 Ended up with about 7", and it probably should have been a warning in northern Erie - nice little bonus snow. Unless something drifts south this week, that's probably it for a while. Nice! I think you should get some minor snows with some Huron/Ontario bands that will cross most of Upstate. By Weds there is another clipper with some lake enhanced/Effect stuff on SW flow again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 We had 8.5" here thanks to those earlier intense rates we had at the onset. Another solid run for Orleans/Monroe county, let's see if we can keep the trend going.. Wow, those are both great runs for me, which is very rare! I've seen this setup a few times and done well, but I won't get my hopes up just yet though. Upstream connections from Superior/Huron are a long shot to predict with any real accuracy, but I have seen nearly the exact same band orientation about 2 times since I bought my current home in 2007 (I wish I could remember the specific dates). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Additionally, I just got two inches with the Arctic front/remnant lake band. Not a bad start to things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 Wow, those are both great runs for me, which is very rare! I've seen this setup a few times and done well, but I won't get my hopes up just yet though. Upstream connections from Superior/Huron are a long shot to predict with any real accuracy, but I have seen nearly the exact same band orientation about 2 times since I bought my current home in 2007 (I wish I could remember the specific dates). Hopefully you get hit good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 In have too seen this setup before. Dont know if i have seen if forecasted like this before. What get me is the duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Look upstream. Lake superior already connected to huron Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 This band means business Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 its the AF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 S++ here 3 miles East of KFYZ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 This band means business Screenshot_2016-01-17-21-05-25.png Yeah, that arctic front had some good rates for sure. Lake effect sets up almost immediately following the passage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Niagara will be under an advisory soon from the looks of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I'm stuck at work unfortunately.. My girl says at least 3"-4" has fallen.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Gfs shifted nw with weekend storm. Hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Wrf again very consistent. About 1 inch qpf for city of rochester. 2 inches orleans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Yeah, no QPF for Fulton, Oswego, and Northern Syracuse the places supposed to get the hardest hit? that has to be the worst model available. BTV's WRF is typically very good. It's not great outside 48 hours, but it's actually one of the best to use in terms of consistency/placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 BTV's WRF is typically very good. It's not great outside 48 hours, but it's actually one of the best to use in terms of consistency/placement. I never see really good success with it. Maybe within 24 hours. I mean 4" of QPF in Orleans county? Will see if it verifies and Albion gets 30" of snow based on 1.82" of QPF. Maybe placement, but certainly not QPF or intensity forecast...It's downright terrible at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 I don't see it affecting us. It could get close. These were the 18Z GFS ensembles. There is quite a bit of spread still. Gfs shifted nw with weekend storm. Hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 I think the synoptic pattern gets much more active in the coming weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Yes I am not saying its qpf is accurate. But its placement has been very consistant. Weekend storm probably not a huge deal but could see a few inches with some lake enhancement for south shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 0z GFS and NAM both backed off south shore LES accums for next 48 hrs as compared to 18z runs. But these are the low resolution models. It's obs time. I'm very bullish for anyone living in Northern Wayne county. Someone there sees over 12"! Monroe and Orleans are tricky. It could be Webster gets 6" while Henriettia gets 1". Go time for Rochester region looks to be sometime later tomorrow afternoon. As for the BIG storm, wouldn't it be odd if Virginia was the area of biggest snow after all of the NE has had a snow drought? Can't see this thing busting all previous trends and going South. I think and hope it trends NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Band is coming. Winds shifting over lake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Looking at RAP wind direction for next 18 hrs look west to wnw. I know it sounds like I'm hatin on snow but this just doesn't look great for Rochester. looking realistically at recent data, our best chance will be Tuesday AM. I wish I shared your enthusiasm Tim123 and many local Roc mets. I do hope I'm wrong. I gotta move to Hannibal or Syracuse. Tired of Kroc LES snow hole! I have Tuesday off, I'll try and find the snow and take some pics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Picked up 3.2" from the front.. Dink and dunk season continues.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I never see really good success with it. Maybe within 24 hours. I mean 4" of QPF in Orleans county? Will see if it verifies and Albion gets 30" of snow based on 1.82" of QPF. Maybe placement, but certainly not QPF or intensity forecast...It's downright terrible at it. It's not great with QPF totals but then again any extremely hi-res models perform perfectly and there's not a true way to measure QPF unless you have someone taking a core sample. It doesn't handle Erie bands as well from what I've seen. FWIW, it had about 0.75" with last event and it's placement was pretty close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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